Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hinge Health, Inc. stock $51.25, price $116, that is 55.7% below the price, quality 76 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 7 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
18‑month range $31.17 – $120.87 · fair‑value band $26.67 – $65.69 · the $115.76 price screens above the $51.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Hinge Health, Inc. focuses on building a health system that scales and automates the delivery of care using technology. It designs its platform to address musculoskeletal system care (MSK), including acute injury, chronic pain, and post-surgical rehabilitation.
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The company also provides personalized and automated MSK care through AI-powered motion tracking technology and a proprietary electrical nerve stimulation wearable device. It primarily serves self-insured employers. The company was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Stock analysis
Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE) currently trades at $115.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $51.25, 56% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $51.25 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the $115.76 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $23.85, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $26.67 (bear) to $65.69 (bull), the price of $115.76 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hinge Health, Inc. reported revenue of $588M in FY2025 versus $293M in FY2023, a compound +41.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$528M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $9.5B Mid · P/E ratio 31.7 · P/S ratio 13.1 · EPS (TTM) $3.69 · Net margin −89.9% · Return on equity 30.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −33.0% (3-year average) · Operating margin 19.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic.
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 271% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −56%, HNGE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$26.67Fair Value $51.25Bull$65.69
Price $115.76 · Downside -55.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.16 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
SaleJames BudgeChief Financial Officer10× since Nov 20, 2025: 197,505 shares, avg. $72.31$14.3MOct 12, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleGabriel M.I. MecklenburgDirector11× since Mar 6, 2026: 1,200,000 shares, avg. $75.37$90.4MOct 12, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleDaniel Antonio PerezCEO & Co-Founder, Director, 10% owner6× since Dec 15, 2025: 904,100 shares, avg. $59.24$53.6MOct 6, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJames PursleyPresident8× since Nov 21, 2025: 175,000 shares, avg. $67.39$11.8MSep 21, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleKristina M LeslieDirector3× since Nov 18, 2025: 8,450 shares, avg. $49.43$417,709Aug 20, 2026
SaleInsight Venture Associates X, L.P.10% owner2× since Jun 22, 2026: 1,153,964 shares, avg. $78.06$90.1MJul 9, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleInsight Holdings Group, LLC10% owner2× since Jun 25, 2026: 1,997,649 shares, avg. $79.91$159.6MJun 29, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleInsight Venture Partners (Delaware) X, L.P.10% owner142,311 shares at $71.67$10.2MJun 24, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleInsight Venture Associates X, Ltd.10% owner2× since Dec 1, 2025: 1,720,021 shares, avg. $48.62$83.6MJun 16, 2026
Plus 1 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 31 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.91/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: only 3 usable fiscal years, at least 4 required
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+28.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+26.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +25.4% a year for the price and +23.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (91 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: High gross margins provide a solid foundation, yet large net losses and negative returns leave the durability of the business unproven.
Main risk: Competitors such as Sword Health with similar AI motion tracking or direct-to-consumer options like Resolve360 could draw members and clients away from Hinge Health's employer and health-plan model, pressuring enrollment, retention and pricing.
Bull case: Hinge Health could leverage its proprietary dataset and hardware investments to outpace rivals in automation while navigating regulations through proactive compliance and deeper health-plan integrations.
Bear case: If rivals capture share or regulations tighten on devices and professional arrangements, Hinge Health might see slower member growth, higher costs and challenges scaling its platform beyond core MSK care.
Hinge Health plans further hardware acquisitions to automate more of care delivery and grow beyond its core digital physical therapy. This builds on its recent move into gastrointestinal care. Will the added scale from these deals strengthen its position more than it complicates integration and execution?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Health Information Services · 117 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score76 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−55.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)30.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets−70.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)15.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)19.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)53.0% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Health Information Services median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hinge Health, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HNGE
Frequently asked questions
Is Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $51.25 versus a price of $115.76, about 56% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HNGE?
Our model-based fair value for Hinge Health, Inc. is $51.25 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $115.76.
What is the quality score of HNGE?
Hinge Health, Inc. has a Quality Score of 76/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $51.25 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $26.67, optimistic scenario $65.69. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hinge Health, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $51.25, about 56% lower versus a price of $115.76 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $26.67, optimistic scenario $65.69. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE)?
Hinge Health, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $720M (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hinge Health, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +28.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 2 years revenue grew +41.7 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HNGE use?
Our models discount Hinge Health, Inc. at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hinge Health, Inc. that is +28.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE) delivered so far?
Over the past 2 years revenue at Hinge Health, Inc. grew +41.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +28.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hinge Health, Inc. (+28.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.79 %: that much free cash flow Hinge Health, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hinge Health, Inc. it is $51.25 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $115.76. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is Hinge Health, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, HNGE trades above its calculated fair value: price $115.76, fair value $51.25, a gap of about −56% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HNGE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($115.76); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($51.25). For Hinge Health, Inc. the two are $64.51 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hinge Health, Inc. worth?
The market values Hinge Health, Inc. at about $9.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $115.76; our models calculate a fair value of $51.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HNGE?
Our models span a range for Hinge Health, Inc.: cautious scenario $26.67, base $51.25, optimistic $65.69 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $115.76). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HNGE?
Hinge Health, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.7 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $51.25 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 25.2, P/S 13.2, EV/EBITDA 97.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hinge Health, Inc. (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 30.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 76/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HNGE from its 52-week high?
Hinge Health, Inc. trades at $115.76, about 4% below its 52-week high of $120.87 and 271% above the low of $31.17 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $51.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hinge Health, Inc.?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Veeva Systems Inc, Pro Medicus Limited, BrightSpring Health Services, Inc, HealthEquity, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hinge Health, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $115.76, calculated fair value $51.25 (−56%), Quality Score 76/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HNGE calculated?
We run Hinge Health, Inc. through 7 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $51.25 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Hinge Health, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $115.76. Our model-based fair value is $51.25, about 56% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hinge Health, Inc. right now?
A high-quality business (quality 76/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($65.69). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range ($26.67 to $65.69) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Hinge Health, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE)?
The market capitalisation of Hinge Health, Inc. is $9.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hinge Health, Inc. is 13.1 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE)?
Earnings per share at Hinge Health, Inc. are $3.69 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 31.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE)?
The net margin of Hinge Health, Inc. is −89.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hinge Health, Inc. is 30.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hinge Health, Inc. is −33.0% (avg 3y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE)?
The operating margin of Hinge Health, Inc. is 19.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE)?
Revenue at Hinge Health, Inc. is growing +53.0% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE)?
Earnings per share at Hinge Health, Inc. are growing −68.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE) hold?
Hinge Health, Inc. holds more cash than debt, $200M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 4, 2026