XtalPi Holdings Limited (2228) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of XtalPi Holdings Limited HK$1.28, price HK$8.07, upside -84.2%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value HK$1.28 · Strongly overvalued (−84%)
!Quality 38/100
!Mixed Growth(revenue 3y +80.3 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 15.4% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers(4/11)
!Narrow moat26/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
27‑month range HK$3.26 – HK$15.60 · fair‑value band HK$0.9520 – HK$1.28 · the HK$8.07 price screens above the HK$1.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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XtalPi Holdings Limited operates as a research platform company in Mainland China, the United States, and internationally.
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XtalPi Holdings Limited operates as a research platform company in Mainland China, the United States, and internationally. The company offers XmartChem, an intelligent synthesis workstation which automates the chemical synthesis process; ChemPlus, desktop solid dispensing device; PatSight, an optical chemical structure extraction tool for patents; and XFEP, a software for rapid FEP calculations using cloud computing. It also provides XMolGen, a generative chemistry tool; and drug discovery solutions, such as hit discovery, hit or lead optimization, and biology capabilities, as well as PepiX, which generates stable peptides. In addition, the company offers discovery chemistry solutions, including automation-aided chemical synthesis and focused library; and XtalGazer, a solid-state research solution. It has a strategic collaboration with Pfizer to co-build an AI-driven molecular simulation research and development platform; DoveTree to develop therapeutics designed for multiple difficult-to-drug targets; and strategic partnership with an international biopharmaceutical company to develop oral small molecule therapeutics for a GPCR target. The company was formerly known as QuantumPharm Inc. and changed its name to XtalPi Holdings Limited in December 2024. XtalPi Holdings Limited was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.
Stock analysis
XtalPi Holdings Limited (2228) currently trades at HK$8.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.28, implying the stock looks roughly 532.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$1.94 per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the HK$8.07 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$0.4800, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.9520 (bear) to HK$1.28 (bull), the price of HK$8.07 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
XtalPi Holdings Limited reported revenue of 782M CNY in FY2025 versus 62.8M CNY in FY2021, a compound +87.8%/yr. Reported net income was 121M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$32.2B (≈ $4.1B) · P/E ratio 255.0 · P/S ratio 39.3 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0200 · Net margin 15.4% · Return on equity 2.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −11.5% · Operating margin −160%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −84%, 2228 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (HK$0.2200 to HK$1.94). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear HK$0.9520Fair Value HK$1.28Bull HK$1.28
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0147 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+193.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+80.3%
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (28 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Health Information Services · 134 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−85% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2% · Above median
Return on assets−4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−160% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth74% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Health Information Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)255.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.05× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)35.64× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 3
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 34
PAST (return on equity)8· sector 5
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 48
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is XtalPi Holdings Limited (2228) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.28 versus a price of HK$8.07, about −84% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2228?
Our model-based fair value for XtalPi Holdings Limited is HK$1.28 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$8.07.
What is the quality score of 2228?
XtalPi Holdings Limited has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for XtalPi Holdings Limited (2228)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.28 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.9520, optimistic scenario HK$1.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the XtalPi Holdings Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.28, about −84% upside versus a price of HK$8.07 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.9520, optimistic scenario HK$1.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of XtalPi Holdings Limited (2228)?
XtalPi Holdings Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 803M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of XtalPi Holdings Limited (2228)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For XtalPi Holdings Limited it is HK$1.28 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$8.07. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is XtalPi Holdings Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 2228 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$8.07, fair value HK$1.28, a gap of about −84% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2228?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$8.07); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.28). For XtalPi Holdings Limited the two are HK$6.79 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is XtalPi Holdings Limited worth?
The market values XtalPi Holdings Limited at about HK$32.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$8.07; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2228?
Our models span a range for XtalPi Holdings Limited: cautious scenario HK$0.9520, base HK$1.28, optimistic HK$1.28 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$8.07). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2228?
XtalPi Holdings Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 255.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$1.28 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.1, P/S 35.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of XtalPi Holdings Limited (2228)?
Balance-sheet figures for XtalPi Holdings Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 2.0%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2228 from its 52-week high?
XtalPi Holdings Limited trades at HK$8.07, about 46% below its 52-week high of HK$14.87 and 25% above the low of HK$6.44 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to XtalPi Holdings Limited?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Veeva Systems Inc, Pro Medicus Limited, BrightSpring Health Services, Inc, HealthEquity, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is XtalPi Holdings Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$8.07, calculated fair value HK$1.28 (−84%), Quality Score 38/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2228 calculated?
We run XtalPi Holdings Limited through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.28, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. XtalPi Holdings Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of XtalPi Holdings Limited (2228)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$8.07. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.28, about −84% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with XtalPi Holdings Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$1.28). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of XtalPi Holdings Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of XtalPi Holdings Limited (2228)?
The market capitalisation of XtalPi Holdings Limited is HK$32.2B (≈ $4.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of XtalPi Holdings Limited (2228)?
The price-to-sales ratio of XtalPi Holdings Limited is 39.3 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of XtalPi Holdings Limited (2228)?
Earnings per share at XtalPi Holdings Limited are HK$0.0200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 255.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of XtalPi Holdings Limited (2228)?
The net margin of XtalPi Holdings Limited is 15.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of XtalPi Holdings Limited (2228)?
The return on equity (ROE) of XtalPi Holdings Limited is 2.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of XtalPi Holdings Limited (2228)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of XtalPi Holdings Limited is −11.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of XtalPi Holdings Limited (2228)?
The operating margin of XtalPi Holdings Limited is −160% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at XtalPi Holdings Limited (2228)?
Revenue at XtalPi Holdings Limited is growing +74.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +80.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does XtalPi Holdings Limited (2228) generate?
The free cash flow of XtalPi Holdings Limited is −200M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does XtalPi Holdings Limited (2228) hold?
XtalPi Holdings Limited holds more cash than debt, 2.1B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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