XtalPi Holdings (2228) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · HK · Market cap HK$32.9B
Fair value as of: Aug 5, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Share price +2.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 89% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.9265). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (2 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
26‑month range HK$3.26 – HK$15.60 · fair‑value band HK$0.6205 – HK$0.9265 · the HK$8.13 price screens above the HK$0.8840 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 5, 2026.
Analysis
XtalPi Holdings (2228) currently trades at HK$8.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.8840, implying the stock looks roughly 89.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, XtalPi Holdings generated revenue of HK$803M at a net margin of 15.4%. Revenue grew 74.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$2.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.6205 (bear case) to HK$0.9265 (bull case); at HK$8.13, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -53% fair-value upside, at -89%, 2228 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$2.00) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.2400). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
XtalPi Holdings Limited operates as a research platform company in Mainland China, the United States, and internationally.
Full company description
XtalPi Holdings Limited operates as a research platform company in Mainland China, the United States, and internationally. The company offers XmartChem, an intelligent synthesis workstation which automates the chemical synthesis process; ChemPlus, desktop solid dispensing device; PatSight, an optical chemical structure extraction tool for patents; and XFEP, a software for rapid FEP calculations using cloud computing. It also provides XMolGen, a generative chemistry tool; and drug discovery solutions, such as hit discovery, hit or lead optimization, and biology capabilities, as well as PepiX, which generates stable peptides. In addition, the company offers discovery chemistry solutions, including automation-aided chemical synthesis and focused library; and XtalGazer, a solid-state research solution. It has a strategic collaboration with Pfizer to co-build an AI-driven molecular simulation research and development platform; DoveTree to develop therapeutics designed for multiple difficult-to-drug targets; and strategic partnership with an international biopharmaceutical company to develop oral small molecule therapeutics for a GPCR target. The company was formerly known as QuantumPharm Inc. and changed its name to XtalPi Holdings Limited in December 2024. XtalPi Holdings Limited was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
XtalPi Holdings reported revenue of HK$782M in FY2025 versus HK$62.8M in FY2021, a compound +87.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$121M in FY2025.
2228 screens 89% overvalued. Compare with Veeva Systems Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- XtalPi Holdings (SEHK:2228) Stock Valuation Check After Recent Weak Momentum
- XtalPi Announces Strategic Partnership with a Leading Biopharma to Develop Oral Small Molecule Therapeutics for a GPCR Target
- XtalPi Receives Second Payment from DoveTree; First Oncology Asset Advances into IND-Enabling Studies
- XtalPi -Enabled PharmaEngine PEP08 Achieves Enrollment Milestone, with Second Synthetic Lethality Program Underway
Peer Group
Health Information Services · 126 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Health Information Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Health Information Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Veeva Systems Inc VEEV | $190.12 | $95.12 | -50% |
| Pro Medicus Limited PME | A$194.84 | A$23.74 | -88% |
| BrightSpring Health Services, Inc BTSG | $68.16 | $21.31 | -69% |
| HealthEquity, Inc HQY | $97.67 | $56.63 | -42% |
| Hinge Health, Inc HNGE | $88.80 | $24.03 | -73% |
| 10x Genomics, Inc TXG | $45.75 | $17.18 | -62% |
| Waystar Holding WAY | $22.69 | $12.86 | -43% |
| Doximity, Inc DOCS | $22.21 | $17.18 | -23% |
| Privia Health Group PRVA | $28.10 | $5.30 | -81% |
| Inventurus Knowledge Solutions Limited IKS | ₹1,846 | ₹860.28 | -53% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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