Hinge Health, Inc (HNGE) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $6.9B
Hinge Health, Inc
HNGE · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 7 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from $31.17 to $24.03 (−22.9%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +0.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 73% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($30.51). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (15 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
15‑month range $31.17 – $90.00 · fair‑value band $17.56 – $30.51 · the $89.33 price screens above the $24.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Hinge Health, Inc (HNGE) currently trades at $89.33, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $24.03, implying the stock looks roughly 73.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Hinge Health, Inc generated revenue of $646M at a net margin of -79.0%. Revenue grew 47.2% year over year. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $200M. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $17.56 (bear case) to $30.51 (bull case); at $89.33, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 197% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -53% fair-value upside, at -73%, HNGE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 7 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($52.47) versus Asset-Based ($3.10). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (72).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hinge Health, Inc. focuses on building a health system that scales and automates the delivery of care using technology. It designs its platform to address musculoskeletal system care (MSK), including acute injury, chronic pain, and post-surgical rehabilitation.
Full company description
Hinge Health, Inc. focuses on building a health system that scales and automates the delivery of care using technology. It designs its platform to address musculoskeletal system care (MSK), including acute injury, chronic pain, and post-surgical rehabilitation. The company also provides personalized and automated MSK care through AI-powered motion tracking technology and a proprietary electrical nerve stimulation wearable device. It primarily serves self-insured employers. The company was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2023 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hinge Health, Inc reported revenue of $588M in FY2025 versus $293M in FY2023, a compound +41.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$528M in FY2025.
HNGE screens 73% overvalued. Compare with Veeva Systems Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- HNGE Q2 Earnings Meet Estimates, Sales Top, '26 View Raised, Stock Up
- Hinge Health forecasts $856M-$860M 2026 revenue as it plans broader GI rollout in 2027
- Hinge Health (HNGE) Rose with Expanding Client Base
Peer Group
Health Information Services · 127 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Health Information Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Health Information Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Veeva Systems Inc VEEV | $190.12 | $95.12 | -50% |
| Pro Medicus Limited PME | A$194.84 | A$23.74 | -88% |
| BrightSpring Health Services, Inc BTSG | $68.16 | $21.31 | -69% |
| HealthEquity, Inc HQY | $97.67 | $56.63 | -42% |
| 10x Genomics, Inc TXG | $45.75 | $17.18 | -62% |
| Waystar Holding WAY | $22.69 | $12.86 | -43% |
| Doximity, Inc DOCS | $22.21 | $17.18 | -23% |
| Privia Health Group PRVA | $28.10 | $5.30 | -81% |
| Inventurus Knowledge Solutions Limited IKS | ₹1,846 | ₹860.28 | -53% |
| Winning Health Technology Group 300253 | ¥6.54 | ¥1.18 | -82% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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