BrightSpring Health Services, Inc (BTSG) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $13.4B
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc
BTSG · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Share price −13.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 70% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($22.71). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($10.42 to $22.71) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
30‑month range $8.23 – $72.91 · fair‑value band $10.42 – $22.71 · the $60.60 price screens above the $18.11 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc (BTSG) currently trades at $60.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.11, implying the stock looks roughly 70.1% overvalued today. We read business quality at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, BrightSpring Health Services, Inc generated revenue of $13.6B at a net margin of 2.3%. Revenue grew 25.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.2%. Net debt stands at $2.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $10.42 (bear case) to $22.71 (bull case); at $60.60, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 219% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -53% fair-value upside, at -70%, BTSG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($32.46) versus Asset-Based ($6.40). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. operates as a home and community-based healthcare services platform in the United States. The company operates through two segments, Pharmacy Solutions and Provider Services.
Full company description
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. operates as a home and community-based healthcare services platform in the United States. The company operates through two segments, Pharmacy Solutions and Provider Services. Its platform focuses on delivering pharmacy and provider services, including clinical and supportive care in home and community settings to Medicare, Medicaid, and insured populations. It also offers infused, injectable, and oral medication services; and patient-centric, highly skilled, and compassionate clinical home health care, as well as rehabilitation services, including physical, speech and occupational therapy and applied behavioral analysis. The company was formerly known as Phoenix Parent Holdings Inc. and changed its name to BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. in May 2021. BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc reported revenue of $12.9B in FY2025 versus $6.7B in FY2021, a compound +17.8%/yr. Reported net income was $191M in FY2025, compounding +39.9%/yr from FY2021.
BTSG screens 70% overvalued. Compare with Veeva Systems Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- BTSG Raises 2026 Guidance as Specialty and Home Health Drive Growth
- Is BTSG a Buy as Rapid Growth Collides With Its Premium Valuation?
- BTSG Drops 18.1% in One Week as Growth Meets Fresh Valuation Risks
- BrightSpring Health Services (BTSG) Lifts 2026 Outlook After Strong Q2 Results Is The Margin Story Shifting?
Peer Group
Health Information Services · 127 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Health Information Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Health Information Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Veeva Systems Inc VEEV | $190.12 | $95.12 | -50% |
| Pro Medicus Limited PME | A$194.84 | A$23.74 | -88% |
| HealthEquity, Inc HQY | $97.67 | $56.63 | -42% |
| Hinge Health, Inc HNGE | $88.80 | $24.03 | -73% |
| 10x Genomics, Inc TXG | $45.75 | $17.18 | -62% |
| Waystar Holding WAY | $22.69 | $12.86 | -43% |
| Doximity, Inc DOCS | $22.21 | $17.18 | -23% |
| Privia Health Group PRVA | $28.10 | $5.30 | -81% |
| Inventurus Knowledge Solutions Limited IKS | ₹1,846 | ₹860.28 | -53% |
| Winning Health Technology Group 300253 | ¥6.54 | ¥1.18 | -82% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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