Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd (KNSA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd stock $15.57, price $93.86, that is 83.4% below the price, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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HealthcareUS · Based in United Kingdom · ISIN GB00BRXB0C07
KPThin dataNov 6, 2026
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd
KNSA · US
Solid,but very expensive
Our calculation puts a fair price 83% below what the stock costs today.
Solidly profitable · 11.6% net margin (TTM)
Generates free cash flow
Last quarter vs. a year ago: revenue +58%, profit +144%.
Quality 59/100
Mixed Growth(revenue 5y +144.8 %/yr in USD)
Mixed vs. peers(6/12)
Moderate moat61/100 · thin data
Neutral coverage
Insiders sold $77.8M (6M)
Fair value $15.57 · Strongly overvalued (−83.4%)
Thin data
Extreme value
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Dependence on Regeneron license and manufacturing🚩Competition from other IL-1 inhibitors and low-cost therapies🚩Loss of orphan exclusivity and biosimilar risk after 2028
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.60 – $97.56 · fair‑value band $8.86 – $22.53 · the $93.86 price screens above the $15.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc, a biopharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes medical therapies in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
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The company offers ARCALYST, an interleukin-1alpha and 1beta cytokine trap for the treatment of recurrent pericarditis, a chronic autoinflammatory cardiovascular disease and cardiac sarcoidosis.
It also develops KPL-387, an investigational and fully human immunoglobulin G2 monoclonal antibody, which is Phase 2/3 clinical trial for the treatment of recurrent pericarditis; and KPL-116, a Fc-modified immunoglobulin G2 monoclonal antibody, which is in pre-clinical stage.
The company was formerly known as Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, Ltd. and changed its name to Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc in June 2024. Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc was incorporated in 2015 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd (KNSA) currently trades at $93.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.57, 83% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $32.87 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $93.86 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.97, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $8.86 (bear) to $22.53 (bull), the price of $93.86 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd reported revenue of $678M in FY2025 versus $38.5M in FY2021, a compound +104.8%/yr. Reported net income was $59.0M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $7.8B Mid · P/E ratio 69.9 · P/S ratio 8.28 · EPS (TTM) $1.32 · Net margin 11.6% · Return on equity 17.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −13.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin 19.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 61 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 148% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −83%, KNSA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($3.97 to $44.67). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$8.86Fair Value $15.57Bull$22.53
Price $93.86 · Downside -83.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.13 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 6 officers or directors sold shares worth $77.8M and none bought.
SaleSanj K PatelCHAIRMAN & CEO, Director5× since Apr 6, 2026: 1,117,976 shares, avg. $72.57$81.1MNov 4, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJohn F. PaoliniCHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER3× since Mar 2, 2026: 194,424 shares, avg. $71.33$13.9MNov 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMark RagosaCHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER6× since Nov 12, 2025: 166,091 shares, avg. $53.85$8.9MNov 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleRoss MoatCHIEF OPERATING OFFICER3× since Apr 6, 2026: 107,655 shares, avg. $91.22$9.8MNov 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMichael R MegnaCHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER3× since Apr 9, 2026: 47,485 shares, avg. $86.40$4.1MOct 30, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleG Bradley ColeDirector3,673 shares at $81.43$299,092Jul 29, 2026
SaleBarry D QuartDirector5× since Dec 15, 2025: 58,889 shares, avg. $45.59$2.7MApr 28, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleEben TessariCHIEF OPERATING OFFICER3× since Nov 17, 2025: 24,718 shares, avg. $41.41$1.0MDec 15, 202510b5-1 plan
Plus 23 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.73/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+60.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+45.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+144.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+91.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+91.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−2,043% → 11%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+59.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+26.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +56.0% a year for the price and +23.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Kiniksa shows strength in steadily adding prescribers and repeat use for ARCALYST in a still-underpenetrated market, yet its main weakness is heavy reliance on a single therapy that may limit longer-term growth.
Main risk: Kiniksa relies on a 50/50 profit-sharing license from Regeneron for ARCALYST plus a recent manufacturing transfer to Samsung Biologics, which could squeeze margins or disrupt supply if terms change or delays occur.
Bull case: Kiniksa could leverage its pipeline candidates such as the monthly-dosed KPL-387 to extend the franchise with improved convenience and economics while using its commercial expertise to defend share against rivals.
Bear case: If exclusivity ends and competitors gain traction or the Regeneron arrangement constrains economics, Kiniksa might see its single-product revenue base erode sharply with limited diversification to offset the impact.
Kiniksa keeps adding hundreds of new prescribers for ARCALYST each quarter while building strong repeat use in recurrent pericarditis. The market still sits below 20 percent penetration among the relevant healthcare professionals. Will the monthly-dosed pipeline candidates extend the franchise, or will reliance on one therapy eventually cap growth?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 549 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside−83.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)17.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.7% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)11.6% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)19.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)58.1% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
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Is Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd (KNSA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.57 versus a price of $93.86, about 83% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KNSA?
Our model-based fair value for Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd is $15.57 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $93.86.
What is the quality score of KNSA?
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd (KNSA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.57 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.86, optimistic scenario $22.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.57, about 83% lower versus a price of $93.86 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $8.86, optimistic scenario $22.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd (KNSA)?
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $946M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd (KNSA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +59.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +144.8 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KNSA use?
Our models discount Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.04, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd that is +59.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd (KNSA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd grew +144.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +59.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd (KNSA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd (+59.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd (KNSA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.32 %: that much free cash flow Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd (KNSA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd it is $15.57 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $93.86. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, KNSA trades above its calculated fair value: price $93.86, fair value $15.57, a gap of about −83% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KNSA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($93.86); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.57). For Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd the two are $78.29 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd worth?
The market values Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd at about $7.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $93.86; our models calculate a fair value of $15.57 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KNSA?
Our models span a range for Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd: cautious scenario $8.86, base $15.57, optimistic $22.53 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $93.86). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KNSA?
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 69.9 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $15.57 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 13.8, P/S 8.3, EV/EBITDA 57.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd (KNSA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 17.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KNSA from its 52-week high?
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd trades at $93.86, about 4% below its 52-week high of $97.56 and 148% above the low of $37.92 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.57 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Galderma Group, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $93.86, calculated fair value $15.57 (−83%), Quality Score 59/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KNSA calculated?
We run Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $15.57 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd (KNSA)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $93.86. Our model-based fair value is $15.57, about 83% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($22.53). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($8.86 to $22.53) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd (KNSA)?
The market capitalisation of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd is $7.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd (KNSA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd is 8.28 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd (KNSA)?
Earnings per share at Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd are $1.32 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 69.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd (KNSA)?
The net margin of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd is 11.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd (KNSA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd is 17.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd (KNSA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd is −13.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd (KNSA)?
The operating margin of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd is 19.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd (KNSA)?
Revenue at Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd is growing +58.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +45.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd (KNSA)?
Earnings per share at Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd are growing +144% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd (KNSA) hold?
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd holds more cash than debt, $156M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 6, 2026