Lonza Group AG (LONN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Lonza Group AG stock CHF 154, price CHF 663, that is 76.9% below the price, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 17 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 303.80 – CHF 756.42 · fair‑value band CHF 118.29 – CHF 179.73 · the CHF 663.40 price screens above the CHF 153.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Lonza Group AG, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a contract development and manufacturing organization for pharma and biotech companies in Europe, North and Central America, Latin America, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and internationally.
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It operates through Integrated Biologics; Advanced Synthesis; and Specialized Modalities segments. The Integrated Biologics segment offers CDMO biologics services from clinical development, drug substance, and drug product manufacturing; and operates mammalian and drug product platforms.
Its Advanced Synthesis segment manufactures antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) and other bioconjugates, small molecules, and highly potent active pharmaceutical ingredients; and operates small molecules and bioconjugates platforms.
The Specialized Modalities segment operates various technologies, such as spanning cell & gene, microbial, bioscience, and mRNA. Lonza Group AG was incorporated in 1897 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Lonza Group AG (LONN) currently trades at CHF 663.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 153.50, 77% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of CHF 292.84 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the CHF 663.40 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at CHF 65.66, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: CHF 118.29 (bear) to CHF 179.73 (bull), the price of CHF 663.40 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Lonza Group AG reported revenue of CHF 6.5B in FY2025 versus CHF 5.4B in FY2021, a compound +4.8%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 949M in FY2025, compounding −24.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap CHF 46.4B Large · P/S ratio 6.35 · EPS (TTM) CHF 15.38 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 14.5% · Return on equity 12.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.3% (5-year average) · Operating margin 23.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −9% fair-value upside, at −77%, LONN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearCHF 118.29Fair Value CHF 153.50BullCHF 179.73
Price CHF 663.40 · Downside -76.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (CHF 8.87 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.36/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.6% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−5.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3.1% vs 9.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 15%
2025 sits 52% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The business shows potential through bioconjugation capacity expansion supporting its shift to a pure-play CDMO, yet thin evidence across categories and negative free cash flow limit signals of durable advantage.
Main risk: Samsung Biologics could expand its massive biologics manufacturing capacity and launch ADC fill-finish services, potentially drawing customers away from Lonza or pressuring prices and margins in high-volume mammalian and ADC production.
Bull case: Lonza could leverage its established expertise in complex biologics, process development and partnerships such as with Onava to retain premium customers and differentiate through integrated end-to-end offerings despite rival capacity growth.
Bear case: Samsung Biologics capturing significant share in large-scale biologics and ADCs could lead to reduced utilization in Lonza's key facilities and sustained margin pressure in its core CDMO segments over the coming years.
Lonza is expanding its bioconjugation facilities in Visp to meet rising demand for antibody-drug conjugates, upgrading existing suites by 2027 and adding large-scale capacity from 2028. This move supports its transformation into a pure-play CDMO and the upgraded medium-term growth ambitions, even as our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the new capacity deliver the targeted margin expansion ahead of sales growth, or will ramp-up and utilization risks hold back the results?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Diagnostics & Research · 126 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside−76.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.9% · Above median
Return on assets5.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)−1.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)23.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)11.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.42× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Diagnostics & Research median · lower = cheaper
P/B5.08× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)6.75× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA20.7× · Pricier than median
PEG1.01× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)56· sector 39
PAST (return on equity)52· sector 15
HEALTH (low debt)79· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)15· sector 33
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lonza Group AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LONN
Frequently asked questions
Is Lonza Group AG (LONN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 153.50 versus a price of CHF 663.40, about 77% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LONN?
Our model-based fair value for Lonza Group AG is CHF 153.50 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 663.40.
What is the quality score of LONN?
Lonza Group AG has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lonza Group AG (LONN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 153.50 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 118.29, optimistic scenario CHF 179.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lonza Group AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 153.50, about 77% lower versus a price of CHF 663.40 (overvalued). Cautious scenario CHF 118.29, optimistic scenario CHF 179.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lonza Group AG (LONN)?
Lonza Group AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 6.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Lonza Group AG pay a dividend?
Lonza Group AG currently shows a dividend yield of 0.75% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Lonza Group AG (LONN) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Lonza Group AG pays a dividend of CHF 5.00 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.8%. The last ex-dividend date was May 12, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2000. The payout ratio is 32.5% of earnings. Our assessment: Token dividend. At a yield of 0.8% the dividend is symbolic. On paper it is not fully covered by earnings or free cash flow, but at this size that hardly matters: even scrapping it entirely would cost less than 0.8% a year, and coverage ratios on amounts this small swing with ordinary working-capital movements. Judge this company on its business, not on its dividend.
What is the intrinsic value of Lonza Group AG (LONN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lonza Group AG it is CHF 153.50 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of CHF 663.40. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Lonza Group AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, LONN trades above its calculated fair value: price CHF 663.40, fair value CHF 153.50, a gap of about −77% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LONN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (CHF 663.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (CHF 153.50). For Lonza Group AG the two are CHF 509.90 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lonza Group AG worth?
The market values Lonza Group AG at about CHF 46.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is CHF 663.40; our models calculate a fair value of CHF 153.50 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LONN?
Our models span a range for Lonza Group AG: cautious scenario CHF 118.29, base CHF 153.50, optimistic CHF 179.73 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price CHF 663.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of LONN?
The PEG ratio of Lonza Group AG is 1.01 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lonza Group AG (LONN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lonza Group AG (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 12.9%, debt of 0.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LONN from its 52-week high?
Lonza Group AG trades at CHF 663.40, about 1% below its 52-week high of CHF 672.40 and 44% above the low of CHF 461.86 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of CHF 153.50 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lonza Group AG?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc, Danaher Corporation, WuXi AppTec Co, IDEXX Laboratories, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lonza Group AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price CHF 663.40, calculated fair value CHF 153.50 (−77%), Quality Score 55/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LONN calculated?
We run Lonza Group AG through 17 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of CHF 153.50 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Lonza Group AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lonza Group AG (LONN)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was CHF 663.40. Our model-based fair value is CHF 153.50, about 77% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lonza Group AG right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (CHF 179.73). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Lonza Group AG (LONN) come from?
Earnings per share at Lonza Group AG grew +8.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.6 %, EBIT margin +2.1 %, tax rate −0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Lonza Group AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Lonza Group AG (LONN)?
The market capitalisation of Lonza Group AG is CHF 46.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lonza Group AG (LONN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lonza Group AG is 6.35 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lonza Group AG (LONN)?
Earnings per share at Lonza Group AG are CHF 15.38. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Lonza Group AG (LONN)?
The dividend yield of Lonza Group AG is 0.8% (payout 32.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Lonza Group AG (LONN)?
The net margin of Lonza Group AG is 14.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lonza Group AG (LONN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lonza Group AG is 12.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lonza Group AG (LONN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lonza Group AG is 6.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lonza Group AG (LONN)?
The operating margin of Lonza Group AG is 23.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lonza Group AG (LONN)?
Revenue at Lonza Group AG is growing +11.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lonza Group AG (LONN)?
Earnings per share at Lonza Group AG are growing +39.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Lonza Group AG (LONN) generate?
The free cash flow of Lonza Group AG is −CHF 204M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Lonza Group AG (LONN) carry?
The net debt of Lonza Group AG is CHF 3.5B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 8, 2026