Mednax Inc (MD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mednax Inc stock $42.65, price $31.29, upside +36.3%, quality 71 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.77 – $35.15 · fair‑value band $30.34 – $55.45 · the $31.29 price screens below the $42.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides newborn, maternal-fetal, and other pediatric subspecialty care services in the United States.
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The company offers clinical care to babies born prematurely or with complications within specific units at hospitals, primarily NICUs, through its network of affiliated neonatal physician subspecialists, neonatal nurse practitioners, and other pediatric clinicians; and inpatient and office-based clinical care to expectant mothers and unborn babies through its affiliated maternal-fetal medicine subspecialists, obstetricians and other clinicians, maternal-fetal medicine nurse practitioners, certified nurse midwives, sonographers, and genetic counselors.
It also provides other pediatric subspecialty care, including pediatric intensivists, pediatric hospitalists, and pediatric surgeons; support services in other areas of hospitals comprising pediatric emergency room, labor and delivery area, and nursery and pediatric departments; a newborn hearing screening program.
The company was formerly known as MEDNAX, Inc. and changed its name to Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. in July 2022. Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. was founded in 1979 and is based in Sunrise, Florida.
Stock analysis
Mednax Inc (MD) currently trades at $31.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $42.65, implying the stock looks roughly 27% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $55.83 per share, and 17 of the 22 models we run sit above the $31.29 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $20.15, and 5 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $30.34 (bear) to $55.45 (bull), the price of $31.29 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Mednax Inc reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2025 versus $1.9B in FY2021, a compound +0.0%/yr. Reported net income was $165M in FY2025, compounding +6.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $2.5B Mid · P/E ratio 17.1 · P/S ratio 1.30 · EPS (TTM) $1.83 · Net margin 7.7% · Return on equity 17.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin 14.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 66% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 36%, MD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$30.34Fair Value $42.65Bull$55.45
Price $31.29 · Upside +36.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.57 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $855,665 and none bought.
SaleShirley A WeisDirector36,028 shares at $23.75$855,665May 13, 2026
SaleMark S OrdanChief Executive Officer, Director23,000 shares at $22.41$515,430Dec 15, 2025
SaleMichael A. RuckerDirector10,478 shares at $23.00$240,994Nov 17, 2025
Plus 18 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.61/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.7% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +5.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +5.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 5.1% / −5.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 12%
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2020 (starting value 1.52 per share, median 3.44 in 2015 to 2018). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.4%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −6.6% a year for the price and −0.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: The business draws strength from steady demand for its hospital-based physician services yet remains weakened by reimbursement dependency that limits margins and moat durability.
Main risk: Reimbursement dependency threatens to constrain margins through ongoing pressure on fees in its service-based medical care model.
Pediatrix keeps adding dozens of neonatal and perinatal roles nationwide, from neonatologists to hearing screen technicians. That hiring activity points to steady demand for its hospital-based physician services even while some reports flag lower patient volumes. Does the staffing push reflect growing needs or just the ongoing expense of filling shifts in a tight market?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Care Facilities · 234 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+36.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)17.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.4% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)7.7% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)14.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)1.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.66× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)17.1× · Cheaper than median
P/B2.94× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)1.30× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)10.1× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mednax Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MD
Frequently asked questions
Is Mednax Inc (MD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $42.65 versus a price of $31.29, about +36% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MD?
Our model-based fair value for Mednax Inc is $42.65 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $31.29.
What is the quality score of MD?
Mednax Inc has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mednax Inc (MD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $42.65 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $30.34, optimistic scenario $55.45. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mednax Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $42.65, about +36% upside versus a price of $31.29 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $30.34, optimistic scenario $55.45. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mednax Inc (MD)?
Mednax Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mednax Inc (MD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mednax Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -4.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.0 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MD use?
Our models discount Mednax Inc at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.61, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mednax Inc that is -4.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mednax Inc (MD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mednax Inc grew +2.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -4.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mednax Inc (MD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mednax Inc (-4.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mednax Inc (MD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.92 %: that much free cash flow Mednax Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mednax Inc (MD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mednax Inc it is $42.65 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $31.29. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Mednax Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, MD trades below its calculated fair value: price $31.29, fair value $42.65, a gap of about +36% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($31.29); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($42.65). For Mednax Inc the two are $11.36 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mednax Inc worth?
The market values Mednax Inc at about $2.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $31.29; our models calculate a fair value of $42.65 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MD?
Our models span a range for Mednax Inc: cautious scenario $30.34, base $42.65, optimistic $55.45 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $31.29). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MD?
Mednax Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.1 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $42.65 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 16.8. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 2.9, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 10.5.
What is the PEG ratio of MD?
The PEG ratio of Mednax Inc is 0.24 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mednax Inc (MD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mednax Inc (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 17.3%, debt of 0.66 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MD from its 52-week high?
Mednax Inc trades at $31.29, about 5% below its 52-week high of $32.80 and 66% above the low of $18.82 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $42.65 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mednax Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value HCA Healthcare, Inc, Fresenius SE, Tenet Healthcare Corporation, Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mednax Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $31.29, calculated fair value $42.65 (+36%), Quality Score 71/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MD calculated?
We run Mednax Inc through 22 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $42.65 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Mednax Inc currently trades 27% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mednax Inc (MD)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $31.29. Our model-based fair value is $42.65, about +36% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mednax Inc right now?
Solid quality (71/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($30.34 to $55.45) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Mednax Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Mednax Inc (MD)?
The market capitalisation of Mednax Inc is $2.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mednax Inc (MD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mednax Inc is 1.30 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mednax Inc (MD)?
Earnings per share at Mednax Inc are $1.83 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Mednax Inc (MD)?
The net margin of Mednax Inc is 7.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mednax Inc (MD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mednax Inc is 17.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mednax Inc (MD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mednax Inc is 4.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mednax Inc (MD)?
The operating margin of Mednax Inc is 14.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mednax Inc (MD)?
Revenue at Mednax Inc is growing +1.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mednax Inc (MD)?
Earnings per share at Mednax Inc are growing −29.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Mednax Inc (MD) carry?
The net debt of Mednax Inc is $285M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 4, 2026