The Ensign Group Inc (ENSG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of The Ensign Group Inc stock $140, price $188, that is 25.6% below the price, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Our calculation puts a fair price 26% below what the stock costs today.
Healthy Growth(revenue 5y +16.1 %/yr in USD)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
0.1% dividend yield · Well covered
Positive coverage
Broad data
Quality 58/100
Thin margins · 7.0% net margin (TTM)
Mixed vs. peers(6/15)
Moderate moat56/100 · thin data
Insiders sold $285,655 (6M)
Fair value $140.09 · Overvalued (−25.6%)
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Securities class action over operations and resident care statements🚩Regulatory scrutiny over staffing and billing🚩Home health rivals shifting patients away
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $68.57 – $215.67 · fair‑value band $98.07 – $182.12 · the $188.31 price screens above the $140.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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The Ensign Group, Inc. provides skilled nursing, senior living, and rehabilitative services. It operates through two segments: Skilled Services and Standard Bearer.
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The Skilled Services segment provides short and long-term nursing care services for patients with chronic conditions, prolonged illness, and the elderly; specialty care, such as on-site dialysis, ventilator care, cardiac, and pulmonary management; and standard services, such as room and board, special nutritional programs, social services, recreational activities, entertainment, and other services.
The Standard Bearer segment leases post-acute care properties to healthcare operators.
In addition, the company operates senior living units; and provides ancillary services consisting of digital x-ray, ultrasound, electrocardiograms, sub-acute services, dialysis, respiratory, and long-term care pharmacy and patient transportation to people in their homes or at long-term care facilities, as well as mobile diagnostics.
The company operates healthcare facilities in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Oregon, Nebraska, Nevada, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Washington, and Wisconsin. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is based in San Juan Capistrano, California.
Stock analysis
The Ensign Group Inc (ENSG) currently trades at $188.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $140.09, 26% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $183.40 per share, and 3 of the 26 models we run sit above the $188.31 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $24.43, and 23 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $98.07 (bear) to $182.12 (bull), the price of $188.31 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
The Ensign Group Inc reported revenue of $5.1B in FY2025 versus $2.6B in FY2021, a compound +17.8%/yr. Reported net income was $344M in FY2025, compounding +15.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $11.2B Large · P/E ratio 28.0 · P/S ratio 2.04 · EPS (TTM) $6.72 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 7.0% · Return on equity 17.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 56 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at −26%, ENSG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$98.07Fair Value $140.09Bull$182.12
Price $188.31 · Downside -25.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($5.49 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $285,655 and none bought.
SaleMark Vincent ParkinsonDirector4× since Feb 9, 2026: 400 shares, avg. $185.59$74,234Oct 16, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleAnn Scott BlouinDirector2× since Feb 9, 2026: 750 shares, avg. $190.77$143,079Jul 27, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJohn O AgwunobiDirector4× since Nov 6, 2025: 1,422 shares, avg. $184.37$262,175Jul 20, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleBarry M SmithDirector7× since Dec 1, 2025: 4,900 shares, avg. $183.65$899,892Jun 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SalePison Marivic UychiatDirector2× since Nov 7, 2025: 223 shares, avg. $199.71$44,536Feb 20, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleBeverly B. WittekindVP and Chief Legal Officer3× since Dec 12, 2025: 10,900 shares, avg. $177.90$1.9MFeb 19, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleDaren ShawDirector2× since Nov 18, 2025: 2,000 shares, avg. $196.00$392,000Feb 17, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleSuzanne D. SnapperCFO, Director12,831 shares at $195.07$2.5MFeb 6, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleSpencer BurtonPresident and COO2× since Nov 17, 2025: 11,798 shares, avg. $178.65$2.1MNov 20, 202510b5-1 plan
SaleBarry PortChief Executive Officer, Director28,315 shares at $180.71$5.1MNov 12, 202510b5-1 plan
Plus 25 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.2% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13.8% vs 19.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 8%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.2% a year for the price and +8.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (91 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Acquisitions support scale and deliver decent ROE plus cash flow, yet thin evidence of a durable moat and ongoing reimbursement risks constrain overall quality.
Main risk: Tighter enforcement of staffing rules or False Claims Act actions over alleged understaffing and data manipulation at facilities could raise compliance costs and limit Medicare or Medicaid reimbursements.
Bull case: Ensign could strengthen local operations and quality metrics to meet stricter oversight while expanding into complementary home health services to retain patients across care settings.
Bear case: Sustained regulatory actions or license restrictions could slow acquisitions and compress margins, and accelerating patient shifts to home-based rivals could erode facility utilization over time.
Ensign keeps adding scale through acquisitions that brought it into Florida and raised its total operations above 400. A securities class action filed this month alleges misleading statements on operations and resident care over several years. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will the push for more facilities strengthen local execution or heighten risks from oversight and litigation?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Care Facilities · 235 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside−25.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)17.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)7.0% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)14.5% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)28.0× · Pricier than median
P/B5.02× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)2.04× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow30.2× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA18.6× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.45× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 35
FUTURE (revenue growth)73· sector 29
PAST (return on equity)68· sector 33
HEALTH (low debt)97· sector 90
DIVIDEND (yield)3· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "The Ensign Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ENSG
Frequently asked questions
Is The Ensign Group Inc (ENSG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $140.09 versus a price of $188.31, about 26% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ENSG?
Our model-based fair value for The Ensign Group Inc is $140.09 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $188.31.
What is the quality score of ENSG?
The Ensign Group Inc has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for The Ensign Group Inc (ENSG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $140.09 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $98.07, optimistic scenario $182.12. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the The Ensign Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $140.09, about 26% lower versus a price of $188.31 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $98.07, optimistic scenario $182.12. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of The Ensign Group Inc (ENSG)?
The Ensign Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does The Ensign Group Inc pay a dividend?
The Ensign Group Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.14% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into The Ensign Group Inc (ENSG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, The Ensign Group Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +12.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.1 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ENSG use?
Our models discount The Ensign Group Inc at 8.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.66, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For The Ensign Group Inc that is +12.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has The Ensign Group Inc (ENSG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at The Ensign Group Inc grew +16.1 % a year. The price currently implies +12.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of The Ensign Group Inc (ENSG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into The Ensign Group Inc (+12.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of The Ensign Group Inc (ENSG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.31 %: that much free cash flow The Ensign Group Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of The Ensign Group Inc (ENSG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For The Ensign Group Inc it is $140.09 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $188.31. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is The Ensign Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, ENSG trades above its calculated fair value: price $188.31, fair value $140.09, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ENSG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($188.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($140.09). For The Ensign Group Inc the two are $48.22 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is The Ensign Group Inc worth?
The market values The Ensign Group Inc at about $11.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $188.31; our models calculate a fair value of $140.09 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ENSG?
Our models span a range for The Ensign Group Inc: cautious scenario $98.07, base $140.09, optimistic $182.12 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $188.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ENSG?
The Ensign Group Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.0 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $140.09 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2019 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2019, FY2023 ex one-offs: 24.6. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 5.0, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 18.6.
What is the PEG ratio of ENSG?
The PEG ratio of The Ensign Group Inc is 1.45 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of The Ensign Group Inc (ENSG)?
Balance-sheet figures for The Ensign Group Inc (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 17.1%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ENSG from its 52-week high?
The Ensign Group Inc trades at $188.31, about 13% below its 52-week high of $215.67 and 28% above the low of $147.07 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $140.09 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to The Ensign Group Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value HCA Healthcare, Inc, Fresenius SE, Tenet Healthcare Corporation, Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is The Ensign Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $188.31, calculated fair value $140.09 (−26%), Quality Score 58/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ENSG calculated?
We run The Ensign Group Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $140.09, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. The Ensign Group Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of The Ensign Group Inc (ENSG)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $188.31. Our model-based fair value is $140.09, about 26% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with The Ensign Group Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($182.12). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($98.07 to $182.12) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of The Ensign Group Inc (ENSG) come from?
Earnings per share at The Ensign Group Inc grew +20.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.1 %, EBIT margin +2.4 %, tax rate +2.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of The Ensign Group Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of The Ensign Group Inc (ENSG)?
The market capitalisation of The Ensign Group Inc is $11.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of The Ensign Group Inc (ENSG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of The Ensign Group Inc is 2.04 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of The Ensign Group Inc (ENSG)?
Earnings per share at The Ensign Group Inc are $6.72 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of The Ensign Group Inc (ENSG)?
The dividend yield of The Ensign Group Inc is 0.1% (payout 3.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of The Ensign Group Inc (ENSG)?
The net margin of The Ensign Group Inc is 7.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of The Ensign Group Inc (ENSG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of The Ensign Group Inc is 17.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of The Ensign Group Inc (ENSG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of The Ensign Group Inc is 7.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at The Ensign Group Inc (ENSG)?
Revenue at The Ensign Group Inc is growing +14.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at The Ensign Group Inc (ENSG)?
Earnings per share at The Ensign Group Inc are growing +23.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does The Ensign Group Inc (ENSG) carry?
The net debt of The Ensign Group Inc is $3.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 9.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026