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Fresenius Medical Care AG (FMS) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · US · Market cap $12.7B

FM Fresenius Medical Care AG logo Fresenius Medical Care AG FMS · US
Price$24.27
Fair Value$45.60
Upside+87.9%
Quality64/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 4.9% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
3.67% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (10/15)
Moderate moat 47/100
Evidence: High Range $27.84 – $57.00 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 17 days ago

Share price +1.4% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 88% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case ($27.84). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range ($27.84 to $57.00) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$36.37 $11.33 Fair Value $45.60 Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $11.33 – $36.37 · fair‑value band $27.84 – $57.00 · the $24.27 price screens below the $45.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

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Analysis

Fresenius Medical Care AG (FMS) currently trades at $24.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $45.60, implying the stock looks roughly 87.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Fresenius Medical Care AG generated revenue of $19.4B at a net margin of 4.9%. Revenue declined 5.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.9%. Net debt stands at $9.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $27.84 (bear case) to $57.00 (bull case); at $24.27, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at 88%, FMS screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $27.95 $43.72 $65.81 80
Residual Income $21.52 $22.61 $24.02 76
Rev-Margin DCF $23.60 $40.71 $59.77 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $27.14 $44.56 $70.29 38
Owner Earnings $23.22 $38.68 $61.51 31
5Y Revenue Exit $23.60 $40.46 $61.50 39
5Y EBITDA Exit $40.69 $71.66 $107.14 41
5Y P/E Exit $21.84 $37.23 $52.87 38
10Y Revenue Exit $23.67 $39.18 $59.04 36
10Y EBITDA Exit $35.37 $60.56 $93.10 37
10Y P/E Exit $23.47 $36.96 $52.60 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $12.39 $33.95 $44.54 54
Lynch FV $6.73 $9.62 $12.50 50
PEG = 1.0 $6.73 $9.62 $12.50 46
EPV $19.08 $23.53 $27.42 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $6.94 $14.42 $22.88 70
DDM Multi-Stage $6.94 $10.88 $15.05 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple $30.05 $40.07 $50.09 63
P/S Multiple $23.22 $30.97 $38.71 58
P/B Multiple $23.22 $30.97 $38.71 55
EV/EBIT $35.74 $50.20 $64.65 53
EV/EBITDA $55.57 $76.63 $97.70 54
EV/Revenue $23.33 $36.59 $49.86 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $13.30 $17.82 $26.59 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $27.95 $43.72 $65.81 80
Rev-Margin DCF $23.60 $40.71 $59.77 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income $21.52 $22.61 $24.02 76
ROIC Compounder $19.08 $23.53 $28.20 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $23.73 $33.90 $44.07 68

Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($40.71) versus Earnings-Based ($9.62). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $19.4B
Revenue growth (YoY) -5.5%
Net margin 4.9%
Return on equity 7.9%
Free cash flow $1.7B FY2025
P/E ratio 12.4
More key figures
Operating margin 8.1%
EPS (TTM) $1.90
Dividend yield 3.7%
EPS growth (YoY) -17.1%
Net debt $9.2B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 64/100

Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54

Profitability 34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 57
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 62
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 46
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 71
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 49
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 46
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 94
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Fresenius Medical Care AG provides dialysis and related services for individuals with renal diseases in Germany, the United States, and internationally.

Full company description

Fresenius Medical Care AG provides dialysis and related services for individuals with renal diseases in Germany, the United States, and internationally. The company offers dialysis treatment and related laboratory and diagnostic services through a network of outpatient dialysis clinics; materials, training, and patient support services comprising clinical monitoring, follow-up assistance, and arranging for delivery of the supplies to the patient's residence; and dialysis services under contract to hospitals in the United States for the hospitalized end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients and for patients suffering from acute kidney failure. The company operates through Care Delivery and Care Enablement segments. It also develops, manufactures, and distributes various health care products, including hemodialysis machines, peritoneal dialysis cyclers, peritoneal dialysis solutions, hemodialysis concentrates, solutions and granulates, bloodlines, renal pharmaceuticals, systems for water treatment, and acute cardiopulmonary and apheresis products. In addition, the company develops, acquires, and in-licenses renal pharmaceuticals; offers renal medications and supplies to patients at homes or to dialysis clinics; and provides vascular specialty, ambulatory surgery center, physician nephrology practice management, pharmacy and other services. The company sells its products to dialysis clinics, hospitals, and specialized treatment clinics, as well as through local sales forces, independent distributors, dealers, and sales agents. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Bad Homburg, Germany.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Fresenius Medical Care AG reported revenue of $19.6B in FY2025 versus $17.6B in FY2021, a compound +2.7%/yr. Reported net income was $978M in FY2025, compounding +0.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$19.6B
Latest YoY
+1.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+0.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+1.9%
Avg. growth/yr (28Y)
+7.0%
Revenue +2.7%/yr
FY21 $17.6B
FY22 $19.4B
FY23 $19.5B
FY24 $19.3B
FY25 $19.6B
Net income +0.2%/yr
FY21 $969M
FY22 $673M
FY23 $499M
FY24 $538M
FY25 $978M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Fresenius Medical Care AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FMS

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Medical Care Facilities · 262 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +88% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 8% · Below median
Revenue growth -6% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.7% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.40× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.89× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.66× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 7.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 6.5× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.84× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 22
FUTURE 0 · sector 24
PAST 31 · sector 30
HEALTH 80 · sector 90
DIVIDEND 73 · sector 38

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Medical Care Facilities stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
HCA Healthcare, Inc HCA $378.85 $554.93 +46%
Fresenius SE FRE €41.73 €32.15 -23%
Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group 4013 235.00 SAR 112.37 SAR -52%
IHH Healthcare Berhad, an investment holding company, Q0F 2.58 SGD 1.44 SGD -44%
Tenet Healthcare Corporation THC $194.91 $338.05 +73%
Rede D'Or São Luiz S.A RDOR3 R$36.01 R$47.31 +31%
DaVita Inc DVA $231.61 $255.97 +11%
Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited APOLLOHOSP ₹8,955 ₹2,955 -67%
Aier Eye Hospital Group 300015 ¥8.68 ¥7.67 -12%
Max Healthcare Institute Limited MAXHEALTH ₹1,103 ₹284.87 -74%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Fresenius Medical Care AG (FMS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $45.60 versus a price of $24.27, about +88% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of FMS?
Our model-based fair value for Fresenius Medical Care AG is $45.60 (as of Jul 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $24.27.
What is the quality score of FMS?
Fresenius Medical Care AG has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Fresenius Medical Care AG (FMS)?
Fresenius Medical Care AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $19.4B (latest available figure, as of Jul 24, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of FMS?
The net profit margin of Fresenius Medical Care AG is about 4.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Fresenius Medical Care AG pay a dividend?
Fresenius Medical Care AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.67% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 24, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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