Manulife Financial Corp (MFC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Manulife Financial Corp stock $26.95, price $44.63, that is 39.6% below the price, quality 68 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $12.80 – $45.62 · fair‑value band $20.22 – $33.69 · the $44.63 price screens above the $26.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Manulife Financial Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides financial products and services in the United States, Canada, Asia, and internationally. It operates through Wealth and Asset Management Businesses; Insurance and Annuity Products; and Corporate and Other segments.
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The Wealth and Asset Management Businesses segment offers investment advice and solutions to retirement, retail, and institutional clients through multiple distribution channels, including agents and brokers affiliated with the company, independent securities brokerage firms and financial advisors pension plan consultants, and banks.
The Insurance and Annuity Products segment provides deposit and credit products; and individual life insurance, individual and group long-term care insurance, and guaranteed and partially guaranteed annuity products through multiple distribution channels, including insurance agents, brokers, banks, financial planners, and direct marketing.
The Corporate and Other segment is involved in the property and casualty reinsurance businesses; and run-off reinsurance operations, including variable annuities, and accident and health.
The company also manages timberland and agricultural portfolios; and engages in the insurance agency, broker dealer, investment counseling, portfolio and mutual fund management, property and casualty insurance, and fund and investment management businesses.
In addition, it provides integrated banking products and services, as well as offers asset management services. The company was incorporated in 1887 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
Stock analysis
Manulife Financial Corp (MFC) currently trades at $44.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $26.95, 39.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $24.16 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $44.63 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $11.20, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $20.22 (bear) to $33.69 (bull), the price of $44.63 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Manulife Financial Corp reported revenue of C$53.0B in FY2025 versus C$59.8B in FY2021, a compound −3.0%/yr. Reported net income was C$5.8B in FY2025, compounding −3.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $74.5B Large · P/E ratio 16.7 · P/S ratio 1.82 · EPS (TTM) $2.67 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 10.9% · Return on equity 13.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 66 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −40%, MFC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$20.22Fair Value $26.95Bull$33.69
Price $44.63 · Downside -39.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.13 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.9% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.3% vs 8.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 13%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−25.3%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CAD, Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −26.8% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (77 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Scale and cash conversion provide moderate moat signals, yet limited differentiation in life insurance and absent data constrain competitive strength.
Main risk: Regulatory review of quick-return products risks triggering mass surrenders and liquidity pressure across life insurance operations.
Manulife has closed its reinsurance transaction on a block of long-term care policies with Munich Re. This transfers biometric risk from policies that can generate volatile claims over many decades. Our models currently see it as overvalued. Does the added capital flexibility strengthen its core insurance operations more than it caps retained upside from those same liabilities?
Compare Manulife Financial Corp with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Life · 77 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−39.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)13.3% · Above median
Return on assets0.6% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)20.3% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)28.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)10.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.25× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)16.7× · Pricier than median
P/B2.04× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)3.15× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow3.3× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA9.6× · Pricier than median
PEG0.88× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 7
FUTURE (revenue growth)54· sector 45
PAST (return on equity)53· sector 52
HEALTH (low debt)87· sector 87
DIVIDEND (yield)59· sector 55
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Manulife Financial Corp (MFC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $26.95 versus a price of $44.63, about 40% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MFC?
Our model-based fair value for Manulife Financial Corp is $26.95 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $44.63.
What is the quality score of MFC?
Manulife Financial Corp has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Manulife Financial Corp (MFC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $26.95 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $20.22, optimistic scenario $33.69. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Manulife Financial Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $26.95, about 40% lower versus a price of $44.63 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $20.22, optimistic scenario $33.69. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Manulife Financial Corp (MFC)?
Manulife Financial Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$33.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Manulife Financial Corp pay a dividend?
Manulife Financial Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 2.96% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Manulife Financial Corp (MFC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Manulife Financial Corp would have to grow free cash flow by -25.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -7.2 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MFC use?
Our models discount Manulife Financial Corp at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.74, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Manulife Financial Corp that is -25.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Manulife Financial Corp (MFC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Manulife Financial Corp grew -7.2 % a year. The price currently implies -25.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Manulife Financial Corp (MFC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Manulife Financial Corp (-25.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Manulife Financial Corp (MFC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 30.78 %: that much free cash flow Manulife Financial Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Manulife Financial Corp (MFC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Manulife Financial Corp it is $26.95 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of $44.63. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Manulife Financial Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, MFC trades above its calculated fair value: price $44.63, fair value $26.95, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MFC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($44.63); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($26.95). For Manulife Financial Corp the two are $17.68 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Manulife Financial Corp worth?
The market values Manulife Financial Corp at about $74.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is $44.63; our models calculate a fair value of $26.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MFC?
Our models span a range for Manulife Financial Corp: cautious scenario $20.22, base $26.95, optimistic $33.69 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price $44.63). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MFC?
Manulife Financial Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.7 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $26.95 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 9.9. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 2.0, P/S 3.1, EV/EBITDA 9.6.
What is the PEG ratio of MFC?
The PEG ratio of Manulife Financial Corp is 0.88 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Manulife Financial Corp (MFC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Manulife Financial Corp (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 13.3%, debt of 0.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MFC from its 52-week high?
Manulife Financial Corp trades at $44.63, about 2% below its 52-week high of $45.62 and 44% above the low of $31.00 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $26.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Manulife Financial Corp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Ping An Insurance (Group) Company, China Life Insurance Company, AIA Group, Fubon Financial Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Manulife Financial Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price $44.63, calculated fair value $26.95 (−40%), Quality Score 68/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MFC calculated?
We run Manulife Financial Corp through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $26.95, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Manulife Financial Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Manulife Financial Corp (MFC)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was $44.63. Our model-based fair value is $26.95, about 40% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Manulife Financial Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($33.69). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Manulife Financial Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Manulife Financial Corp (MFC)?
The market capitalisation of Manulife Financial Corp is $74.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Manulife Financial Corp (MFC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Manulife Financial Corp is 1.82 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Manulife Financial Corp (MFC)?
Earnings per share at Manulife Financial Corp are $2.67 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Manulife Financial Corp (MFC)?
The dividend yield of Manulife Financial Corp is 3.0% (payout 49.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Manulife Financial Corp (MFC)?
The net margin of Manulife Financial Corp is 10.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Manulife Financial Corp (MFC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Manulife Financial Corp is 13.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Manulife Financial Corp (MFC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Manulife Financial Corp is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Manulife Financial Corp (MFC)?
The operating margin of Manulife Financial Corp is 28.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Manulife Financial Corp (MFC)?
Revenue at Manulife Financial Corp is growing +10.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +29.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Manulife Financial Corp (MFC)?
Earnings per share at Manulife Financial Corp are growing +22.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Manulife Financial Corp (MFC) hold?
Manulife Financial Corp holds more cash than debt, C$237M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 1, 2026