Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 12, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd stock ZAR 51.53, price ZAR 37.89, upside +36.0%, quality 45 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R13.75 – R80.33 · fair‑value band R24.48 – R63.79 · the R37.89 price screens below the R51.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 11, 2026.
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Sibanye Stillwater Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a precious metals mining company in South Africa, the United States, Europe, and Australia.
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The company produces gold; platinum group metals (PGMs), including palladium, platinum, rhodium, iridium, and ruthenium; chrome; lithium; zinc; nickel; and silver, cobalt, and copper. Sibanye Stillwater Limited was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Weltevredenpark, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW) currently trades at R37.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R51.53, implying the stock looks roughly 26% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R108.91 per share, and 10 of the 13 models we run sit above the R37.89 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R8.89, and 3 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: R24.48 (bear) to R63.79 (bull), the price of R37.89 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Sibanye Stillwater Ltd reported revenue of 130B ZAR in FY2025 versus 172B ZAR in FY2021, a compound −6.8%/yr. Reported net income was −5.2B ZAR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 122B ZAR Mid · P/E ratio 7.4 · P/S ratio 0.74 · EPS (TTM) R5.15 · Dividend yield 8.8% · Net margin 9.8% · Return on equity 34.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.4% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 36%, SSW screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearR24.48Fair Value R51.53BullR63.79
Price R37.89 · Upside +36.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.59 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFR8.61R17.23R33.3876
Growth DCFR8.15R16.65R27.4476
EPVR42.18R47.59R51.9374
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFR8.61R17.23R33.3876
5Y Revenue ExitR28.61R63.35R113.5069
5Y EBITDA ExitR50.19R110.54R191.1972
10Y Revenue ExitR18.40R45.05R90.7562
10Y EBITDA ExitR31.85R74.78R147.9664
Earnings-Based
EPVR42.18R47.59R51.9374
Multiples
EV/EBITR79.28R108.91R138.5566
EV/EBITDAR81.31R111.62R141.9367
EV/RevenueR38.49R59.11R79.7253
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)R6.63R8.89R13.2754
Growth DCF
Growth DCFR8.15R16.65R27.4476
Rev-Margin DCFR28.61R61.50R106.7969
Economic Profit
ROIC CompounderR47.68R60.22R74.5572
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +19.0% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
31.5% (2020) → 18.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+47.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+13.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +42.4% a year for the price and +9.4% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: The commoditized mining business lacks any durable advantages, with its main strength in positive cash flows from resolved US strikes undermined by sustained negative returns and high leverage.
Main risk: Renewal of mining licences in about two years could trigger new black economic empowerment requirements that alter the economics of projects such as Burnstone.
Bull case: Successful resolution of empowerment negotiations could secure licence renewals on favourable terms and allow the company to expand gold output from projects like Burnstone while maintaining PGM operations.
Bear case: If new empowerment rules at licence renewal materially worsen project economics, long-term investments in South African gold and PGM assets could become unviable and force a contraction of the core business.
Sibanye Stillwater is committing R6 billion to restart the Burnstone gold project even though its mining licence renewal in about two years could trigger empowerment requirements that alter the economics. Recent US labor agreements ended strikes and supported stronger first-half cash flows, yet South African regulatory uncertainty remains a factor for long-term projects. Does the shift toward gold and recycling deliver more durable value than the PGM operations can sustain amid these risks?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Precious Metals & Mining · 150 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Above median
Fair Value upside+36.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)34.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets−3.5% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)9.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)30.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)64.3% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)8.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.81× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
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Is Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R51.53 versus a price of R37.89, about +36% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SSW?
Our model-based fair value for Sibanye Stillwater Ltd is R51.53 (as of Nov 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R37.89.
What is the quality score of SSW?
Sibanye Stillwater Ltd has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R51.53 (as of Nov 11, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario R24.48, optimistic scenario R63.79. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sibanye Stillwater Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R51.53, about +36% upside versus a price of R37.89 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R24.48, optimistic scenario R63.79. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW)?
Sibanye Stillwater Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 165B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Nov 11, 2026).
Does Sibanye Stillwater Ltd pay a dividend?
Sibanye Stillwater Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 8.76% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 11, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Sibanye Stillwater Ltd pays a dividend of R3.32 per share a year, a dividend yield of 8.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 16, 2026. The payout ratio is 64.5% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.19 times. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What growth is priced into Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sibanye Stillwater Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +47.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.4 % per year. As of Nov 11, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SSW use?
Our models discount Sibanye Stillwater Ltd at 13.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.92, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sibanye Stillwater Ltd that is +47.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (13.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sibanye Stillwater Ltd grew +0.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +47.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (+47.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.49 %: that much free cash flow Sibanye Stillwater Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sibanye Stillwater Ltd it is R51.53 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026), against a price of R37.89. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Sibanye Stillwater Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 11, 2026, SSW trades below its calculated fair value: price R37.89, fair value R51.53, a gap of about +36% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SSW?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R37.89); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R51.53). For Sibanye Stillwater Ltd the two are R13.64 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sibanye Stillwater Ltd worth?
The market values Sibanye Stillwater Ltd at about 122B ZAR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 11, 2026). Per share that is R37.89; our models calculate a fair value of R51.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SSW?
Our models span a range for Sibanye Stillwater Ltd: cautious scenario R24.48, base R51.53, optimistic R63.79 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026, price R37.89). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SSW?
Sibanye Stillwater Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.4 (as of Nov 11, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R51.53 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 10.2 (the reported result was a loss). Other multiples: P/B 3.1, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 2.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (as of Nov 11, 2026): return on equity 34.7%, debt of 0.81 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SSW from its 52-week high?
Sibanye Stillwater Ltd trades at R37.89, about 53% below its 52-week high of R80.33 and 16% above the low of R32.69 (as of Nov 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R51.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sibanye Stillwater Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk, Hecla Mining Company, China Gold International Resources Corp, Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A., among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sibanye Stillwater Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 11, 2026: price R37.89, calculated fair value R51.53 (+36%), Quality Score 45/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SSW calculated?
We run Sibanye Stillwater Ltd through 13 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of R51.53 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3% above its aggregate fair value. Sibanye Stillwater Ltd currently trades 26% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW)?
The closing price on Nov 12, 2026 was R37.89. Our model-based fair value is R51.53, about +36% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sibanye Stillwater Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (45/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide (R24.48 to R63.79). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW)?
The market capitalisation of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd is 122B ZAR. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd is 0.74 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW)?
Earnings per share at Sibanye Stillwater Ltd are R5.15 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW)?
The dividend yield of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd is 8.8% (payout 64.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW)?
The net margin of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd is 9.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd is 34.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd is 16.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW)?
The operating margin of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd is 30.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW)?
Revenue at Sibanye Stillwater Ltd is growing +64.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW)?
Earnings per share at Sibanye Stillwater Ltd are growing −38.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW) carry?
The net debt of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd is 27.2B ZAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 14.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 11, 2026