Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd ZAR 56.29, price ZAR 41.39, upside +36.0%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R13.75 – R80.33 · fair‑value band R26.92 – R69.56 · the R41.39 price screens below the R56.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Sibanye Stillwater Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a precious metals mining company in South Africa, the United States, Europe, and Australia. The company produces gold; platinum group metals (PGMs), including palladium, platinum, rhodium, iridium, and ruthenium; chrome; lithium; zinc; nickel; and silver, cobalt, and copper.
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Sibanye Stillwater Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a precious metals mining company in South Africa, the United States, Europe, and Australia. The company produces gold; platinum group metals (PGMs), including palladium, platinum, rhodium, iridium, and ruthenium; chrome; lithium; zinc; nickel; and silver, cobalt, and copper. Sibanye Stillwater Limited was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Weltevredenpark, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW) currently trades at R41.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R56.29, implying the stock looks roughly 26.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R113.34 per share, and 10 of the 15 models we run sit above the R41.39 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R9.36, and 5 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: R26.92 (bear) to R69.56 (bull), the price of R41.39 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Sibanye Stillwater Ltd reported revenue of 130B ZAR in FY2025 versus 172B ZAR in FY2021, a compound −6.8%/yr. Reported net income was −5.2B ZAR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 133B ZAC · P/E ratio 8.2 · P/S ratio 0.74 · EPS (TTM) R5.05 · Dividend yield 8.0% · Net margin −4.0% · Return on equity 34.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 36%, SSW screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R26.92Fair Value R56.29Bull R69.56
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.29 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +19.0% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
31.5% (2020) → 18.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+49.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +44.3% a year for the price and +6.4% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Precious Metals & Mining · 105 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Above median
Fair Value upside+36.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)34.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets15.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)9.8% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)30.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth64.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)8.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.81× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
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Is Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R56.29 versus a price of R41.39, about +36% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SSW?
Our model-based fair value for Sibanye Stillwater Ltd is R56.29 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R41.39.
What is the quality score of SSW?
Sibanye Stillwater Ltd has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R56.29 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario R26.92, optimistic scenario R69.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sibanye Stillwater Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R56.29, about +36% upside versus a price of R41.39 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R26.92, optimistic scenario R69.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW)?
Sibanye Stillwater Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 165B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Sibanye Stillwater Ltd pay a dividend?
Sibanye Stillwater Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.02% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sibanye Stillwater Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +49.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.4 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SSW use?
Our models discount Sibanye Stillwater Ltd at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.97, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sibanye Stillwater Ltd that is +49.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sibanye Stillwater Ltd grew +0.4 % a year. The price currently implies +49.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (+49.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.37 %: that much free cash flow Sibanye Stillwater Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sibanye Stillwater Ltd it is R56.29 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of R41.39. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sibanye Stillwater Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, SSW trades below its calculated fair value: price R41.39, fair value R56.29, a gap of about +36% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SSW?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R41.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R56.29). For Sibanye Stillwater Ltd the two are R14.90 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sibanye Stillwater Ltd worth?
The market values Sibanye Stillwater Ltd at about 133B ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is R41.39; our models calculate a fair value of R56.29 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SSW?
Our models span a range for Sibanye Stillwater Ltd: cautious scenario R26.92, base R56.29, optimistic R69.56 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price R41.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SSW?
Sibanye Stillwater Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.2 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R56.29 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 11.1 (the reported result was a loss). Other multiples: P/B 3.4, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 2.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 34.7%, debt of 0.81 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SSW from its 52-week high?
Sibanye Stillwater Ltd trades at R41.39, about 48% below its 52-week high of R80.33 and 27% above the low of R32.69 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R56.29 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sibanye Stillwater Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk, Hecla Mining Company, Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A., China Gold International Resources Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sibanye Stillwater Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price R41.39, calculated fair value R56.29 (+36%), Quality Score 47/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SSW calculated?
We run Sibanye Stillwater Ltd through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R56.29, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Sibanye Stillwater Ltd currently trades 36 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was R41.39. Our model-based fair value is R56.29, about +36% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sibanye Stillwater Ltd right now?
Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (R26.92 to R69.56) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW)?
The market capitalisation of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd is 133B ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd is 0.74 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW)?
Earnings per share at Sibanye Stillwater Ltd are R5.05 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW)?
The dividend yield of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd is 8.0% (payout 65.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW)?
The net margin of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd is −4.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd is 34.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd is 16.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW)?
The operating margin of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd is 30.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW)?
Revenue at Sibanye Stillwater Ltd is growing +64.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW)?
Earnings per share at Sibanye Stillwater Ltd are growing −38.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSW) carry?
The net debt of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd is 27.2B ZAC (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 14.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 27, 2026