The Travelers Companies Inc (TRV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of The Travelers Companies Inc stock $255, price $403, that is 36.7% below the price, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $132.29 – $409.25 · fair‑value band $201.08 – $349.72 · the $402.89 price screens above the $254.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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The Travelers Companies, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides a range of commercial and personal property, and casualty insurance products and services to businesses, government units, associations, and individuals in the United States, Canada, and internationally.
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It operates through three segments: Business Insurance, Bond & Specialty Insurance, and Personal Insurance.
The Business Insurance segment offers workers' compensation, commercial automobile and property, general liability, commercial multi-peril, employers' liability, public and product liability, professional indemnity, marine, aviation, commercial property and automobile, onshore and offshore energy, construction, terrorism, personal accident, and kidnap and ransom insurance products.
This segment operates through select accounts, which serve small businesses; middle accounts that serve mid-sized businesses; national accounts, which serve large companies; and national property and others that serve large and mid-sized customers, commercial trucking industry, and agricultural businesses, as well as markets and distributes its products through brokers, wholesale agents, and program managers.
The Bond & Specialty Insurance segment provides surety, fidelity, management and professional liability, and other property and casualty coverages and related risk management services through independent agencies and brokers.
The Personal Insurance segment offers property and casualty insurance covering personal risks, primarily automobile and homeowners' insurance to individuals. The Travelers Companies, Inc. was founded in 1853 and is based in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
The Travelers Companies Inc (TRV) currently trades at $402.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $254.84, 37% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $254.84 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $402.89 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $79.39, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $201.08 (bear) to $349.72 (bull), the price of $402.89 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
The Travelers Companies Inc reported revenue of $48.8B in FY2025 versus $34.8B in FY2021, a compound +8.8%/yr. Reported net income was $6.3B in FY2025, compounding +14.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $86.1B Large · P/E ratio 10.3 · P/S ratio 1.76 · EPS (TTM) $39.04 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 17.0% · Return on equity 27.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 73 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −37%, TRV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$201.08Fair Value $254.84Bull$349.72
Price $402.89 · Downside -36.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($29.17 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Plus 22 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.2% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+14.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.21.1% vs 9.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 16%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−14.1%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −16.1% a year for the price and −2.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: Profitability metrics and sector position support moderate durability, yet thin evidence and the cyclical nature of insurance limit any claim to lasting advantage.
Main risk: Changes in state insurance regulations on rates and policy forms could limit Travelers' ability to adjust premiums adequately for risks in property and casualty lines, squeezing underwriting margins.
Bull case: Travelers could leverage its AI platforms in underwriting and claims to demonstrate superior risk selection and efficiency, helping secure regulatory approvals for rate adjustments and sustaining profitability.
Bear case: If regulatory constraints tighten further amid rising catastrophe or litigation costs, Travelers might face persistent margin pressure and reduced ability to grow profitably in core lines.
Travelers is investing in AI platforms for underwriting and claims to sharpen risk selection and cut expenses. These steps help sustain its record of beating estimates yet also increase technology outlays that may hurt profitability if the benefits lag. Will the efficiency gains from AI more than offset the higher spending, or will they add a lasting cost burden?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 100 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "The Travelers Companies Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TRV
Frequently asked questions
Is The Travelers Companies Inc (TRV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $254.84 versus a price of $402.89, about 37% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TRV?
Our model-based fair value for The Travelers Companies Inc is $254.84 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $402.89.
What is the quality score of TRV?
The Travelers Companies Inc has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for The Travelers Companies Inc (TRV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $254.84 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $201.08, optimistic scenario $349.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the The Travelers Companies Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $254.84, about 37% lower versus a price of $402.89 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $201.08, optimistic scenario $349.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of The Travelers Companies Inc (TRV)?
The Travelers Companies Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $48.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does The Travelers Companies Inc pay a dividend?
The Travelers Companies Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.17% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into The Travelers Companies Inc (TRV)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, The Travelers Companies Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -14.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.8 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TRV use?
Our models discount The Travelers Companies Inc at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.44, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For The Travelers Companies Inc that is -14.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has The Travelers Companies Inc (TRV) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at The Travelers Companies Inc grew +8.8 % a year. The price currently implies -14.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of The Travelers Companies Inc (TRV) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into The Travelers Companies Inc (-14.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of The Travelers Companies Inc (TRV)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.32 %: that much free cash flow The Travelers Companies Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of The Travelers Companies Inc (TRV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For The Travelers Companies Inc it is $254.84 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $402.89. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is The Travelers Companies Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, TRV trades above its calculated fair value: price $402.89, fair value $254.84, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TRV?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($402.89); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($254.84). For The Travelers Companies Inc the two are $148.05 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is The Travelers Companies Inc worth?
The market values The Travelers Companies Inc at about $86.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $402.89; our models calculate a fair value of $254.84 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TRV?
Our models span a range for The Travelers Companies Inc: cautious scenario $201.08, base $254.84, optimistic $349.72 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $402.89). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TRV?
The Travelers Companies Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.3 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $254.84 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 10.9. Other multiples: PEG 2.7, P/B 2.6, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 8.2.
What is the PEG ratio of TRV?
The PEG ratio of The Travelers Companies Inc is 2.70 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of The Travelers Companies Inc (TRV)?
Balance-sheet figures for The Travelers Companies Inc (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 27.5%, debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TRV from its 52-week high?
The Travelers Companies Inc trades at $402.89, about 2% below its 52-week high of $409.25 and 51% above the low of $266.41 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $254.84 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to The Travelers Companies Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Chubb Limited, The Progressive Corporation, The Allstate Corporation, The People's Insurance Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is The Travelers Companies Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $402.89, calculated fair value $254.84 (−37%), Quality Score 61/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TRV calculated?
We run The Travelers Companies Inc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $254.84, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. The Travelers Companies Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of The Travelers Companies Inc (TRV)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $402.89. Our model-based fair value is $254.84, about 37% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with The Travelers Companies Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($349.72). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of The Travelers Companies Inc (TRV) come from?
Earnings per share at The Travelers Companies Inc grew +7.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.7 %, EBIT margin −3.2 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of The Travelers Companies Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of The Travelers Companies Inc (TRV)?
The market capitalisation of The Travelers Companies Inc is $86.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of The Travelers Companies Inc (TRV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of The Travelers Companies Inc is 1.76 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of The Travelers Companies Inc (TRV)?
Earnings per share at The Travelers Companies Inc are $39.04 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of The Travelers Companies Inc (TRV)?
The dividend yield of The Travelers Companies Inc is 1.2% (payout 12.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of The Travelers Companies Inc (TRV)?
The net margin of The Travelers Companies Inc is 17.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of The Travelers Companies Inc (TRV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of The Travelers Companies Inc is 27.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of The Travelers Companies Inc (TRV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of The Travelers Companies Inc is 3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of The Travelers Companies Inc (TRV)?
The operating margin of The Travelers Companies Inc is 20.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at The Travelers Companies Inc (TRV)?
Revenue at The Travelers Companies Inc is growing −0.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at The Travelers Companies Inc (TRV)?
Earnings per share at The Travelers Companies Inc are growing +9.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does The Travelers Companies Inc (TRV) carry?
The net debt of The Travelers Companies Inc is $8.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026