Waters Corporation (WAT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Waters Corporation stock $91.26, price $453, that is 79.9% below the price, quality 46 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Our calculation puts a fair price 80% below what the stock costs today.
Healthy Growth(revenue 5y +6.0 %/yr in USD)
Generates free cash flow
Upbeat coverage
Revenue last quarter +113% vs. a year ago.
Quality 46/100
Thin margins · 3.6% net margin (TTM)
Moderate debt
Moderate moat47/100 · thin data
Insiders sold $1.4M (6M)
Some data
Fair value $91.26 · Strongly overvalued (−79.9%)
Trails peers(2/14)
⚠ Dilution
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Larger rivals like TMO and DHR intensify pricing pressure🚩Acquisition debt raises leverage and integration costs🚩Stricter FDA and regional rules raise compliance costs
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $236.70 – $480.07 · fair‑value band $55.98 – $132.91 · the $453.08 price screens above the $91.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Waters Corporation provides analytical workflow solutions in Asia, the Americas, and Europe.
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The company operates through two segments, Waters and TA. The company designs, manufactures, sells, and services liquid chromatography, as well as mass spectrometry (MS) technology systems and supports products, including chromatography columns, and other consumable products.
It also designs, manufactures, sells, and services thermal analysis, rheometry, and calorimetry instruments for use in predicting the suitability and stability of fine chemicals, pharmaceuticals, water, polymers, metals, and viscous liquids for various industrial, consumer goods, and healthcare products, as well as for life science research; and develops and supplies software-based products that interface with its instruments, as well as other manufacturers' instruments.
In addition, the company offers MS technology, which is used in drug discovery and development comprising clinical trial testing, the analysis of proteins in disease processes, nutritional safety analysis, and environmental testing.
Its products are used by clinical, pharmaceutical, biochemical, industrial, nutritional safety, environmental, academic, and governmental customers working in research and development, quality assurance, and other laboratory applications.
The company was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Milford, Massachusetts.
Stock analysis
Waters Corporation (WAT) currently trades at $453.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $91.26, 80% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $121.96 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $453.08 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $34.82, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $55.98 (bear) to $132.91 (bull), the price of $453.08 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Waters Corporation reported revenue of $3.2B in FY2025 versus $2.8B in FY2021, a compound +3.2%/yr. Reported net income was $643M in FY2025, compounding −1.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $44.5B Large · P/E ratio 114.7 · P/S ratio 23.3 · EPS (TTM) $3.95 · Net margin 20.3% · Return on equity 1.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 21.3% · Operating margin 9.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 60% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −80%, WAT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($4.52 to $147.57). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$55.98Fair Value $91.26Bull$132.91
Price $453.08 · Downside -79.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.35 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$53.57$82.52$123.3480
Growth DCF$54.75$80.75$115.4578
Owner Earnings$47.83$74.10$111.1476
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$53.57$82.52$123.3480
Owner Earnings$47.83$74.10$111.1476
5Y Revenue Exit$54.85$90.48$135.1472
5Y EBITDA Exit$79.84$136.13$200.6274
5Y P/E Exit$74.53$126.42$179.6270
10Y Revenue Exit$51.84$83.37$124.0166
10Y EBITDA Exit$69.13$113.86$171.6467
10Y P/E Exit$65.86$107.37$156.3763
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$44.51$122.49$160.7865
Lynch FV$24.37$34.82$45.2761
PEG = 1.0$24.37$34.82$45.2757
EPV$63.49$74.75$84.4574
Multiples
P/E Multiple$107.99$143.99$179.9963
P/S Multiple$83.45$111.27$139.0858
P/B Multiple$22.79$30.39$37.9855
EV/EBIT$106.79$145.45$184.1266
EV/EBITDA$108.38$147.57$186.7667
EV/Revenue$58.50$87.51$116.5353
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$3.38$4.52$6.7554
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$54.75$80.75$115.4578
Rev-Margin DCF$54.85$90.81$130.8272
Economic Profit
Residual Income$37.09$46.03$71.9969
ROIC Compounder$67.39$84.61$103.4272
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$85.37$121.96$158.5567
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $1.4M and none bought.
SaleChristopher A KueblerDirector3,626 shares at $397.94$1.4MAug 6, 2026
BuyWei JiangDirector500 shares at $289.46$144,730Mar 16, 2026
BuyRichard H FearonDirector1,000 shares at $306.34$306,340Mar 6, 2026
Plus 7 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.71/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.5% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+4.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.4% vs 6.7%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 28%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+37.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+23.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
The revenue jump in 2026 (+104.0%) comes with 64% more shares (acquisition or merger paid in stock). Per share it is about +24.0%. The comparison above is unreliable in such a year.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +33.9% a year for the price and +20.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (90 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Solid margins and ROE form the main strength, while thin public signals on moat factors and persistent integration demands in analytical instruments remain the key weakness.
Main risk: Competitors like Thermo Fisher and Danaher could capture market share in analytical instruments and diagnostics via broader portfolios and aggressive pricing, squeezing Waters margins and recurring revenue from services and consumables.
Bull case: Waters could leverage its new AI-enabled workflows and expanded flow cytometry portfolio from the BD deal to deepen customer lock-in in regulated pharma QC and precision medicine, offsetting competitive and debt pressures through higher recurring revenue.
Bear case: If rivals erode share and integration costs persist amid high leverage, Waters could face margin compression, slower instrument replacement cycles and reduced ability to invest in differentiation, limiting growth in core analytical and diagnostics segments.
Waters is teaming up with CellCarta to develop companion diagnostics on its flow cytometry platforms, extending reach into precision medicine alongside recent cell analysis tools. Yet the core analytical instruments segment still deals with extended replacement cycles and the demands of integrating acquired businesses. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will these new diagnostic partnerships generate enough momentum to ease those integration and cycle pressures?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Diagnostics & Research · 126 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−79.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)1.9% · Below median
Return on assets12.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)3.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)9.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)113.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.55× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Diagnostics & Research median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Waters Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/WAT
Frequently asked questions
Is Waters Corporation (WAT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $91.26 versus a price of $453.08, about 80% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of WAT?
Our model-based fair value for Waters Corporation is $91.26 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $453.08.
What is the quality score of WAT?
Waters Corporation has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Waters Corporation (WAT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $91.26 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $55.98, optimistic scenario $132.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Waters Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $91.26, about 80% lower versus a price of $453.08 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $55.98, optimistic scenario $132.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Waters Corporation (WAT)?
Waters Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Waters Corporation (WAT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Waters Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +37.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.0 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of WAT use?
Our models discount Waters Corporation at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.15, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Waters Corporation that is +37.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Waters Corporation (WAT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Waters Corporation grew +6.0 % a year. The price currently implies +37.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Waters Corporation (WAT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Waters Corporation (+37.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Waters Corporation (WAT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.21 %: that much free cash flow Waters Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Waters Corporation (WAT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Waters Corporation it is $91.26 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $453.08. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Waters Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, WAT trades above its calculated fair value: price $453.08, fair value $91.26, a gap of about −80% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WAT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($453.08); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($91.26). For Waters Corporation the two are $361.82 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Waters Corporation worth?
The market values Waters Corporation at about $44.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $453.08; our models calculate a fair value of $91.26 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WAT?
Our models span a range for Waters Corporation: cautious scenario $55.98, base $91.26, optimistic $132.91 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $453.08). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of WAT?
Waters Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 114.7 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $91.26 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2017 ex one-offs: 30.0. Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/B 17.4, P/S 9.6, EV/EBITDA 31.2.
What is the PEG ratio of WAT?
The PEG ratio of Waters Corporation is 1.67 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Waters Corporation (WAT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Waters Corporation (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 1.9%, debt of 0.55 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WAT from its 52-week high?
Waters Corporation trades at $453.08, about 6% below its 52-week high of $480.07 and 60% above the low of $283.32 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $91.26 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Waters Corporation?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc, Danaher Corporation, WuXi AppTec Co, Lonza Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Waters Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $453.08, calculated fair value $91.26 (−80%), Quality Score 46/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WAT calculated?
We run Waters Corporation through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $91.26, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Waters Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Waters Corporation (WAT)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $453.08. Our model-based fair value is $91.26, about 80% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Waters Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($132.91). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (46/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($55.98 to $132.91) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Waters Corporation (WAT) come from?
Earnings per share at Waters Corporation grew +7.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.3 %, EBIT margin +0.1 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Waters Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Waters Corporation (WAT)?
The market capitalisation of Waters Corporation is $44.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Waters Corporation (WAT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Waters Corporation is 23.3 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Waters Corporation (WAT)?
Earnings per share at Waters Corporation are $3.95 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 114.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Waters Corporation (WAT)?
The net margin of Waters Corporation is 20.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Waters Corporation (WAT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Waters Corporation is 1.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Waters Corporation (WAT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Waters Corporation is 21.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Waters Corporation (WAT)?
The operating margin of Waters Corporation is 9.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Waters Corporation (WAT)?
Revenue at Waters Corporation is growing +113% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Waters Corporation (WAT)?
Earnings per share at Waters Corporation are growing −3.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Waters Corporation (WAT) carry?
The net debt of Waters Corporation is $903M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 4, 2026