ageas SA/NV (AGS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of ageas SA/NV stock €62.66, price €78.50, that is 20.2% below the price, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €27.05 – €78.50 · fair‑value band €52.38 – €85.98 · the €78.50 price screens above the €62.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 4, 2026.
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ageas SA/NV, together with its subsidiaries, engages in insurance business. It operates through five segments: Belgium, Europe, Asia, Reinsurance, and General Account. The company provides property, casualty, and life insurance products, as well as pension products; and reinsurance products.
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It offers life insurance products include risks related to the life, and death of individuals; and non-life insurance products comprise accident and health, motor, and fire insurance products, as well as insurance services for other damages to property; and pension funds.
The company serves private individuals, as well as small, medium-sized, and large companies through independent brokers and the bank channels. ageas SA/NV was founded in 1824 and is based in Brussels, Belgium.
Stock analysis
ageas SA/NV (AGS) currently trades at €78.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €62.66, 20% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of €62.66 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the €78.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €16.17, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €52.38 (bear) to €85.98 (bull), the price of €78.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
ageas SA/NV reported revenue of €9.0B in FY2025 versus €12.9B in FY2021, a compound −8.5%/yr. Reported net income was €1.7B in FY2025, compounding +19.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €15.5B Large · P/E ratio 8.1 · P/S ratio 1.46 · EPS (TTM) €9.72 · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin 17.7% · Return on equity 19.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 55 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at −20%, AGS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€52.38Fair Value €62.66Bull€85.98
Price €78.50 · Downside -20.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€5.27 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.83/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+13.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12.4% vs 15.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 24%
2025 sits 53% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (68 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Ageas draws strength from a reinforced capital position and clear 2027 earnings targets after its Malaysian exit, yet its diversified insurance model shows weakness through softer capital generation and thin evidence of lasting advantages.
Main risk: Limits in the diversified insurance model could constrain the earnings path and capital efficiency if the 2027 targets fail to offset softer generation.
Ageas recently set a clear 2027 earnings target while reaffirming its medium-term growth ambitions after completing the Malaysian joint venture exit. The move strengthens its capital position and supports higher full-year guidance, yet headline strength masks softer capital generation in the first half. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will the earnings path deliver enough to close that gap or expose limits in the diversified insurance model?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Diversified · 73 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Below median
Fair Value upside−20.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)19.8% · Above median
Return on assets1.6% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)17.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)6.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)27.5% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)4.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.67× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ageas SA/NV Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AGS
Frequently asked questions
Is ageas SA/NV (AGS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €62.66 versus a price of €78.50, about 20% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AGS?
Our model-based fair value for ageas SA/NV is €62.66 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €78.50.
What is the quality score of AGS?
ageas SA/NV has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ageas SA/NV (AGS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €62.66 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario €52.38, optimistic scenario €85.98. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ageas SA/NV stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €62.66, about 20% lower versus a price of €78.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €52.38, optimistic scenario €85.98. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ageas SA/NV (AGS)?
ageas SA/NV reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €10.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does ageas SA/NV pay a dividend?
ageas SA/NV currently shows a dividend yield of 4.46% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into ageas SA/NV (AGS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ageas SA/NV would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -4.8 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AGS use?
Our models discount ageas SA/NV at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.55, country premium for Belgium. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ageas SA/NV that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ageas SA/NV (AGS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ageas SA/NV grew -4.8 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ageas SA/NV (AGS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ageas SA/NV (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ageas SA/NV (AGS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.60 %: that much free cash flow ageas SA/NV produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ageas SA/NV (AGS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ageas SA/NV it is €62.66 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of €78.50. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ageas SA/NV stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, AGS trades above its calculated fair value: price €78.50, fair value €62.66, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AGS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€78.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€62.66). For ageas SA/NV the two are €15.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ageas SA/NV worth?
The market values ageas SA/NV at about €15.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is €78.50; our models calculate a fair value of €62.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AGS?
Our models span a range for ageas SA/NV: cautious scenario €52.38, base €62.66, optimistic €85.98 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price €78.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AGS?
ageas SA/NV trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.1 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €62.66 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 8.6. Other multiples: PEG 6.4, P/B 1.6, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 15.0.
What is the PEG ratio of AGS?
The PEG ratio of ageas SA/NV is 6.39 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of ageas SA/NV (AGS)?
Balance-sheet figures for ageas SA/NV (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 19.8%, debt of 0.67 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AGS from its 52-week high?
ageas SA/NV trades at €78.50, at its 52-week high of €78.50 and 47% above the low of €53.55 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €62.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ageas SA/NV?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Allianz SE, Zurich Insurance Group, AXA SA, Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ageas SA/NV stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price €78.50, calculated fair value €62.66 (−20%), Quality Score 54/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AGS calculated?
We run ageas SA/NV through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €62.66, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. ageas SA/NV itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ageas SA/NV (AGS)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was €78.50. Our model-based fair value is €62.66, about 20% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ageas SA/NV right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of ageas SA/NV (AGS) come from?
Earnings per share at ageas SA/NV grew +14.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −3.2 %, EBIT margin +14.5 %, tax rate +2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of ageas SA/NV
How large is the market capitalisation of ageas SA/NV (AGS)?
The market capitalisation of ageas SA/NV is €15.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ageas SA/NV (AGS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ageas SA/NV is 1.46 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ageas SA/NV (AGS)?
Earnings per share at ageas SA/NV are €9.72 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ageas SA/NV (AGS)?
The dividend yield of ageas SA/NV is 4.5% (payout 36.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ageas SA/NV (AGS)?
The net margin of ageas SA/NV is 17.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ageas SA/NV (AGS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ageas SA/NV is 19.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ageas SA/NV (AGS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ageas SA/NV is 1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ageas SA/NV (AGS)?
The operating margin of ageas SA/NV is 6.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ageas SA/NV (AGS)?
Revenue at ageas SA/NV is growing +27.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ageas SA/NV (AGS)?
Earnings per share at ageas SA/NV are growing +17.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ageas SA/NV (AGS) carry?
The net debt of ageas SA/NV is €4.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026