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Arvinas Inc (ARVN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Arvinas Inc stock $6.36, price $6.41, that is 0.8% below the price, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Healthcare US

AI Arvinas Inc logo Thin data Nov 6, 2026

Arvinas Inc

ARVN · US
Fairly valued, in a downtrend

The stock costs about what our calculation considers fair.

Low debt
Ranks above peers (6/9)
Fair value $6.36 · Fairly valued (−0.8%)
Quality 50/100
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +64.5 %/yr in USD)
Insiders sold $518,218 (6M)
Loss-making · -3.5% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Narrow moat 26/100
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$97.07 $6.07 Fair Value $6.36 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $6.07 – $97.07 · fair‑value band $4.20 – $7.95 · the $6.41 price screens above the $6.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.

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Company profile

Arvinas, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapies to degrade disease-causing proteins.

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The company develops proteolysis targeting chimeras (PROTAC) targeted protein degraders that are designed to harness the body's own natural protein disposal system to degrade and remove disease-causing proteins.

It is also developing clinical development programs , including ARV-102, a leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 (LRRK2) protein for the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases, such as Parkinson's disease and progressive supranuclear palsy; ARV-806, a Kirsten rat sarcoma, G12D protein for the treatment of cancers with the G12D mutation, comprising pancreatic, colorectal, and non-small cell lung cancer; ARV-393, a B-cell lymphoma 6 protein for the treatment of relapsed/refractory non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL); ARV-027, a polyglutamine-expanded androgen receptor in skeletal muscle; and vepdegestrant, an estrogen receptor for the treatment of locally advanced or metastatic ER+/HER2- breast cancer.

In addition, the company develops Bavdegalutamide (ARV-110) and Luxdegalutamide (ARV-766), investigational orally bioavailable PROTAC protein degraders for the treatment of men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer.

It has collaborations with Pfizer Inc., Genentech, Inc., F. Hoffman-La Roche Ltd., Carrick Therapeutics Limited, and Bayer AG. The company was founded in 2013 and is based in New Haven, Connecticut.

Stock analysis

Arvinas Inc (ARVN) currently trades at $6.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.36, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 0.8%).

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: $4.20 (bear) to $7.95 (bull), the price of $6.41 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Arvinas Inc reported revenue of $263M in FY2025 versus $46.7M in FY2021, a compound +54.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$80.8M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $421M Small · P/S ratio 1.56 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0700 · Net margin −3.5% · Return on equity −1.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −20.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin −11,820% · Revenue (TTM) $275M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 26 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −1%, ARVN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $4.20 Fair Value $6.36 Bull $7.95
Price $6.41 · Downside -0.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) $4.20 $6.36 $7.95 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $4.20 $6.36 $7.95 54

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 50/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 17
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 69
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 33
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 65
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 4
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 9
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 0
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 45
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 5 officers or directors sold shares worth $518,218 and none bought.

  • SaleAndrew SaikChief Financial Officer3× since Feb 13, 2026: 21,969 shares, avg. $9.93$218,244Jun 24, 2026
  • SaleAngela M CacaceChief Scientific Officer4× since Feb 13, 2026: 20,434 shares, avg. $10.48$214,053Jun 17, 2026
  • SaleRandy TeelPresident and CEO, Director4× since Feb 13, 2026: 21,055 shares, avg. $10.76$226,509May 21, 2026
  • SaleNoah BerkowitzChief Medical Officer3× since Feb 13, 2026: 23,228 shares, avg. $10.74$249,437May 11, 2026
  • SaleDavid K LoomisVP, Chief Accounting Officer3× since Feb 13, 2026: 4,043 shares, avg. $11.04$44,628May 11, 2026
  • BuyBriggs MorrisonDirector20,000 shares at $13.40$268,000Mar 6, 2026
  • SaleJohn G HoustonDirector35,297 shares at $13.21$466,154Feb 27, 2026

Plus 6 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+64.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+50.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−572.7% (2020) → −43.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 558 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/8 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 50 · Above median
Fair Value upside −0.8% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −11.3% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) −3.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −98.8% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.00× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.97× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 1.53× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)32 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 22

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Incyte Corporation INCY $119.65 $199.23 +67% vs ARVN
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $904.35 $1,275 +41% vs ARVN
Genmab A/S GMAB kr 3,527 kr 3,999 +13% vs ARVN
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,516,000 KRW 1,667,600 KRW +10% vs ARVN
WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 HK$47.62 HK$52.38 +10% vs ARVN
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $547.09 $596.75 +9% vs ARVN
argenx SE ARGX $927.21 $908.40 −2% vs ARVN
CSL Limited CSL A$202.04 A$183.04 −9% vs ARVN
Celltrion, Inc 068270 211,000 KRW 74,945 KRW −64% vs ARVN
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $67.30 $19.01 −72% vs ARVN

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Arvinas Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Arvinas Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ARVN

Frequently asked questions

Is Arvinas Inc (ARVN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.36 versus a price of $6.41, about 1% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ARVN?
Our model-based fair value for Arvinas Inc is $6.36 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $6.41.
What is the quality score of ARVN?
Arvinas Inc has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arvinas Inc (ARVN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.36 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.20, optimistic scenario $7.95. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arvinas Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.36, about 1% lower versus a price of $6.41 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $4.20, optimistic scenario $7.95. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arvinas Inc (ARVN)?
Arvinas Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $275M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Arvinas Inc (ARVN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arvinas Inc it is $6.36 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $6.41. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Arvinas Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, ARVN trades above its calculated fair value: price $6.41, fair value $6.36, a gap of about −1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARVN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($6.41); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.36). For Arvinas Inc the two are $0.0500 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arvinas Inc worth?
The market values Arvinas Inc at about $421M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $6.41; our models calculate a fair value of $6.36 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARVN?
Our models span a range for Arvinas Inc: cautious scenario $4.20, base $6.36, optimistic $7.95 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $6.41). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arvinas Inc (ARVN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arvinas Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −1.8%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARVN from its 52-week high?
Arvinas Inc trades at $6.41, about 54% below its 52-week high of $13.83 and at the low of $6.41 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.36 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arvinas Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, argenx SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arvinas Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $6.41, calculated fair value $6.36 (−1%), Quality Score 50/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARVN calculated?
We run Arvinas Inc through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $6.36 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Arvinas Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arvinas Inc (ARVN)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $6.41. Our model-based fair value is $6.36, about 1% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arvinas Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($4.20 to $7.95) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Arvinas Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Arvinas Inc (ARVN)?
The market capitalisation of Arvinas Inc is $421M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arvinas Inc (ARVN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arvinas Inc is 1.56 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arvinas Inc (ARVN)?
Earnings per share at Arvinas Inc are $−0.0700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Arvinas Inc (ARVN)?
The net margin of Arvinas Inc is −3.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arvinas Inc (ARVN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arvinas Inc is −1.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arvinas Inc (ARVN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arvinas Inc is −20.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arvinas Inc (ARVN)?
The operating margin of Arvinas Inc is −11,820% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arvinas Inc (ARVN)?
Revenue at Arvinas Inc is growing −98.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +26.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Arvinas Inc (ARVN) generate?
The free cash flow of Arvinas Inc is −$276M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Arvinas Inc (ARVN) hold?
Arvinas Inc holds more cash than debt, $134M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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