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Arvinas Inc (ARVN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Arvinas Inc $6.46, price $7.83, upside -17.5%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Healthcare · US · ISIN US04335A1051

AI Arvinas Inc logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Arvinas Inc

ARVN · US

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value $6.46 · Overvalued (−18%)
!Quality 54/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +64.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.9% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (9/11)
!Narrow moat 42/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 1 out of 100
!Weak on past: 6 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$107.87 $6.07 Fair Value $6.46 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $6.07 – $107.87 · fair‑value band $4.26 – $8.07 · the $7.83 price screens above the $6.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Arvinas, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapies to degrade disease-causing proteins.

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Arvinas, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapies to degrade disease-causing proteins. The company develops proteolysis targeting chimeras (PROTAC) targeted protein degraders that are designed to harness the body's own natural protein disposal system to degrade and remove disease-causing proteins. It is also developing clinical development programs , including ARV-102, a leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 (LRRK2) protein for the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases, such as Parkinson's disease and progressive supranuclear palsy; ARV-806, a Kirsten rat sarcoma, G12D protein for the treatment of cancers with the G12D mutation, comprising pancreatic, colorectal, and non-small cell lung cancer; ARV-393, a B-cell lymphoma 6 protein for the treatment of relapsed/refractory non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL); ARV-027, a polyglutamine-expanded androgen receptor in skeletal muscle; and vepdegestrant, an estrogen receptor for the treatment of locally advanced or metastatic ER+/HER2- breast cancer. In addition, the company develops Bavdegalutamide (ARV-110) and Luxdegalutamide (ARV-766), investigational orally bioavailable PROTAC protein degraders for the treatment of men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer. It has collaborations with Pfizer Inc., Genentech, Inc., F. Hoffman-La Roche Ltd., Carrick Therapeutics Limited, and Bayer AG. The company was founded in 2013 and is based in New Haven, Connecticut.

Stock analysis

Arvinas Inc (ARVN) currently trades at $7.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.46, implying the stock looks roughly 21.2% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $4.26 (bear) to $8.07 (bull), the price of $7.83 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Arvinas Inc reported revenue of $263M in FY2025 versus $46.7M in FY2021, a compound +54.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$80.8M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $514M · P/E ratio 32.5 · P/S ratio 6.10 · EPS (TTM) $−3.18 · Net margin −30.8% · Return on equity −42.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −20.6% · Operating margin −405%.

What moves the price

Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic.

The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −18%, ARVN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $4.26 Fair Value $6.46 Bull $8.07
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1902 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $3.36 $4.50 $6.72 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $3.36 $4.50 $6.72 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 25

Profitability 17
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 69
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 33
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 65
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 7
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 37
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 25
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 45
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+64.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+50.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−572.7% (2020) → −43.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

ARVN screens 21% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 648 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 50 · Above median
Fair Value upside −24% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 2% · Above median
Return on assets −1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 66% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 10% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.00× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 32.5× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.29× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.77× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)1 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)51 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)6 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 23

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $514.99 $566.49 +10%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $803.90 $1,252 +56%
argenx SE ARGX $963.79 $918.60 −5%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,366,000 KRW 1,502,600 KRW +10%
CSL Limited CSL A$179.24 A$197.16 +10%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $251.65 $218.36 −13%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.52 $24.22 −59%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 177,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
BeOne Medicines AG ONC $368.08 $280.94 −24%
BioNTech SE BNTX $100.87 $63.62 −37%

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Arvinas Inc · Fair Value
$6.46 −21%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Arvinas Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ARVN

Frequently asked questions

Is Arvinas Inc (ARVN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.46 versus a price of $7.83, about −18% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ARVN?
Our model-based fair value for Arvinas Inc is $6.46 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.83.
What is the quality score of ARVN?
Arvinas Inc has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arvinas Inc (ARVN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.46 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.26, optimistic scenario $8.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arvinas Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.46, about −18% upside versus a price of $7.83 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.26, optimistic scenario $8.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arvinas Inc (ARVN)?
Arvinas Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $89.4M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Arvinas Inc (ARVN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arvinas Inc it is $6.46 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $7.83. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arvinas Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ARVN trades above its calculated fair value: price $7.83, fair value $6.46, a gap of about −18% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARVN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.83); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.46). For Arvinas Inc the two are $1.37 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arvinas Inc worth?
The market values Arvinas Inc at about $514M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $7.83; our models calculate a fair value of $6.46 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARVN?
Our models span a range for Arvinas Inc: cautious scenario $4.26, base $6.46, optimistic $8.07 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $7.83). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ARVN?
Arvinas Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $6.46 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 1.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arvinas Inc (ARVN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arvinas Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 1.6%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARVN from its 52-week high?
Arvinas Inc trades at $7.83, about 46% below its 52-week high of $14.51 and 29% above the low of $6.06 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.46 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arvinas Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, Samsung Biologics Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arvinas Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $7.83, calculated fair value $6.46 (−18%), Quality Score 54/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARVN calculated?
We run Arvinas Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.46, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Arvinas Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arvinas Inc (ARVN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $7.83. Our model-based fair value is $6.46, about −18% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arvinas Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($4.26 to $8.07) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Arvinas Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Arvinas Inc (ARVN)?
The market capitalisation of Arvinas Inc is $514M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arvinas Inc (ARVN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arvinas Inc is 6.10 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arvinas Inc (ARVN)?
Earnings per share at Arvinas Inc are $−3.18 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 32.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Arvinas Inc (ARVN)?
The net margin of Arvinas Inc is −30.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arvinas Inc (ARVN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arvinas Inc is −42.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arvinas Inc (ARVN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arvinas Inc is −20.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arvinas Inc (ARVN)?
The operating margin of Arvinas Inc is −405% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arvinas Inc (ARVN)?
Revenue at Arvinas Inc is growing −91.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +26.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Arvinas Inc (ARVN) generate?
The free cash flow of Arvinas Inc is −$276M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Arvinas Inc (ARVN) hold?
Arvinas Inc holds more cash than debt, $134M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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