Aryzta AG (ARYN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Aryzta AG stock CHF 41.76, price CHF 42.45, that is 1.6% below the price, quality 63 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 31.80 – CHF 87.00 · fair‑value band CHF 28.45 – CHF 58.15 · the CHF 42.45 price screens above the CHF 41.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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ARYZTA AG provides products and services for in-store bakery solutions in Europe and internationally. It offers pastries, cookies, buns, breads, rolls, artisan loaves, sweet baked goods, morning goods, and savoury and other products.
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The company is also involved in asset management services; and distribution of food products.
In addition, it serves grocery, convenience, and independent retailers, as well as quick service restaurants (QSR) and other foodservice customers under the Hiestand, Mette Munk, Pre Pain, Cuisine de France, Coup de Pates, La Carte, Oh My Sweetness, and Fornetti brands.
ARYZTA AG was incorporated in 2023 and is headquartered in Schlieren, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Aryzta AG (ARYN) currently trades at CHF 42.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 41.76, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 1.7%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of CHF 85.12 per share, and 17 of the 23 models we run sit above the CHF 42.45 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at CHF 35.99, and 6 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: CHF 28.45 (bear) to CHF 58.15 (bull), the price of CHF 42.45 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Aryzta AG reported revenue of €2.2B in FY2025 versus €1.5B in FY2021, a compound +10.1%/yr. Reported net income was €113M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap CHF 1.1B Small · P/E ratio 10.8 · P/S ratio 0.52 · EPS (TTM) CHF 3.92 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 5.0% · Return on equity 23.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.8% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at −2%, ARYN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearCHF 28.45Fair Value CHF 41.76BullCHF 58.15
Price CHF 42.45 · Downside -1.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (CHF 3.92 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFCHF 60.24CHF 89.52CHF 128.2280
Growth DCFCHF 62.45CHF 89.91CHF 124.8479
Owner EarningsCHF 63.42CHF 93.89CHF 134.1676
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFCHF 60.24CHF 89.52CHF 128.2280
Owner EarningsCHF 63.42CHF 93.89CHF 134.1676
5Y Revenue ExitCHF 45.78CHF 73.09CHF 105.9772
5Y EBITDA ExitCHF 71.64CHF 118.32CHF 169.6375
5Y P/E ExitCHF 47.50CHF 76.11CHF 103.8771
10Y Revenue ExitCHF 49.25CHF 73.95CHF 103.0967
10Y EBITDA ExitCHF 66.42CHF 103.42CHF 147.5068
10Y P/E ExitCHF 51.84CHF 75.92CHF 101.6264
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddCHF 28.37CHF 59.64CHF 75.5266
PEG = 1.0CHF 8.94CHF 12.77CHF 16.6057
EPVCHF 31.15CHF 38.75CHF 45.2974
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMCHF 2.26CHF 3.32CHF 4.4069
DDM Multi-StageCHF 2.26CHF 3.16CHF 4.1567
Multiples
P/E MultipleCHF 65.71CHF 87.61CHF 109.5163
P/S MultipleCHF 53.19CHF 70.92CHF 88.6558
EV/EBITCHF 57.88CHF 85.12CHF 112.3565
EV/EBITDACHF 86.98CHF 123.91CHF 160.8467
EV/RevenueCHF 34.49CHF 59.49CHF 84.4852
Growth DCF
Growth DCFCHF 62.45CHF 89.91CHF 124.8479
Rev-Margin DCFCHF 45.78CHF 74.34CHF 104.4872
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeCHF 24.52CHF 29.78CHF 42.2675
ROIC CompounderCHF 32.19CHF 42.20CHF 52.8072
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/ECHF 48.24CHF 68.91CHF 89.5867
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a year distorted by one-off effects.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.71/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +19.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+18.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%
Per share before 2018divided by the spin-off factor 1.0125
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−7% → 8%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 25.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 62% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.2%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −6.2% a year for the price and −1.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (89 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 625 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−0.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)23.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)5.0% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)6.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−2.1% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.99× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)10.8× · Cheaper than median
P/B2.07× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aryzta AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ARYN
Frequently asked questions
Is Aryzta AG (ARYN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 41.76 versus a price of CHF 42.45, about 2% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ARYN?
Our model-based fair value for Aryzta AG is CHF 41.76 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 42.45.
What is the quality score of ARYN?
Aryzta AG has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aryzta AG (ARYN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 41.76 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 28.45, optimistic scenario CHF 58.15. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aryzta AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 41.76, about 2% lower versus a price of CHF 42.45 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario CHF 28.45, optimistic scenario CHF 58.15. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aryzta AG (ARYN)?
Aryzta AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €2.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Aryzta AG pay a dividend?
Aryzta AG currently shows a dividend yield of 0.64% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Aryzta AG (ARYN)?
Aryzta AG has a dividend yield of 0.6%.
What growth is priced into Aryzta AG (ARYN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aryzta AG would have to grow free cash flow by -4.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.0 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ARYN use?
Our models discount Aryzta AG at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.38, country premium for Switzerland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aryzta AG that is -4.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aryzta AG (ARYN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aryzta AG grew +6.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -4.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aryzta AG (ARYN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aryzta AG (-4.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aryzta AG (ARYN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.07 %: that much free cash flow Aryzta AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aryzta AG (ARYN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aryzta AG it is CHF 41.76 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of CHF 42.45. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Aryzta AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, ARYN trades above its calculated fair value: price CHF 42.45, fair value CHF 41.76, a gap of about −2% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARYN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (CHF 42.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (CHF 41.76). For Aryzta AG the two are CHF 0.6940 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aryzta AG worth?
The market values Aryzta AG at about CHF 1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is CHF 42.45; our models calculate a fair value of CHF 41.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARYN?
Our models span a range for Aryzta AG: cautious scenario CHF 28.45, base CHF 41.76, optimistic CHF 58.15 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price CHF 42.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ARYN?
Aryzta AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.8 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of CHF 41.76 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 2.1, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 7.5.
What is the PEG ratio of ARYN?
The PEG ratio of Aryzta AG is 1.09 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aryzta AG (ARYN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aryzta AG (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 23.4%, debt of 0.99 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARYN from its 52-week high?
Aryzta AG trades at CHF 42.45, about 34% below its 52-week high of CHF 64.00 and 16% above the low of CHF 36.45 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of CHF 41.76 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aryzta AG?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aryzta AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price CHF 42.45, calculated fair value CHF 41.76 (−2%), Quality Score 63/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARYN calculated?
We run Aryzta AG through 23 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of CHF 41.76 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Aryzta AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aryzta AG (ARYN)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was CHF 42.45. Our model-based fair value is CHF 41.76, about 2% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aryzta AG right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (CHF 28.45 to CHF 58.15) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Aryzta AG (ARYN) come from?
Earnings per share at Aryzta AG grew −23.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −27.5 %, EBIT margin +4.0 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Aryzta AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Aryzta AG (ARYN)?
The market capitalisation of Aryzta AG is CHF 1.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aryzta AG (ARYN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aryzta AG is 0.52 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aryzta AG (ARYN)?
Earnings per share at Aryzta AG are CHF 3.92 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aryzta AG (ARYN)?
The dividend yield of Aryzta AG is 0.6% (payout 7.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aryzta AG (ARYN)?
The net margin of Aryzta AG is 5.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aryzta AG (ARYN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aryzta AG is 23.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aryzta AG (ARYN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aryzta AG is 5.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aryzta AG (ARYN)?
The operating margin of Aryzta AG is 6.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aryzta AG (ARYN)?
Revenue at Aryzta AG is growing −2.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aryzta AG (ARYN)?
Earnings per share at Aryzta AG are growing −1.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Aryzta AG (ARYN) carry?
The net debt of Aryzta AG is €645M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026