Aryzta AG (ARYN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Aryzta AG CHF 38.96, price CHF 37.00, upside +5.3%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 31.80 – CHF 87.00 · fair‑value band CHF 26.54 – CHF 54.24 · the CHF 37.00 price screens below the CHF 38.96 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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ARYZTA AG provides products and services for in-store bakery solutions in Europe and internationally. It offers pastries, cookies, buns, breads, rolls, artisan loaves, sweet baked goods, morning goods, and savoury and other products. The company is also involved in asset management services; and distribution of food products.
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ARYZTA AG provides products and services for in-store bakery solutions in Europe and internationally. It offers pastries, cookies, buns, breads, rolls, artisan loaves, sweet baked goods, morning goods, and savoury and other products. The company is also involved in asset management services; and distribution of food products. In addition, it serves grocery, convenience, and independent retailers, as well as quick service restaurants (QSR) and other foodservice customers under the Hiestand, Mette Munk, Pre Pain, Cuisine de France, Coup de Pates, La Carte, Oh My Sweetness, and Fornetti brands. ARYZTA AG was incorporated in 2023 and is headquartered in Schlieren, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Aryzta AG (ARYN) currently trades at CHF 37.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 38.96, implying the stock looks roughly 5.0% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of CHF 77.41 per share, and 18 of the 25 models we run sit above the CHF 37.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at CHF 14.92, and 7 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: CHF 26.54 (bear) to CHF 54.24 (bull), the price of CHF 37.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Aryzta AG reported revenue of €2.2B in FY2025 versus €1.5B in FY2021, a compound +10.1%/yr. Reported net income was €113M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap CHF 1.4B · P/E ratio 9.5 · P/S ratio 0.48 · EPS (TTM) CHF 3.91 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 5.1% · Return on equity 22.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at 5%, ARYN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear CHF 26.54Fair Value CHF 38.96Bull CHF 54.24
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (CHF 3.91 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.71/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −5.2% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +19.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+18.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−7% → 8%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 25.5%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 62% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.2% a year for the price and +0.0% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 667 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside+5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)22% · Top 25%
Return on assets6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.99× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)9.5× · Cheapest 25%
P/B3.07× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aryzta AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ARYN
Frequently asked questions
Is Aryzta AG (ARYN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 38.96 versus a price of CHF 37.00, about +5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ARYN?
Our model-based fair value for Aryzta AG is CHF 38.96 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 37.00.
What is the quality score of ARYN?
Aryzta AG has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aryzta AG (ARYN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 38.96 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 26.54, optimistic scenario CHF 54.24. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aryzta AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 38.96, about +5% upside versus a price of CHF 37.00 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario CHF 26.54, optimistic scenario CHF 54.24. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aryzta AG (ARYN)?
Aryzta AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €2.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Aryzta AG pay a dividend?
Aryzta AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.50% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Aryzta AG (ARYN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aryzta AG would have to grow free cash flow by -6.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ARYN use?
Our models discount Aryzta AG at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.36, country premium for Switzerland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aryzta AG that is -6.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aryzta AG (ARYN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aryzta AG grew +6.0 % a year. The price currently implies -6.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aryzta AG (ARYN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aryzta AG (-6.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aryzta AG (ARYN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 17.76 %: that much free cash flow Aryzta AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aryzta AG (ARYN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aryzta AG it is CHF 38.96 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of CHF 37.00. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aryzta AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ARYN trades below its calculated fair value: price CHF 37.00, fair value CHF 38.96, a gap of about +5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARYN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (CHF 37.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (CHF 38.96). For Aryzta AG the two are CHF 1.96 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aryzta AG worth?
The market values Aryzta AG at about CHF 1.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is CHF 37.00; our models calculate a fair value of CHF 38.96 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARYN?
Our models span a range for Aryzta AG: cautious scenario CHF 26.54, base CHF 38.96, optimistic CHF 54.24 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price CHF 37.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ARYN?
Aryzta AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of CHF 38.96 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 3.1, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 8.6.
What is the PEG ratio of ARYN?
The PEG ratio of Aryzta AG is 1.09 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aryzta AG (ARYN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aryzta AG (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 22.3%, debt of 0.99 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARYN from its 52-week high?
Aryzta AG trades at CHF 37.00, about 47% below its 52-week high of CHF 70.30 and 2% above the low of CHF 36.45 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of CHF 38.96 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aryzta AG?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, The Kraft Heinz Company, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aryzta AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price CHF 37.00, calculated fair value CHF 38.96 (+5%), Quality Score 62/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARYN calculated?
We run Aryzta AG through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of CHF 38.96, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Aryzta AG currently trades 5 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aryzta AG (ARYN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was CHF 37.00. Our model-based fair value is CHF 38.96, about +5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aryzta AG right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (CHF 26.54 to CHF 54.24) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Aryzta AG (ARYN) come from?
Earnings per share at Aryzta AG grew −23.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −27.5 %, EBIT margin +4.0 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Aryzta AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Aryzta AG (ARYN)?
The market capitalisation of Aryzta AG is CHF 1.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aryzta AG (ARYN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aryzta AG is 0.48 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aryzta AG (ARYN)?
Earnings per share at Aryzta AG are CHF 3.91 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aryzta AG (ARYN)?
The dividend yield of Aryzta AG is 0.5% (payout 4.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aryzta AG (ARYN)?
The net margin of Aryzta AG is 5.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aryzta AG (ARYN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aryzta AG is 22.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aryzta AG (ARYN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aryzta AG is 5.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aryzta AG (ARYN)?
The operating margin of Aryzta AG is 8.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aryzta AG (ARYN)?
Revenue at Aryzta AG is growing −0.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aryzta AG (ARYN)?
Earnings per share at Aryzta AG are growing +0.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Aryzta AG (ARYN) carry?
The net debt of Aryzta AG is €645M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026