ARYZTA AG (ARYN) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · CH · Market cap CHF 1.4B
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from CHF 75.06 to CHF 69.37 (−7.6%) since Jul 14, 2026. Share price −6.9% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 32% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (CHF 42.88 to CHF 100.27) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 31.80 – CHF 87.00 · fair‑value band CHF 42.88 – CHF 100.27 · the CHF 52.70 price screens below the CHF 69.37 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
ARYZTA AG (ARYN) currently trades at CHF 52.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 69.37, implying the stock looks roughly 31.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, ARYZTA AG generated revenue of CHF 2.2B at a net margin of 5.1%. Revenue declined 0.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.3%. Net debt stands at CHF 645M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from CHF 42.88 (bear case) to CHF 100.27 (bull case); at CHF 52.70, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -3% fair-value upside, at 32%, ARYN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (CHF 77.41) versus Dividend Discount (CHF 2.98). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
ARYZTA AG provides products and services for in-store bakery solutions in Europe and internationally. It offers pastries, cookies, buns, breads, rolls, artisan loaves, sweet baked goods, morning goods, and savoury and other products. The company is also involved in asset management services; and distribution of food products.
Full company description
ARYZTA AG provides products and services for in-store bakery solutions in Europe and internationally. It offers pastries, cookies, buns, breads, rolls, artisan loaves, sweet baked goods, morning goods, and savoury and other products. The company is also involved in asset management services; and distribution of food products. In addition, it serves grocery, convenience, and independent retailers, as well as quick service restaurants (QSR) and other foodservice customers under the Hiestand, Mette Munk, Pre Pain, Cuisine de France, Coup de Pates, La Carte, Oh My Sweetness, and Fornetti brands. ARYZTA AG was incorporated in 2023 and is headquartered in Schlieren, Switzerland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ARYZTA AG reported revenue of CHF 2.2B in FY2025 versus CHF 1.5B in FY2021, a compound +10.1%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 113M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Packaged Foods · 653 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,427 | ₹362.37 | -75% |
| Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA | ₹5,413 | ₹1,870 | -65% |
| Tata Consumer Products Limited TATACONSUM | ₹1,089 | ₹327.27 | -70% |
| PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP | 6,650 IDR | 15,757 IDR | +137% |
| Samyang Foods Co 003230 | 1,139,000 KRW | 1,010,543 KRW | -11% |
| Patanjali Foods Limited PATANJALI | ₹413.80 | ₹157.04 | -62% |
| Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company VNM | 58,500 VND | 68,259 VND | +17% |
| PT Mayora Indah Tbk, MYOR | 1,750 IDR | 2,699 IDR | +54% |
| PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk CMRY | 4,490 IDR | 4,355 IDR | -3% |
| Nongshim Co 004370 | 348,500 KRW | 530,619 KRW | +52% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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