Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA stock $16.59, price $23.44, that is 29.2% below the price, quality 67 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.05 – $29.17 · fair‑value band $13.44 – $24.22 · the $23.44 price screens above the $16.59 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial services in Spain, Mexico, Turkey, South America, Europe, the United States, and Asia. The company offers traditional retail, wholesale, investment, and transaction banking.
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It also engages in financial, insurance, asset management, and capital markets businesses, as well as digital banking. The company was formerly known as Banco Bilbao Vizcaya, S.A. and changed its name to Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. in January 2000.
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. was founded in 1857 and is headquartered in Bilbao, Spain.
Stock analysis
Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) currently trades at $23.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.59, 29.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $16.60 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $23.44 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $7.03, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $13.44 (bear) to $24.22 (bull), the price of $23.44 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR reported revenue of €36.9B in FY2025 versus €31.3B in FY2021, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was €10.5B in FY2025, compounding +22.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $135B Large · P/E ratio 10.3 · P/S ratio 3.55 · EPS (TTM) $2.28 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 32.6% · Return on equity 18.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 73 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −29%, BBVA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$13.44Fair Value $16.59Bull$24.22
Price $23.44 · Downside -29.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.35 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.77/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+19.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.27.2% vs 14.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 44%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.4% a year for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: BBVA benefits from leading positions in Spain and Mexico with a diversified model and strong cost control that support resilient profitability, yet lacks unique differentiation amid rising digital disruption and limited pricing freedom.
Main risk: Neobanks such as Revolut and Nubank could capture more retail customers and payment volumes in Spain, Mexico and other markets through superior mobile UX and lower fees, squeezing BBVA's margins on deposits and transactions.
Bull case: BBVA could leverage its AI agents and hybrid model to match fintech agility while retaining full-service banking advantages and deeper customer relationships across its multi-country footprint.
Bear case: Persistent fintech gains in key segments combined with stricter regulatory constraints could gradually commoditise parts of BBVA's retail offering and raise operating costs across its markets.
BBVA draws on leading positions in Spain and Mexico together with a diversified business model to deliver resilient profitability across interest rate cycles. Cost control supports efficiency levels that compare favorably with European peers. Our models currently see it as overvalued. Will the track record of strong recurring income generation continue to offset volatility elsewhere or will pressures in those markets weigh more heavily?
Compare Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Diversified · 46 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−29.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)18.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets1.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)32.6% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)56.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)20.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.43× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)10.3× · Cheaper than median
P/B2.11× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)3.55× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow9.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA6.1× · Cheaper than median
PEG0.66× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 36
PAST (return on equity)76· sector 47
HEALTH (low debt)29· sector 40
DIVIDEND (yield)57· sector 62
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BBVA
Frequently asked questions
Is Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.59 versus a price of $23.44, about 29% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BBVA?
Our model-based fair value for Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR is $16.59 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $23.44.
What is the quality score of BBVA?
Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA (BBVA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $16.59 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.44, optimistic scenario $24.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $16.59, about 29% lower versus a price of $23.44 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $13.44, optimistic scenario $24.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA (BBVA)?
Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €34.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR pay a dividend?
Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 2.86% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA (BBVA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.2 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BBVA use?
Our models discount Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.90, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR grew +4.2 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA (BBVA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.86 %: that much free cash flow Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA (BBVA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR it is $16.59 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of $23.44. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, BBVA trades above its calculated fair value: price $23.44, fair value $16.59, a gap of about −29% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BBVA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($23.44); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($16.59). For Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR the two are $6.85 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR worth?
The market values Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR at about $135B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is $23.44; our models calculate a fair value of $16.59 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BBVA?
Our models span a range for Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR: cautious scenario $13.44, base $16.59, optimistic $24.22 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price $23.44). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BBVA?
Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.3 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $16.59 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 10.1 (reported for FY2025: 11.9). Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 2.1, P/S 3.5, EV/EBITDA 6.1.
What is the PEG ratio of BBVA?
The PEG ratio of Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR is 0.66 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA (BBVA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 18.9%, debt of 1.43 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BBVA from its 52-week high?
Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR trades at $23.44, about 20% below its 52-week high of $29.17 and 26% above the low of $18.63 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $16.59 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, China Construction Bank Corporation, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, Agricultural Bank of China Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price $23.44, calculated fair value $16.59 (−29%), Quality Score 67/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BBVA calculated?
We run Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $16.59, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA (BBVA)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was $23.44. Our model-based fair value is $16.59, about 29% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($13.44 to $24.22) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) come from?
Earnings per share at Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR grew +15.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.5 %, EBIT margin +9.8 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA (BBVA)?
The market capitalisation of Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR is $135B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA (BBVA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR is 3.55 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA (BBVA)?
Earnings per share at Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR are $2.28 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA (BBVA)?
The dividend yield of Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR is 2.9% (payout 26.6%, on adjusted earnings, reported 31.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA (BBVA)?
The net margin of Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR is 32.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA (BBVA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR is 18.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA (BBVA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR is 1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA (BBVA)?
The operating margin of Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR is 56.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA (BBVA)?
Revenue at Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR is growing +20.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA (BBVA)?
Earnings per share at Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR are growing +15.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) hold?
Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR holds more cash than debt, €12.1B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 1, 2026