BioNTech SE (BNTX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of BioNTech SE stock $48.45, price $90.70, that is 46.6% below the price, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 7 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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HealthcareUS · Based in Germany · ISIN US09075V1026
BSThin dataNov 4, 2026
BioNTech SE
BNTX · US
Solid,but very expensive
Our calculation puts a fair price 47% below what the stock costs today.
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers(7/11)
Quality 51/100
Insiders sold $84.2M (6M)
Revenue last quarter 60% below a year ago.
Fair value $48.45 · Strongly overvalued (−46.6%)
Weak Growth(revenue 3y −45.8 %/yr in USD)
Loss-making · -63.6% net margin (TTM)
Narrow moat27/100
Downbeat coverage
Thin data
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Price drop: Head and neck cancer study miss and models seeing the stock as overvalued🚩Patent lawsuits over mRNA-LNP tech🚩Rivals with improved mRNA platforms
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $78.36 – $441.38 · fair‑value band $44.03 – $54.32 · the $90.70 price screens above the $48.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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BioNTech SE, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development and commercialization of immunotherapies in Germany. The company offers BNT162, an mRNA vaccine for the treatment of SARS-CoV-2 virus.
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It also develops oncology drugs under Phase III clinical trial, including Gotistobart for metastatic non-small cell lung cancer, Pumitamig for small cell lung cancer and advanced/metastatic triple-negative breast cancer, and Trastuzumab pamirtecan for metastatic breast cancer and epirubicin and cyclophosphamide; and drugs under Phase 2/3 clinical trial, such as BNT113 for human papillomavirus and head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, as well as Pumitamig for metastatic colorectal and non-small cell lung cancer.
In addition, the company engages in the development of oncology drugs under Phase II clinical trial comprising BNT116 for advance non-small cell lung cancer, BNT326/YL202 for multiple solid tumors and advanced/metastatic breast cancer, Autogene cevumeran for advance colorectal cancer, and Gotistobart for platinum-resistant ovarian cancer, as well as Pumitamig for glioblastoma, hepatocellular carcinoma, malignant pleural mesothelioma, neuroendocrine neoplasms, and metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.
Further, it develops BNT166 which is Phase II clinical trial for mpox virus; and infectious diseases drugs under Phase 1/2 clinical trial, which include BNT162 + BNT161 for SARS-CoV-2 and influenza, BNT164 for tuberculosis, BNT165 for malaria, and BNT166 for mpox.
The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Mainz, Germany.
Stock analysis
BioNTech SE (BNTX) currently trades at $90.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $48.45, 47% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $59.90 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the $90.70 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $48.33, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $44.03 (bear) to $54.32 (bull), the price of $90.70 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
BioNTech SE reported revenue of €2.8B in FY2025 versus €19.0B in FY2021, a compound −38.3%/yr. Reported net income was −€1.1B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $23.0B Large · P/S ratio 8.24 · EPS (TTM) $−7.77 · Net margin −63.6% · Return on equity −9.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 29.0% · Operating margin −807% · Revenue (TTM) $2.6B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −47%, BNTX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$44.03Fair Value $48.45Bull$54.32
Price $90.70 · Downside -46.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $84.2M and none bought.
SaleUgur SahinChief Executive Officer, 10% owner14× since Sep 3, 2026: 858,209 shares, avg. $98.15$84.2MOct 9, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleSierk PoettingChief Operating Officer50,000 shares at $110.56$5.5MApr 22, 202610b5-1 plan
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−45.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+41.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+60.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−17.1% (2020) → −22.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−7.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.9% a year for the price and −9.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: Moderate mRNA platform potential forms the main strength while sustained net losses and post-pandemic revenue decline form the main weakness limiting durable advantages.
Main risk: Ongoing infringement suits from Moderna, Arbutus and others over lipid nanoparticle and mRNA patents could force royalty payments or injunctions that raise costs or limit sales of Comirnaty and future oncology candidates.
Bull case: BioNTech could leverage its AI tools and CureVac acquisition to accelerate differentiated oncology candidates and secure new partnerships that reduce reliance on any single platform or partner.
Bear case: Repeated patent losses or successful rival platforms could restrict key products, slow oncology progress and leave the company dependent on a shrinking COVID franchise without offsetting revenue.
BioNTech pushes ahead with oncology trials such as pumitamig combinations in lung and breast cancer. A recent head and neck cancer study missed its progression-free survival target though overall survival data are still awaited. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will pipeline breadth overcome these clinical misses or will repeated setbacks keep weighing on the transition from COVID vaccines?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 559 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Above median
Fair Value upside−46.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−5.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)−63.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−59.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.20× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)8.67× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow85.2× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.05× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 22
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BioNTech SE Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BNTX
Frequently asked questions
Is BioNTech SE (BNTX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $48.45 versus a price of $90.70, about 47% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BNTX?
Our model-based fair value for BioNTech SE is $48.45 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $90.70.
What is the quality score of BNTX?
BioNTech SE has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BioNTech SE (BNTX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $48.45 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $44.03, optimistic scenario $54.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BioNTech SE stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $48.45, about 47% lower versus a price of $90.70 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $44.03, optimistic scenario $54.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BioNTech SE (BNTX)?
BioNTech SE reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into BioNTech SE (BNTX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, BioNTech SE would have to grow free cash flow by +18.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +41.7 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BNTX use?
Our models discount BioNTech SE at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.33, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For BioNTech SE that is +18.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has BioNTech SE (BNTX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at BioNTech SE grew +41.7 % a year. The price currently implies +18.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of BioNTech SE (BNTX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into BioNTech SE (+18.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of BioNTech SE (BNTX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.17 %: that much free cash flow BioNTech SE produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of BioNTech SE (BNTX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BioNTech SE it is $48.45 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $90.70. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BioNTech SE stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, BNTX trades above its calculated fair value: price $90.70, fair value $48.45, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BNTX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($90.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($48.45). For BioNTech SE the two are $42.25 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BioNTech SE worth?
The market values BioNTech SE at about $23.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $90.70; our models calculate a fair value of $48.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BNTX?
Our models span a range for BioNTech SE: cautious scenario $44.03, base $48.45, optimistic $54.32 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $90.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of BNTX?
The PEG ratio of BioNTech SE is 0.05 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of BioNTech SE (BNTX)?
Balance-sheet figures for BioNTech SE (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity −9.3%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BNTX from its 52-week high?
BioNTech SE trades at $90.70, about 24% below its 52-week high of $119.34 and 8% above the low of $83.89 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $48.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BioNTech SE?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, Samsung Biologics Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BioNTech SE stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $90.70, calculated fair value $48.45 (−47%), Quality Score 51/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BNTX calculated?
We run BioNTech SE through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $48.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. BioNTech SE itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BioNTech SE (BNTX)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $90.70. Our model-based fair value is $48.45, about 47% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BioNTech SE right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($54.32). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of BioNTech SE
How large is the market capitalisation of BioNTech SE (BNTX)?
The market capitalisation of BioNTech SE is $23.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BioNTech SE (BNTX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BioNTech SE is 8.24 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BioNTech SE (BNTX)?
Earnings per share at BioNTech SE are $−7.77. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of BioNTech SE (BNTX)?
The net margin of BioNTech SE is −63.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BioNTech SE (BNTX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BioNTech SE is −9.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BioNTech SE (BNTX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BioNTech SE is 29.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BioNTech SE (BNTX)?
The operating margin of BioNTech SE is −807% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BioNTech SE (BNTX)?
Revenue at BioNTech SE is growing −59.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −45.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BioNTech SE (BNTX)?
Earnings per share at BioNTech SE are growing −43.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does BioNTech SE (BNTX) hold?
BioNTech SE holds more cash than debt, $7.4B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 4, 2026