Carlyle Group Inc (CG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Carlyle Group Inc stock $27.99, price $39.96, that is 30.0% below the price, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Our calculation puts a fair price 30% below what the stock costs today.
Quality 62/100
Solidly profitable · 13.0% net margin (TTM)
Generates free cash flow
3.5% dividend yield · Sustainable
Positive coverage
Broad data
Mixed Growth(revenue 5y +18.1 %/yr in USD)
Moderate moat57/100 · thin data
Insiders sold $17.1M (6M)
Revenue last quarter 33% below a year ago.
Fair value $27.99 · Overvalued (−30.0%)
Trails peers(4/15)
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Lukoil asset agreement expired after regulatory approvals failed🚩Peers with insurance platforms could limit stable capital🚩NAIC review could curb insurance capital inflows
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $22.39 – $67.95 · fair‑value band $13.72 – $38.42 · the $39.96 price screens above the $27.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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The Carlyle Group Inc. is an investment firm specializing in direct and fund of fund investments.
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Within direct investments, it specializes in management-led/ Leveraged buyouts, privatizations, divestitures, strategic minority equity investments, structured credit, global distressed and corporate opportunities, small and middle market, equity private placements, consolidations and buildups, senior debt, mezzanine and leveraged finance, and venture and growth capital financings, seed/startup, early venture, emerging growth, turnaround, mid venture, late venture, PIPES, recapitalization.
The firm invests across four segments which include Corporate Private Equity, Real Assets, Global Market Strategies, and Solutions.
The firm typically invests in industrial, agribusiness, ecological sector, fintech, airports, parking, Plastics, Rubber, diversified natural resources, minerals, farming, aerospace, defense, automotive, consumer, retail, industrial, infrastructure, energy, power, healthcare, software, software enabled services, semiconductors, communications infrastructure, financial technology, utilities, gaming, systems and related supply chain, electronic systems, systems, oil and gas, processing facilities, power generation assets, technology, systems, real estate, financial services, transportation, business services, telecommunications, media, and logistics sectors.
Within the industrial sector, the firm invests in manufacturing, building products, packaging, chemicals, metals and mining, forestry and paper products, and industrial consumables and services.
In consumer and retail sectors, it invests in food and beverage, retail, restaurants, consumer products, domestic consumption, consumer services, personal care products, direct marketing, and education.
Within aerospace, defense, business services, and government services sectors, it seeks to invest in defense electronics, manufacturing and services, government contracting and services, information technology, distribution companies, supply chains, aftermarket
Stock analysis
Carlyle Group Inc (CG) currently trades at $39.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $27.99, 30% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $22.76 per share, and 1 of the 13 models we run sit above the $39.96 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9.88, and 12 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $13.72 (bear) to $38.42 (bull), the price of $39.96 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Carlyle Group Inc reported revenue of $4.9B in FY2025 versus $5.8B in FY2021, a compound −4.2%/yr. Reported net income was $809M in FY2025, compounding −27.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $14.7B Large · P/E ratio 41.2 · P/S ratio 5.25 · EPS (TTM) $0.9700 · Dividend yield 3.5% · Net margin 13.0% · Return on equity 7.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 57 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −30%, CG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$13.72Fair Value $27.99Bull$38.42
Price $39.96 · Downside -30.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $17.1M and none bought.
SaleDavid M. RubensteinDirector3× since Dec 10, 2025: 1,525,000 shares, avg. $49.69$75.8MSep 11, 2026
Plus 25 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.7% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+0.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 16.1% / 13.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 26%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.6% a year for the price and +10.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Moderate moat in asset management forms the main strength, while high total debt relative to equity remains the central weakness.
Main risk: Rivals such as Apollo with Athene and KKR with Global Atlantic could secure more permanent capital from insurers, limiting Carlyle's access to stable mandates and pressuring fee income in credit and alternatives.
Bull case: By deepening partnerships such as Fortitude Re and developing tailored insurance-linked products Carlyle could attract more permanent capital and expand its credit platform amid peer competition.
Bear case: If peers dominate insurance capital channels Carlyle might experience slower AUM growth and sustained pressure on margins in its alternative strategies over the coming years.
Carlyle let its agreement for Lukoil international assets expire after regulatory approvals failed to come through. In asset management, large cross-border deals frequently face such hurdles from sanctions and oversight. Does this reflect the inherent unpredictability of closing complex transactions, or does it encourage a sharper focus on opportunities with clearer paths to completion?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 593 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside−30.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.8% · Above median
Return on assets2.8% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)13.0% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)26.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−32.9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.42× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)41.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.55× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)5.25× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow10.8× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA15.8× · Pricier than median
PEG0.65× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 59
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 39
PAST (return on equity)31· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)29· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)70· sector 80
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Carlyle Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CG
Frequently asked questions
Is Carlyle Group Inc (CG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $27.99 versus a price of $39.96, about 30% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CG?
Our model-based fair value for Carlyle Group Inc is $27.99 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $39.96.
What is the quality score of CG?
Carlyle Group Inc has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Carlyle Group Inc (CG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $27.99 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.72, optimistic scenario $38.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Carlyle Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $27.99, about 30% lower versus a price of $39.96 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $13.72, optimistic scenario $38.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Carlyle Group Inc (CG)?
Carlyle Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Carlyle Group Inc pay a dividend?
Carlyle Group Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 3.50% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Carlyle Group Inc (CG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Carlyle Group Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +7.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.1 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CG use?
Our models discount Carlyle Group Inc at 11.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.87, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Carlyle Group Inc that is +7.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Carlyle Group Inc (CG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Carlyle Group Inc grew +18.1 % a year. The price currently implies +7.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Carlyle Group Inc (CG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Carlyle Group Inc (+7.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Carlyle Group Inc (CG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.29 %: that much free cash flow Carlyle Group Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Carlyle Group Inc (CG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Carlyle Group Inc it is $27.99 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of $39.96. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Carlyle Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, CG trades above its calculated fair value: price $39.96, fair value $27.99, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($39.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($27.99). For Carlyle Group Inc the two are $11.97 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Carlyle Group Inc worth?
The market values Carlyle Group Inc at about $14.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is $39.96; our models calculate a fair value of $27.99 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CG?
Our models span a range for Carlyle Group Inc: cautious scenario $13.72, base $27.99, optimistic $38.42 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price $39.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CG?
Carlyle Group Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 41.2 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $27.99 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 15.5 (reported for FY2025: 18.3). Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 2.6, P/S 5.2, EV/EBITDA 15.8.
What is the PEG ratio of CG?
The PEG ratio of Carlyle Group Inc is 0.65 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Carlyle Group Inc (CG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Carlyle Group Inc (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 7.8%, debt of 1.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CG from its 52-week high?
Carlyle Group Inc trades at $39.96, about 39% below its 52-week high of $65.22 and 12% above the low of $35.77 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $27.99 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Carlyle Group Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Corporation, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Carlyle Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price $39.96, calculated fair value $27.99 (−30%), Quality Score 62/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CG calculated?
We run Carlyle Group Inc through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $27.99, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Carlyle Group Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Carlyle Group Inc (CG)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $39.96. Our model-based fair value is $27.99, about 30% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Carlyle Group Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($38.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($13.72 to $38.42). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Carlyle Group Inc (CG) come from?
Earnings per share at Carlyle Group Inc grew +27.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −2.5 %, EBIT margin +5.6 %, tax rate +5.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +17.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Carlyle Group Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Carlyle Group Inc (CG)?
The market capitalisation of Carlyle Group Inc is $14.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Carlyle Group Inc (CG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Carlyle Group Inc is 5.25 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Carlyle Group Inc (CG)?
Earnings per share at Carlyle Group Inc are $0.9700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 41.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Carlyle Group Inc (CG)?
The dividend yield of Carlyle Group Inc is 3.5% (payout 122%, on adjusted earnings, reported 144%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Carlyle Group Inc (CG)?
The net margin of Carlyle Group Inc is 13.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Carlyle Group Inc (CG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Carlyle Group Inc is 7.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Carlyle Group Inc (CG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Carlyle Group Inc is 6.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Carlyle Group Inc (CG)?
The operating margin of Carlyle Group Inc is 26.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Carlyle Group Inc (CG)?
Revenue at Carlyle Group Inc is growing −32.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Carlyle Group Inc (CG)?
Earnings per share at Carlyle Group Inc are growing −57.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Carlyle Group Inc (CG) carry?
The net debt of Carlyle Group Inc is $10.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 1, 2026