The Carlyle Group (CG) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · US · Market cap $16.8B

Below-average quality, and screening another 54% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($28.01). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $22.39 – $67.95 · fair‑value band $16.81 – $28.01 · the $48.88 price screens above the $22.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

The Carlyle Group (CG) currently trades at $48.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.41, implying the stock looks roughly 54.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, The Carlyle Group generated revenue of $3.2B at a net margin of 16.8%. It earns a return on equity of 9.4%. Net debt stands at $10.7B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 30.5. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $16.81 (bear case) to $28.01 (bull case); at $48.88, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -51% fair-value upside, at -54%, CG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($55.40) versus Asset-Based ($10.72). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

The Carlyle Group Inc. is an investment firm specializing in direct and fund of fund investments. Within direct investments, it specializes in management-led/ Leveraged buyouts, privatizations, divestitures, strategic minority equity investments, structured credit, global distressed and corporate opportunities, small and middle market, equity private …

Full company description

The Carlyle Group Inc. is an investment firm specializing in direct and fund of fund investments. Within direct investments, it specializes in management-led/ Leveraged buyouts, privatizations, divestitures, strategic minority equity investments, structured credit, global distressed and corporate opportunities, small and middle market, equity private placements, consolidations and buildups, senior debt, mezzanine and leveraged finance, and venture and growth capital financings, seed/startup, early venture, emerging growth, turnaround, mid venture, late venture, PIPES, recapitalization. The firm invests across four segments which include Corporate Private Equity, Real Assets, Global Market Strategies, and Solutions. The firm typically invests in industrial, agribusiness, ecological sector, fintech, airports, parking, Plastics, Rubber, diversified natural resources, minerals, farming, aerospace, defense, automotive, consumer, retail, industrial, infrastructure, energy, power, healthcare, software, software enabled services, semiconductors, communications infrastructure, financial technology, utilities, gaming, systems and related supply chain, electronic systems, systems, oil and gas, processing facilities, power generation assets, technology, systems, real estate, financial services, transportation, business services, telecommunications, media, and logistics sectors. Within the industrial sector, the firm invests in manufacturing, building products, packaging, chemicals, metals and mining, forestry and paper products, and industrial consumables and services. In consumer and retail sectors, it invests in food and beverage, retail, restaurants, consumer products, domestic consumption, consumer services, personal care products, direct marketing, and education. Within aerospace, defense, business services, and government services sectors, it seeks to invest in defense electronics, manufacturing and services, government contracting and services, information technology, distribution companies, supply chains, aftermarket

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

The Carlyle Group reported revenue of $4.9B in FY2025 versus $5.8B in FY2021, a compound −4.2%/yr. Reported net income was $809M in FY2025, compounding −27.8%/yr from FY2021.

CG screens 54% overvalued. Compare with Fondul Proprietatea SA →

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

• IVZ vs. CG: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option? Yahoo Finance · Jul 31, 2026
• Centerra Gold (TSX:CG) Stock Looks Below Fair Value Despite A 227% Run Yahoo Finance · Jul 30, 2026

Peer Group

Asset Management · 963 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 46/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.