Challenger Ltd (CGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Challenger Ltd stock A$5.99, price A$12.12, that is 50.6% below the price, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$4.63 – A$12.30 · fair‑value band A$4.88 – A$8.76 · the A$12.12 price screens above the A$5.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 12, 2026.
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Challenger Limited is a publicly owned investment manager. The company also provides retirement services to its clients. It manages equity mutual funds. The firm invests into the public equity markets across the world.
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Challenger Limited was founded in 1985 and is based in Australia, Asia and United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Challenger Ltd (CGF) currently trades at A$12.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$5.99, 51% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$8.61 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the A$12.12 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$3.58, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$4.88 (bear) to A$8.76 (bull), the price of A$12.12 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Challenger Ltd reported revenue of A$2.2B in FY2026 versus −A$414M in FY2022. Reported net income was A$506M in FY2026, compounding +18.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$9.7B (≈ $6.6B) Mid · P/E ratio 21.3 · P/S ratio 3.37 · EPS (TTM) A$0.5700 · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 17.6% · Return on equity 11.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 64 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 67% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −51%, CGF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$4.88Fair Value A$5.99BullA$8.76
Price A$12.12 · Downside -50.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0987 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual IncomeA$5.74A$7.05A$10.3173
DDM Multi-StageA$4.05A$7.25A$9.2464
Gordon GGMA$4.05A$8.88A$15.0463
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMA$4.05A$8.88A$15.0463
DDM Multi-StageA$4.05A$7.25A$9.2464
Multiples
P/E MultipleA$7.30A$9.73A$12.1663
P/B MultipleA$5.61A$7.48A$9.3555
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)A$2.67A$3.58A$5.3554
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeA$5.74A$7.05A$10.3173
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ −4.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.3% vs 1.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.36% → 31%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2026 sits 130% above its own trend.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (32 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Challenger shows a moderate moat through annuity book expansion but low ROE points to limited profitability advantage with only thin evidence available.
Main risk: Investment market volatility reducing reported profits and pressuring the core life insurance operations.
Challenger continues expanding its annuity book through strong sales growth while running an active on-market share buyback program with excess capital. This capital return strategy sits alongside the upcoming shift to a Core Earnings reporting framework from FY27. Will the buybacks deliver more lasting value than deploying that capital into further annuity or funds management expansion?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Life · 77 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−50.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.8% · Below median
Return on assets1.4% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)17.6% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)60.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−16.9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.39× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)21.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.38× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)3.37× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)5.1× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA6.1× · Cheaper than median
PEG1.31× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 14
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 38
PAST (return on equity)47· sector 48
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)50· sector 56
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Challenger Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CGF
Frequently asked questions
Is Challenger Ltd (CGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$5.99 versus a price of A$12.12, about 51% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CGF?
Our model-based fair value for Challenger Ltd is A$5.99 (as of Nov 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$12.12.
What is the quality score of CGF?
Challenger Ltd has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Challenger Ltd (CGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$5.99 (as of Nov 12, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$4.88, optimistic scenario A$8.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Challenger Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$5.99, about 51% lower versus a price of A$12.12 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$4.88, optimistic scenario A$8.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Challenger Ltd (CGF)?
Challenger Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$2.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 12, 2026).
Does Challenger Ltd pay a dividend?
Challenger Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.52% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 12, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Challenger Ltd (CGF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Challenger Ltd pays a dividend of A$0.305 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.5%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 25, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2005. The payout ratio is 53.5% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Challenger Ltd (CGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Challenger Ltd it is A$5.99 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026), against a price of A$12.12. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Challenger Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 12, 2026, CGF trades above its calculated fair value: price A$12.12, fair value A$5.99, a gap of about −51% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$12.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$5.99). For Challenger Ltd the two are A$6.13 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Challenger Ltd worth?
The market values Challenger Ltd at about A$9.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 12, 2026). Per share that is A$12.12; our models calculate a fair value of A$5.99 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CGF?
Our models span a range for Challenger Ltd: cautious scenario A$4.88, base A$5.99, optimistic A$8.76 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026, price A$12.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CGF?
Challenger Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.3 (as of Nov 12, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$5.99 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 20.5. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 2.4, P/S 3.4, EV/EBITDA 6.1.
What is the PEG ratio of CGF?
The PEG ratio of Challenger Ltd is 1.31 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 12, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Challenger Ltd (CGF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Challenger Ltd (as of Nov 12, 2026): return on equity 11.8%, debt of 0.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CGF from its 52-week high?
Challenger Ltd trades at A$12.12, about 1% below its 52-week high of A$12.30 and 67% above the low of A$7.25 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$5.99 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Challenger Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Ping An Insurance (Group) Company, China Life Insurance Company, AIA Group, Manulife Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Challenger Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 12, 2026: price A$12.12, calculated fair value A$5.99 (−51%), Quality Score 59/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CGF calculated?
We run Challenger Ltd through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$5.99 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3% above its aggregate fair value. Challenger Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Challenger Ltd (CGF)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was A$12.12. Our model-based fair value is A$5.99, about 51% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Challenger Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$8.76). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Challenger Ltd (CGF) come from?
Earnings per share at Challenger Ltd grew −4.1 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.3 %, EBIT margin +0.1 %, tax rate −1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Challenger Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Challenger Ltd (CGF)?
The market capitalisation of Challenger Ltd is A$9.7B (≈ $6.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Challenger Ltd (CGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Challenger Ltd is 3.37 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Challenger Ltd (CGF)?
Earnings per share at Challenger Ltd are A$0.5700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Challenger Ltd (CGF)?
The dividend yield of Challenger Ltd is 2.5% (payout 53.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Challenger Ltd (CGF)?
The net margin of Challenger Ltd is 17.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Challenger Ltd (CGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Challenger Ltd is 11.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Challenger Ltd (CGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Challenger Ltd is 1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Challenger Ltd (CGF)?
The operating margin of Challenger Ltd is 60.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Challenger Ltd (CGF)?
Revenue at Challenger Ltd is growing −16.9% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Challenger Ltd (CGF)?
Earnings per share at Challenger Ltd are growing +333% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Challenger Ltd (CGF) generate?
The free cash flow of Challenger Ltd is A$1.9B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Challenger Ltd (CGF) carry?
The net debt of Challenger Ltd is A$7.8B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 4.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 12, 2026