PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk stock IDR 246, price IDR 198, upside +24.2%, quality 66 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
51‑month range 181.43 IDR – 330.00 IDR · fair‑value band 184.47 IDR – 307.45 IDR · the 198.00 IDR price screens below the 245.96 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk engages in the seafood processing business in Indonesia.
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The company offers pasteurized products, including jumbo lump, super lump, claw, and cocktail claw products; and canned and frozen products, such as fish, cephalopods, shellfish, value-added, and seafood mix products.
It sells its products in the United States, the European community, Japan, Hong Kong, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia. The company was founded in 1997 and is based in Deli Serdang, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB) currently trades at 198.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 245.96 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 19% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 307.53 IDR per share, and 15 of the 25 models we run sit above the 198.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 93.13 IDR, and 10 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 184.47 IDR (bear) to 307.45 IDR (bull), the price of 198.00 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk reported revenue of 617B IDR in FY2025 versus 659B IDR in FY2021, a compound −1.6%/yr. Reported net income was 22.8B IDR in FY2025, compounding +33.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 386B IDR (≈ $21.4M) Micro · P/S ratio 0.61 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 2.9% · Return on equity 7.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin 2.7% · Revenue (TTM) 641B IDR.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 39 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 24%, CRAB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear184.47 IDRFair Value 245.96 IDRBull307.45 IDR
Price 198.00 IDR · Upside +24.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.64/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
’19
’20
’21
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’23
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+51.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+50.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 5%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−7.0%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.4% a year for the price.
Compare PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 627 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+24.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.8% · Above median
Return on assets8.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)2.9% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)2.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)69.4% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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Is PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 245.96 IDR versus a price of 198.00 IDR, about +24% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CRAB?
Our model-based fair value for PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk is 245.96 IDR (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 198.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of CRAB?
PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 245.96 IDR (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 184.47 IDR, optimistic scenario 307.45 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 245.96 IDR, about +24% upside versus a price of 198.00 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 184.47 IDR, optimistic scenario 307.45 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB)?
PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 641B IDR (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk pay a dividend?
PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of 1.01% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
How much is the dividend of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB) and when is the ex-dividend date?
PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk pays a dividend of 2.00 IDR per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 6, 2026. The payout ratio is 17.1% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 11.87 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by -7.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.2 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CRAB use?
Our models discount PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.12, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk that is -7.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk grew +5.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -7.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (-7.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.99 %: that much free cash flow PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk it is 245.96 IDR per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of 198.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, CRAB trades below its calculated fair value: price 198.00 IDR, fair value 245.96 IDR, a gap of about +24% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CRAB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (198.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (245.96 IDR). For PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk the two are 47.96 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk worth?
The market values PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk at about 386B IDR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is 198.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 245.96 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CRAB?
Our models span a range for PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk: cautious scenario 184.47 IDR, base 245.96 IDR, optimistic 307.45 IDR per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price 198.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB)?
Balance-sheet figures for PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 7.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CRAB from its 52-week high?
PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk trades at 198.00 IDR, about 40% below its 52-week high of 330.00 IDR and 4% above the low of 190.00 IDR (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 245.96 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price 198.00 IDR, calculated fair value 245.96 IDR (+24%), Quality Score 66/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CRAB calculated?
We run PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 245.96 IDR builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk currently trades 19% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was 198.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 245.96 IDR, about +24% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk right now?
Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB)?
The market capitalisation of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk is 386B IDR (≈ $21.4M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk is 0.61 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB)?
The dividend yield of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk is 1.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB)?
The net margin of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk is 2.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk is 7.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk is 8.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB)?
The operating margin of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB)?
Revenue at PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk is growing +69.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB)?
Earnings per share at PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk are growing −43.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB) hold?
PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk holds more cash than debt, 63.1B IDR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 3, 2026