PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk IDR 312, price IDR 220, upside +42.0%, quality 74 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk engages in the seafood processing business in Indonesia. The company offers pasteurized products, including jumbo lump, super lump, claw, and cocktail claw products; and canned and frozen products, such as fish, cephalopods, shellfish, value-added, and seafood mix products.
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PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk engages in the seafood processing business in Indonesia. The company offers pasteurized products, including jumbo lump, super lump, claw, and cocktail claw products; and canned and frozen products, such as fish, cephalopods, shellfish, value-added, and seafood mix products. It sells its products in the United States, the European community, Japan, Hong Kong, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia. The company was founded in 1997 and is based in Deli Serdang, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB) currently trades at 220.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 312.46 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 29.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 470.48 IDR per share, and 17 of the 22 models we run sit above the 220.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 75.32 IDR, and 5 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 234.35 IDR (bear) to 390.58 IDR (bull), the price of 220.00 IDR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk reported revenue of 590B IDR in FY2024 versus 478B IDR in FY2020, a compound +5.4%/yr. Reported net income was 29.0B IDR in FY2024, compounding +96.2%/yr from FY2020. FY2020 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 429B IDR (≈ $24.0M) · P/S ratio 0.67 · Net margin 4.9% · Return on equity 13.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.9% · Operating margin 5.4% · Revenue (TTM) 609B IDR · Revenue growth (YoY) +1.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at 42%, CRAB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 234.35 IDRFair Value 312.46 IDRBull 390.58 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.6%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+58.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+58.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 7%
2024 sits 145% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−21.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −23.4% a year for the price.
Compare PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 666 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/9 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+42% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14% · Above median
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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Is PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 312.46 IDR versus a price of 220.00 IDR, about +42% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CRAB?
Our model-based fair value for PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk is 312.46 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 220.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of CRAB?
PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 312.46 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario 234.35 IDR, optimistic scenario 390.58 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 312.46 IDR, about +42% upside versus a price of 220.00 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 234.35 IDR, optimistic scenario 390.58 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB)?
PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 609B IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by -21.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CRAB use?
Our models discount PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.13, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk that is -21.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk grew +2.6 % a year. The price currently implies -21.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (-21.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 26.16 %: that much free cash flow PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk it is 312.46 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 220.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CRAB trades below its calculated fair value: price 220.00 IDR, fair value 312.46 IDR, a gap of about +42% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CRAB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (220.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (312.46 IDR). For PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk the two are 92.46 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk worth?
The market values PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk at about 429B IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 220.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 312.46 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CRAB?
Our models span a range for PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk: cautious scenario 234.35 IDR, base 312.46 IDR, optimistic 390.58 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 220.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB)?
Balance-sheet figures for PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 13.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CRAB from its 52-week high?
PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk trades at 220.00 IDR, about 33% below its 52-week high of 330.00 IDR and 10% above the low of 200.00 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 312.46 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, The Kraft Heinz Company, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 220.00 IDR, calculated fair value 312.46 IDR (+42%), Quality Score 74/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CRAB calculated?
We run PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 312.46 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk currently trades 42 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 220.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 312.46 IDR, about +42% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (74/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (234.35 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB)?
The market capitalisation of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk is 429B IDR (≈ $24.0M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk is 0.67 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB)?
The net margin of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk is 4.9% (fiscal year 2024). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk is 13.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk is 6.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB)?
The operating margin of PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk is 5.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB)?
Revenue at PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk is growing +1.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB)?
Earnings per share at PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk are growing +1.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk (CRAB) hold?
PT Toba Surimi Industries Tbk holds more cash than debt, 25.3B IDR net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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