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Cardiff Oncology Inc (CRDF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Cardiff Oncology Inc stock $0.56, price $0.80, that is 30.0% below the price, quality 33 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Healthcare US

CO Cardiff Oncology Inc logo Thin data Nov 8, 2026

Cardiff Oncology Inc

CRDF · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 30% below what the stock costs today.

Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +10.1 %/yr in USD)
Insiders bought $1.1M (6M)
Revenue last quarter 14% below a year ago.
Fair value $0.5600 · Overvalued (−30.0%)
Quality 33/100
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/6)
Narrow moat 9/100
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$7.58 $0.7553 Fair Value $0.5600 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.7553 – $7.58 · fair‑value band $0.3700 – $0.7000 · the $0.8000 price screens above the $0.5600 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

Cardiff Oncology, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, develops novel therapies for the treatment of various cancers in the United States. Its lead drug candidate is Onvansertib, an oral and selective polo-like kinase 1 inhibitor for treating RAS-mutated metastatic colorectal cancer.

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The company also focuses on the clinical program in indications, such as investigator-initiated trials in metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, small cell lung cancer, metastatic triple negative breast cancer, and chronic myelomonocytic leukemia; CRDF-004, a Phase 2 open-label randomized multi-center clinical trial of onvansertib in combination with FOLFIRI and bevacizumab or FOLFOX and bevacizumab for the treatment of patients confirmed metastatic and unresectable colorectal cancer in patients with a KRAS or NRAS mutation; and TROV-054, a Phase 1b/2 single-arm clinical trial in KRAS-mutated metastatic colorectal cancer.

The company was formerly known as Trovagene, Inc. and changed its name to Cardiff Oncology, Inc. in May 2012. Cardiff Oncology, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

Stock analysis

Cardiff Oncology Inc (CRDF) currently trades at $0.8000, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.5600, 30% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: $0.3700 (bear) to $0.7000 (bull), the price of $0.8000 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Cardiff Oncology Inc reported revenue of $593K in FY2025 versus $359K in FY2021, a compound +13.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$45.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $61.9M Micro · EPS (TTM) $−0.6000 · Return on equity −94.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −47.7% (5-year average) · Operating margin −9,245% · Revenue (TTM) $508K · Revenue growth (YoY) −14.1% · Free cash flow −$38.0M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 9 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 75% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −30%, CRDF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.3700 Fair Value $0.5600 Bull $0.7000
Price $0.8000 · Downside -30.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) $0.3700 $0.5600 $0.7000 52
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.3700 $0.5600 $0.7000 52

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 33/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 20
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 7
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 74
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 90
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 9
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 7
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 1
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 28
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors bought shares worth $1.1M, most recently on Jul 14, 2026. Buying cluster

  • BuyMani MohindruChief Executive Officer, Director2× since Jun 18, 2026: 59,067 shares, avg. $1.36$80,062Jul 14, 2026
  • BuyGary W PaceDirector2× since Jun 18, 2026: 717,285 shares, avg. $1.45$1.0MJul 14, 2026

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 29/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−13.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.6% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−5,214.8% (2020) → −8,256.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

CRDF screens overvalued: fair value 30% below the price. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 558 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/5 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 33 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −30.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −74.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −14.1% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.36× · Cheaper than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Incyte Corporation INCY $119.65 $199.23 +67% vs CRDF
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $904.35 $1,275 +41% vs CRDF
Genmab A/S GMAB kr 3,527 kr 3,999 +13% vs CRDF
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,516,000 KRW 1,667,600 KRW +10% vs CRDF
WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 HK$47.62 HK$52.38 +10% vs CRDF
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $547.09 $596.75 +9% vs CRDF
argenx SE ARGX $927.21 $908.40 −2% vs CRDF
CSL Limited CSL A$202.04 A$183.04 −9% vs CRDF
Celltrion, Inc 068270 211,000 KRW 74,945 KRW −64% vs CRDF
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $67.30 $19.01 −72% vs CRDF

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Cardiff Oncology Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cardiff Oncology Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CRDF

Frequently asked questions

Is Cardiff Oncology Inc (CRDF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.5600 versus a price of $0.8000, about 30% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CRDF?
Our model-based fair value for Cardiff Oncology Inc is $0.5600 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.8000.
What is the quality score of CRDF?
Cardiff Oncology Inc has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cardiff Oncology Inc (CRDF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.5600 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.3700, optimistic scenario $0.7000. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cardiff Oncology Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.5600, about 30% lower versus a price of $0.8000 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.3700, optimistic scenario $0.7000. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cardiff Oncology Inc (CRDF)?
Cardiff Oncology Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $508K (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Cardiff Oncology Inc (CRDF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cardiff Oncology Inc it is $0.5600 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $0.8000. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Cardiff Oncology Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, CRDF trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.8000, fair value $0.5600, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CRDF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.8000); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.5600). For Cardiff Oncology Inc the two are $0.2400 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cardiff Oncology Inc worth?
The market values Cardiff Oncology Inc at about $61.9M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $0.8000; our models calculate a fair value of $0.5600 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CRDF?
Our models span a range for Cardiff Oncology Inc: cautious scenario $0.3700, base $0.5600, optimistic $0.7000 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $0.8000). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cardiff Oncology Inc (CRDF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cardiff Oncology Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −94.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CRDF from its 52-week high?
Cardiff Oncology Inc trades at $0.8000, about 75% below its 52-week high of $3.21 and 6% above the low of $0.7553 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.5600 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cardiff Oncology Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, argenx SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cardiff Oncology Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $0.8000, calculated fair value $0.5600 (−30%), Quality Score 33/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CRDF calculated?
We run Cardiff Oncology Inc through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $0.5600 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Cardiff Oncology Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cardiff Oncology Inc (CRDF)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $0.8000. Our model-based fair value is $0.5600, about 30% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cardiff Oncology Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.7000). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.3700 to $0.7000) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Cardiff Oncology Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Cardiff Oncology Inc (CRDF)?
The market capitalisation of Cardiff Oncology Inc is $61.9M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Cardiff Oncology Inc (CRDF)?
Earnings per share at Cardiff Oncology Inc are $−0.6000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Cardiff Oncology Inc (CRDF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cardiff Oncology Inc is −94.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cardiff Oncology Inc (CRDF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cardiff Oncology Inc is −47.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cardiff Oncology Inc (CRDF)?
The operating margin of Cardiff Oncology Inc is −9,245% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cardiff Oncology Inc (CRDF)?
Revenue at Cardiff Oncology Inc is growing −14.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Cardiff Oncology Inc (CRDF) generate?
The free cash flow of Cardiff Oncology Inc is −$38.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Cardiff Oncology Inc (CRDF) hold?
Cardiff Oncology Inc holds more cash than debt, $16.6M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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