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Cardiff Oncology Inc (CRDF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Cardiff Oncology Inc $0.56, price $1.33, upside -57.9%, quality 31 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Healthcare · US · ISIN US14147L1089

CO Cardiff Oncology Inc logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Cardiff Oncology Inc

CRDF · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $0.5600 · Strongly overvalued (−58%)
!Quality 31/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +10.1 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (0/6)
!Narrow moat 0/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$7.87 $0.8100 Fair Value $0.5600 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.8100 – $7.87 · fair‑value band $0.3700 – $0.7000 · the $1.33 price screens above the $0.5600 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Cardiff Oncology, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, develops novel therapies for the treatment of various cancers in the United States. Its lead drug candidate is Onvansertib, an oral and selective polo-like kinase 1 inhibitor for treating RAS-mutated metastatic colorectal cancer.

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Cardiff Oncology, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, develops novel therapies for the treatment of various cancers in the United States. Its lead drug candidate is Onvansertib, an oral and selective polo-like kinase 1 inhibitor for treating RAS-mutated metastatic colorectal cancer. The company also focuses on the clinical program in indications, such as investigator-initiated trials in metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, small cell lung cancer, metastatic triple negative breast cancer, and chronic myelomonocytic leukemia; CRDF-004, a Phase 2 open-label randomized multi-center clinical trial of onvansertib in combination with FOLFIRI and bevacizumab or FOLFOX and bevacizumab for the treatment of patients confirmed metastatic and unresectable colorectal cancer in patients with a KRAS or NRAS mutation; and TROV-054, a Phase 1b/2 single-arm clinical trial in KRAS-mutated metastatic colorectal cancer. The company was formerly known as Trovagene, Inc. and changed its name to Cardiff Oncology, Inc. in May 2012. Cardiff Oncology, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

Stock analysis

Cardiff Oncology Inc (CRDF) currently trades at $1.33, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.5600, implying the stock looks roughly 137.5% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $0.3700 (bear) to $0.7000 (bull), the price of $1.33 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Cardiff Oncology Inc reported revenue of $593K in FY2025 versus $359K in FY2021, a compound +13.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$45.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $102M · EPS (TTM) $−0.6700 · Return on equity −84.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −47.7% · Operating margin −31,341% · Revenue (TTM) $525K · Revenue growth (YoY) −62.4% · Free cash flow −$38.0M.

What moves the price

The share trades about 71% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −58%, CRDF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.3700 Fair Value $0.5600 Bull $0.7000
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $0.2900 $0.3900 $0.5800 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.2900 $0.3900 $0.5800 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 31/100

Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 16

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 20
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 7
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 74
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 90
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 13
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 21
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 11
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 28
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 29/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−13.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.6% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−5,214.8% (2020) → −8,256.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

CRDF screens 137% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 648 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/5 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 33 · Below median
Fair Value upside −58% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −47% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −14% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.25× · Pricier than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $514.99 $566.49 +10%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $803.90 $1,252 +56%
argenx SE ARGX $963.79 $918.60 −5%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,366,000 KRW 1,502,600 KRW +10%
CSL Limited CSL A$179.24 A$197.16 +10%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $251.65 $218.36 −13%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.52 $24.22 −59%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 177,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
BeOne Medicines AG ONC $368.08 $280.94 −24%
BioNTech SE BNTX $100.87 $63.62 −37%

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Cardiff Oncology Inc · Fair Value
$0.5600 −137%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cardiff Oncology Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CRDF

Frequently asked questions

Is Cardiff Oncology Inc (CRDF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.5600 versus a price of $1.33, about −58% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CRDF?
Our model-based fair value for Cardiff Oncology Inc is $0.5600 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.33.
What is the quality score of CRDF?
Cardiff Oncology Inc has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cardiff Oncology Inc (CRDF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.5600 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.3700, optimistic scenario $0.7000. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cardiff Oncology Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.5600, about −58% upside versus a price of $1.33 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.3700, optimistic scenario $0.7000. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cardiff Oncology Inc (CRDF)?
Cardiff Oncology Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $525K (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Cardiff Oncology Inc (CRDF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cardiff Oncology Inc it is $0.5600 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $1.33. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cardiff Oncology Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CRDF trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.33, fair value $0.5600, a gap of about −58% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CRDF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.33); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.5600). For Cardiff Oncology Inc the two are $0.7700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cardiff Oncology Inc worth?
The market values Cardiff Oncology Inc at about $102M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $1.33; our models calculate a fair value of $0.5600 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CRDF?
Our models span a range for Cardiff Oncology Inc: cautious scenario $0.3700, base $0.5600, optimistic $0.7000 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $1.33). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cardiff Oncology Inc (CRDF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cardiff Oncology Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −94.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CRDF from its 52-week high?
Cardiff Oncology Inc trades at $1.33, about 71% below its 52-week high of $4.56 and 15% above the low of $1.16 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.5600 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cardiff Oncology Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, Samsung Biologics Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cardiff Oncology Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $1.33, calculated fair value $0.5600 (−58%), Quality Score 31/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CRDF calculated?
We run Cardiff Oncology Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.5600, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Cardiff Oncology Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cardiff Oncology Inc (CRDF)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was $1.33. Our model-based fair value is $0.5600, about −58% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cardiff Oncology Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.7000). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.3700 to $0.7000) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Cardiff Oncology Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Cardiff Oncology Inc (CRDF)?
The market capitalisation of Cardiff Oncology Inc is $102M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Cardiff Oncology Inc (CRDF)?
Earnings per share at Cardiff Oncology Inc are $−0.6700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Cardiff Oncology Inc (CRDF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cardiff Oncology Inc is −84.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cardiff Oncology Inc (CRDF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cardiff Oncology Inc is −47.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cardiff Oncology Inc (CRDF)?
The operating margin of Cardiff Oncology Inc is −31,341% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cardiff Oncology Inc (CRDF)?
Revenue at Cardiff Oncology Inc is growing −62.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Cardiff Oncology Inc (CRDF) generate?
The free cash flow of Cardiff Oncology Inc is −$38.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Cardiff Oncology Inc (CRDF) hold?
Cardiff Oncology Inc holds more cash than debt, $16.6M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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