Count Ltd (CUP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Count Ltd stock A$1.25, price A$1.67, that is 25.2% below the price, quality 44 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.4278 – A$1.70 · fair‑value band A$0.9350 – A$1.56 · the A$1.67 price screens above the A$1.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Count Limited provides accounting, business advisory, and financial planning services in Australia. It operates through Equity Partnerships, Wealth, and Services segments.
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The Equity Partnerships segment offers accounting, audit and assurance, taxation, financial planning, and business and corporate advisory services. The Wealth segment provides financial services and investment products provided by Australian Financial Services license holders.
The Service segment offers services that support the accounting and financial planning firms. It provides training, finance and lending, digital and IT systems, sector expertise, and support services.
The company was formerly known as CountPlus Limited and changed its name to Count Limited in May 2023. Count Limited was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.
Stock analysis
Count Ltd (CUP) currently trades at A$1.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.25, 25% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$1.93 per share, and 12 of the 26 models we run sit above the A$1.67 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at A$0.3250, and 14 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$0.9350 (bear) to A$1.56 (bull), the price of A$1.67 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Count Ltd reported revenue of A$167M in FY2026 versus A$86.7M in FY2022, a compound +17.8%/yr. Reported net income was A$15.2M in FY2026, compounding +31.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$333M (≈ $230M) Micro · P/E ratio 21.9 · P/S ratio 1.38 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0761 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 9.2% · Return on equity 12.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 77% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −25%, CUP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$0.9350Fair Value A$1.25BullA$1.56
Price A$1.67 · Downside -25.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0108 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFA$1.55A$2.09A$2.7781
Growth DCFA$1.55A$2.01A$2.5580
Owner EarningsA$1.44A$1.93A$2.5677
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFA$1.55A$2.09A$2.7781
Owner EarningsA$1.44A$1.93A$2.5677
5Y Revenue ExitA$1.29A$1.78A$2.4073
5Y EBITDA ExitA$1.53A$2.24A$3.0775
5Y P/E ExitA$1.36A$1.92A$2.5171
10Y Revenue ExitA$1.37A$1.81A$2.3768
10Y EBITDA ExitA$1.52A$2.08A$2.8269
10Y P/E ExitA$1.43A$1.89A$2.4565
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddA$0.4800A$1.57A$2.1164
Lynch FVA$0.3500A$0.5100A$0.660061
PEG = 1.0A$0.3500A$0.5100A$0.660057
EPVA$0.7500A$0.8100A$0.860074
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMA$0.2000A$0.3400A$0.440068
DDM Multi-StageA$0.2000A$0.3100A$0.370067
Multiples
P/E MultipleA$1.10A$1.47A$1.8463
P/S MultipleA$0.8900A$1.19A$1.4958
P/B MultipleA$0.2900A$0.3900A$0.490055
EV/EBITA$1.28A$1.70A$2.1166
EV/EBITDAA$1.48A$1.96A$2.4467
EV/RevenueA$0.9300A$1.31A$1.6954
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)A$0.0400A$0.0600A$0.090053
Growth DCF
Growth DCFA$1.55A$2.01A$2.5580
Rev-Margin DCFA$1.29A$1.79A$2.3973
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeA$0.5900A$0.6200A$0.690076
ROIC CompounderA$0.7500A$0.8300A$0.920072
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EA$0.9300A$1.33A$1.7367
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.87/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.4% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+42.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+7.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.8% vs −3.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 13%
2026 sits 67% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+17.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.2% a year for the price and +14.2% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Business Services · 229 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−25.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.3% · Above median
Return on assets2.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)9.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)12.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)19.3% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.07× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Business Services median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Count Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CUP
Frequently asked questions
Is Count Ltd (CUP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$1.25 versus a price of A$1.67, about 25% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CUP?
Our model-based fair value for Count Ltd is A$1.25 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$1.67.
What is the quality score of CUP?
Count Ltd has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Count Ltd (CUP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$1.25 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.9350, optimistic scenario A$1.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Count Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$1.25, about 25% lower versus a price of A$1.67 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.9350, optimistic scenario A$1.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Count Ltd (CUP)?
Count Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$166M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Count Ltd pay a dividend?
Count Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.99% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Count Ltd (CUP) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Count Ltd pays a dividend of A$0.05 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 31, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2011. The payout ratio is 62.5% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.81 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Count Ltd (CUP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Count Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +2.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.6 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CUP use?
Our models discount Count Ltd at 12.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Count Ltd that is +2.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Count Ltd (CUP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Count Ltd grew +15.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +2.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Count Ltd (CUP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Count Ltd (+2.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Count Ltd (CUP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.15 %: that much free cash flow Count Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Count Ltd (CUP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Count Ltd it is A$1.25 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of A$1.67. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Count Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, CUP trades above its calculated fair value: price A$1.67, fair value A$1.25, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CUP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$1.67); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$1.25). For Count Ltd the two are A$0.4205 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Count Ltd worth?
The market values Count Ltd at about A$333M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is A$1.67; our models calculate a fair value of A$1.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CUP?
Our models span a range for Count Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.9350, base A$1.25, optimistic A$1.56 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price A$1.67). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CUP?
Count Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.9 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$1.25 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2018 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2026 ex one-offs: 18.4. Other multiples: PEG 3.2, P/B 1.4, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 6.5.
What is the PEG ratio of CUP?
The PEG ratio of Count Ltd is 3.16 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Count Ltd (CUP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Count Ltd (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 12.3%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CUP from its 52-week high?
Count Ltd trades at A$1.67, about 2% below its 52-week high of A$1.70 and 77% above the low of A$0.9440 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$1.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Count Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Cintas Corporation, Thomson Reuters Corporation, Copart, Inc, Global Payments Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Count Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price A$1.67, calculated fair value A$1.25 (−25%), Quality Score 44/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CUP calculated?
We run Count Ltd through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$1.25 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Count Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Count Ltd (CUP)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$1.67. Our model-based fair value is A$1.25, about 25% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Count Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$1.56). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of Count Ltd (CUP) come from?
Earnings per share at Count Ltd grew −7.6 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −2.7 %, EBIT margin +1.3 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −6.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Count Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Count Ltd (CUP)?
The market capitalisation of Count Ltd is A$333M (≈ $230M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Count Ltd (CUP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Count Ltd is 1.38 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Count Ltd (CUP)?
Earnings per share at Count Ltd are A$0.0761 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Count Ltd (CUP)?
The dividend yield of Count Ltd is 3.0% (payout 65.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Count Ltd (CUP)?
The net margin of Count Ltd is 9.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Count Ltd (CUP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Count Ltd is 12.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Count Ltd (CUP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Count Ltd is 1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Count Ltd (CUP)?
The operating margin of Count Ltd is 12.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Count Ltd (CUP)?
Revenue at Count Ltd is growing +19.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Count Ltd (CUP)?
Earnings per share at Count Ltd are growing +7.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Count Ltd (CUP) hold?
Count Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$8.1M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026