Great Elm Group Inc (GEG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Great Elm Group Inc stock $4.30, price $2.18, upside +97.2%, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 3 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.41 – $3.09 · fair‑value band $2.35 – $7.29 · the $2.18 price screens below the $4.30 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Great Elm Group, Inc., an asset management company, focuses on the credit, real estate, specialty finance, and other alternative strategies businesses. It also engages in business development and investment management activities.
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The company was formerly known as Great Elm Capital Group, Inc. and changed its name to Great Elm Group, Inc. in December 2020. Great Elm Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.
Stock analysis
Great Elm Group Inc (GEG) currently trades at $2.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.30, implying the stock looks roughly 49% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $6.98 per share, and 2 of the 3 models we run sit above the $2.18 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.9000, and 1 of the 3 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $2.35 (bear) to $7.29 (bull), the price of $2.18 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Great Elm Group Inc reported revenue of $27.8M in FY2026 versus $4.5M in FY2022, a compound +57.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$35.4M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $66.0M Micro · P/S ratio 2.36 · EPS (TTM) $−1.17 · Net margin −128% · Return on equity −60.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −7.3% (5-year average) · Operating margin −19.7% · Revenue (TTM) $27.8M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 16 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 97%, GEG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$2.35Fair Value $4.30Bull$7.29
Price $2.18 · Upside +97.2%
Capped: our models arrive at a very high value here. We deliberately show a more cautious Fair Value.
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
Plus 6 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.21/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+70.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+47.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
’14
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−6.1% (2021) → −50.4% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−19.9%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −21.7% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 587 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside+97.2% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−31.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−127.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−19.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)88.3% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.55× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Great Elm Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GEG
Frequently asked questions
Is Great Elm Group Inc (GEG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.30 versus a price of $2.18, about +97% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GEG?
Our model-based fair value for Great Elm Group Inc is $4.30 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.18.
What is the quality score of GEG?
Great Elm Group Inc has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Great Elm Group Inc (GEG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.30 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.35, optimistic scenario $7.29. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Great Elm Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.30, about +97% upside versus a price of $2.18 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $2.35, optimistic scenario $7.29. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Great Elm Group Inc (GEG)?
Great Elm Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $27.8M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Great Elm Group Inc (GEG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Great Elm Group Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -19.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -14.5 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GEG use?
Our models discount Great Elm Group Inc at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.62, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Great Elm Group Inc that is -19.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Great Elm Group Inc (GEG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Great Elm Group Inc grew -14.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -19.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Great Elm Group Inc (GEG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Great Elm Group Inc (-19.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Great Elm Group Inc (GEG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 17.99 %: that much free cash flow Great Elm Group Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Great Elm Group Inc (GEG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Great Elm Group Inc it is $4.30 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $2.18. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models in 2 families (Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is Great Elm Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, GEG trades below its calculated fair value: price $2.18, fair value $4.30, a gap of about +97% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GEG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.18); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.30). For Great Elm Group Inc the two are $2.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Great Elm Group Inc worth?
The market values Great Elm Group Inc at about $66.0M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $2.18; our models calculate a fair value of $4.30 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GEG?
Our models span a range for Great Elm Group Inc: cautious scenario $2.35, base $4.30, optimistic $7.29 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $2.18). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of GEG?
The PEG ratio of Great Elm Group Inc is 0.77 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Great Elm Group Inc (GEG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Great Elm Group Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −60.8%, debt of 1.55 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GEG from its 52-week high?
Great Elm Group Inc trades at $2.18, about 21% below its 52-week high of $2.76 and 20% above the low of $1.81 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.30 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Great Elm Group Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Asset Management Ltd, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Great Elm Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $2.18, calculated fair value $4.30 (+97%), Quality Score 62/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GEG calculated?
We run Great Elm Group Inc through 3 models from 2 families: Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $4.30 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Great Elm Group Inc currently trades 49% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Great Elm Group Inc (GEG)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $2.18. Our model-based fair value is $4.30, about +97% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Great Elm Group Inc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($2.35). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($2.35 to $7.29). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Great Elm Group Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Great Elm Group Inc (GEG)?
The market capitalisation of Great Elm Group Inc is $66.0M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Great Elm Group Inc (GEG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Great Elm Group Inc is 2.36 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Great Elm Group Inc (GEG)?
Earnings per share at Great Elm Group Inc are $−1.17. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Great Elm Group Inc (GEG)?
The net margin of Great Elm Group Inc is −128% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Great Elm Group Inc (GEG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Great Elm Group Inc is −60.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Great Elm Group Inc (GEG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Great Elm Group Inc is −7.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Great Elm Group Inc (GEG)?
The operating margin of Great Elm Group Inc is −19.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Great Elm Group Inc (GEG)?
Revenue at Great Elm Group Inc is growing +88.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +47.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Great Elm Group Inc (GEG)?
Earnings per share at Great Elm Group Inc are growing −91.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Great Elm Group Inc (GEG) carry?
The net debt of Great Elm Group Inc is $10.9M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 0.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 6, 2026