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Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi stock TRY 2.13, price TRY 1.25, upside +70.0%, quality 42 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services TR · ISIN TREHEDF00017

HG Hedef Girisim Sermayesi logo Thin data Nov 7, 2026

Hedef Girisim Sermayesi

HDFGS · IS
Cheap, value-trap risk

The stock costs 41% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value 2.13 TRY · Strongly undervalued (41%)
Highly profitable · 61.5% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Ranks above peers (10/12)
Wide moat 69/100
Costs just 2 times its yearly profit.
Quality 42/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +20.6 %/yr in TRY)
Negative free cash flow
Thin data
⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

6.03 TRY 0.8485 TRY Fair Value 2.13 TRY Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 0.8485 TRY – 6.03 TRY · fair‑value band 1.66 TRY – 2.65 TRY · the 1.25 TRY price screens below the 2.13 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.

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Company profile

Hedef Girisim Sermayesi Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. is a venture capital and private equity firm specializing in seed/startup, middle market in growth capital companies.

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It prefers to invest in materials, industrials, consumer discretionary, financials, capital markets, insurance, information technology, communication services, SaaS, real sector, fintech, software, gaming, real estate, agriculture and food, marketing, press and publishing, education, logistics, medical health products, polycarbonate, polymer, plastic, and plastic-like products, blockchain, crypto and SaaS. The firm prefers to invest in Africa/Middle East with a focus on Turkey.

The firm purchases a maximum of 49 percent of the shares.

Considering the demands of the applicant companies, investments are made up to an average of USD 250,000 ($0.25 million) for projects at the initial stage, at least USD 500, 000 ($0.5 million) for IT projects with established companies, at least USD 1 million and up to a maximum of USD 5 million for other sectors.

The firm typically exits the investments within 5-6 years on average. Hedef Girisim Sermayesi Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. is based in Istanbul, Turkey.

Stock analysis

Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS) currently trades at 1.25 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2.13 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 41% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of 4.15 TRY per share, and 5 of the 6 models we run sit above the 1.25 TRY price.

Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at 2.52 TRY, and 1 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: 1.66 TRY (bear) to 2.65 TRY (bull), the price of 1.25 TRY sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Hedef Girisim Sermayesi reported revenue of 1.1B TRY in FY2025 versus 19.0M TRY in FY2021, a compound +175.9%/yr. Reported net income was 296M TRY in FY2025, compounding +96.9%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 1.4B TRY (≈ $28.2M) Micro · P/E ratio 2.0 · P/S ratio 1.24 · EPS (TTM) 0.6300 TRY · Net margin 61.5% · Return on equity 19.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 24.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin 64.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 69 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 75% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 70%, HDFGS screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 1.66 TRY Fair Value 2.13 TRY Bull 2.65 TRY
Price 1.25 TRY · Upside +70.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.5368 TRY per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Owner Earnings 1.97 TRY 2.52 TRY 3.14 TRY 78
Residual Income 2.46 TRY 2.52 TRY 2.70 TRY 71
Graham-Dodd 1.78 TRY 4.15 TRY 5.33 TRY 65
All 6 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings 1.97 TRY 2.52 TRY 3.14 TRY 78
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 1.78 TRY 4.15 TRY 5.33 TRY 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple 2.56 TRY 3.41 TRY 4.26 TRY 63
P/B Multiple 3.48 TRY 4.64 TRY 5.80 TRY 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 0.0100 TRY 0.0100 TRY 0.0100 TRY 55
Economic Profit
Residual Income 2.46 TRY 2.52 TRY 2.70 TRY 71

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 42/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 42
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 85
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 2
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 75
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 33
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 41
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 0
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 6
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 60/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+88.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.6%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TRY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TRY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+14.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 591 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 42 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +70.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 19.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets 7.9% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) 61.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months) 64.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −59.2% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 2.0× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.38× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 1.24× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 1.3× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 60
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 38
PAST (return on equity)80 · sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 81

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Asset Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Exor N.V EXO €73.35 €139.37 +90% vs HDFGS
Raymond James Financial, Inc RJF $162.81 $281.42 +73% vs HDFGS
Apollo Global Management, Inc APO $116.75 $197.52 +69% vs HDFGS
Ameriprise Financial, Inc AMP $501.49 $609.56 +22% vs HDFGS
State Street Corporation STT $165.56 $139.37 −16% vs HDFGS
Ares Management Corporation ARES $133.98 $99.35 −26% vs HDFGS
Northern Trust Corporation NTRS $172.76 $123.42 −29% vs HDFGS
Brookfield Asset Management Ltd BAM $52.95 $31.26 −41% vs HDFGS
Blackstone Inc BX $119.50 $52.29 −56% vs HDFGS
KKR & Co KKR $96.48 $27.32 −72% vs HDFGS

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Hedef Girisim Sermayesi: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hedef Girisim Sermayesi Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HDFGS

Frequently asked questions

Is Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 2.13 TRY versus a price of 1.25 TRY, about +70% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HDFGS?
Our model-based fair value for Hedef Girisim Sermayesi is 2.13 TRY (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1.25 TRY.
What is the quality score of HDFGS?
Hedef Girisim Sermayesi has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 2.13 TRY (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 1.66 TRY, optimistic scenario 2.65 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hedef Girisim Sermayesi stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 2.13 TRY, about +70% upside versus a price of 1.25 TRY (undervalued). Cautious scenario 1.66 TRY, optimistic scenario 2.65 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS)?
Hedef Girisim Sermayesi reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.1B TRY (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hedef Girisim Sermayesi it is 2.13 TRY per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of 1.25 TRY. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 5 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Hedef Girisim Sermayesi stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, HDFGS trades below its calculated fair value: price 1.25 TRY, fair value 2.13 TRY, a gap of about +70% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HDFGS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1.25 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (2.13 TRY). For Hedef Girisim Sermayesi the two are 0.8750 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hedef Girisim Sermayesi worth?
The market values Hedef Girisim Sermayesi at about 1.4B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is 1.25 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 2.13 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HDFGS?
Our models span a range for Hedef Girisim Sermayesi: cautious scenario 1.66 TRY, base 2.13 TRY, optimistic 2.65 TRY per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price 1.25 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HDFGS?
Hedef Girisim Sermayesi trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.0 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 2.13 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 1.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 19.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HDFGS from its 52-week high?
Hedef Girisim Sermayesi trades at 1.25 TRY, about 75% below its 52-week high of 4.99 TRY and 47% above the low of 0.8500 TRY (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 2.13 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hedef Girisim Sermayesi?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Asset Management Ltd, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hedef Girisim Sermayesi stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price 1.25 TRY, calculated fair value 2.13 TRY (+70%), Quality Score 42/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HDFGS calculated?
We run Hedef Girisim Sermayesi through 6 models from 5 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 2.13 TRY builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7% above its aggregate fair value. Hedef Girisim Sermayesi currently trades 41% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 1.25 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 2.13 TRY, about +70% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hedef Girisim Sermayesi right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (42/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (1.66 TRY). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi

How large is the market capitalisation of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS)?
The market capitalisation of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi is 1.4B TRY (≈ $28.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi is 1.24 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS)?
Earnings per share at Hedef Girisim Sermayesi are 0.6300 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS)?
The net margin of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi is 61.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi is 19.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi is 24.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS)?
The operating margin of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi is 64.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS)?
Revenue at Hedef Girisim Sermayesi is growing −59.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +20.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS)?
Earnings per share at Hedef Girisim Sermayesi are growing +79.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS) generate?
The free cash flow of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi is −47.4M TRY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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