Hedef Girisim Sermayesi Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. (HDFGS) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · TR · Market cap 3.0B TRY
Fair value as of: Aug 8, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +1.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.8485 TRY – 6.03 TRY · fair‑value band 2.18 TRY – 3.62 TRY · the 2.64 TRY price screens below the 2.90 TRY fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.
Analysis
Hedef Girisim Sermayesi Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. (HDFGS) currently trades at 2.64 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2.90 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 9.8% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Hedef Girisim Sermayesi Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. generated revenue of 1.2B TRY at a net margin of 58.3%. Revenue declined 48.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.2%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 3.6. Fundamentals as of Aug 8, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 2.18 TRY (bear case) to 3.62 TRY (bull case); at 2.64 TRY, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at 10%, HDFGS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: Earnings-Based (9.17 TRY) versus Dividend Discount (0.0100 TRY). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hedef Girisim Sermayesi Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. is a venture capital and private equity firm specializing in seed/startup, middle market in growth capital companies.
Full company description
Hedef Girisim Sermayesi Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. is a venture capital and private equity firm specializing in seed/startup, middle market in growth capital companies. It prefers to invest in materials, industrials, consumer discretionary, financials, capital markets, insurance, information technology, communication services, SaaS, real sector, fintech, software, gaming, real estate, agriculture and food, marketing, press and publishing, education, logistics, medical health products, polycarbonate, polymer, plastic, and plastic-like products, blockchain, crypto and SaaS. The firm prefers to invest in Africa/Middle East with a focus on Turkey. The firm purchases a maximum of 49 percent of the shares. Considering the demands of the applicant companies, investments are made up to an average of USD 250,000 ($0.25 million) for projects at the initial stage, at least USD 500, 000 ($0.5 million) for IT projects with established companies, at least USD 1 million and up to a maximum of USD 5 million for other sectors. The firm typically exits the investments within 5-6 years on average. Hedef Girisim Sermayesi Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. is based in Istanbul, Turkey.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hedef Girisim Sermayesi Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. reported revenue of 1.1B TRY in FY2025 versus 19.0M TRY in FY2021, a compound +175.9%/yr. Reported net income was 296M TRY in FY2025, compounding +96.9%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Asset Management · 973 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Asset Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 8, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fondul Proprietatea SA FP | $0.0420 | $0.0800 | +90% |
| BlackRock, Inc BLK | $1,036 | $504.81 | -51% |
| Blackstone Inc BX | $124.56 | $16.35 | -87% |
| Investor AB INVEB | kr 394.40 | kr 788.80 | +100% |
| Brookfield Corporation BN | C$62.45 | C$10.12 | -84% |
| KKR & Co KKR | $100.94 | $44.88 | -56% |
| AB Industrivärden INDUA | kr 532.50 | kr 1,065 | +100% |
| Jio Financial Services Limited JIOFIN | ₹242.98 | ₹40.19 | -83% |
| Hedef Holding HEDEF | 267.25 TRY | 320.98 TRY | +20% |
| Bajaj Holdings BAJAJHLDNG | ₹10,398 | ₹9,202 | -12% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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