Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi TRY 2.90, price TRY 1.25, upside +131.9%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Hedef Girisim Sermayesi for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
Hedef Girisim Sermayesi Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. is a venture capital and private equity firm specializing in seed/startup, middle market in growth capital companies.
Show more
Hedef Girisim Sermayesi Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. is a venture capital and private equity firm specializing in seed/startup, middle market in growth capital companies. It prefers to invest in materials, industrials, consumer discretionary, financials, capital markets, insurance, information technology, communication services, SaaS, real sector, fintech, software, gaming, real estate, agriculture and food, marketing, press and publishing, education, logistics, medical health products, polycarbonate, polymer, plastic, and plastic-like products, blockchain, crypto and SaaS. The firm prefers to invest in Africa/Middle East with a focus on Turkey. The firm purchases a maximum of 49 percent of the shares. Considering the demands of the applicant companies, investments are made up to an average of USD 250,000 ($0.25 million) for projects at the initial stage, at least USD 500, 000 ($0.5 million) for IT projects with established companies, at least USD 1 million and up to a maximum of USD 5 million for other sectors. The firm typically exits the investments within 5-6 years on average. Hedef Girisim Sermayesi Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. is based in Istanbul, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS) currently trades at 1.25 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2.90 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 56.9% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of 9.17 TRY per share, and 7 of the 9 models we run sit above the 1.25 TRY price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 2.22 TRY, and 2 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 2.18 TRY (bear) to 3.62 TRY (bull), the price of 1.25 TRY sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hedef Girisim Sermayesi reported revenue of 1.1B TRY in FY2025 versus 19.0M TRY in FY2021, a compound +175.9%/yr. Reported net income was 296M TRY in FY2025, compounding +96.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.0B TRY (≈ $61.2M) · P/E ratio 3.6 · P/S ratio 0.97 · EPS (TTM) 0.7300 TRY · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin 26.9% · Return on equity 19.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 24.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at 132%, HDFGS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 2.18 TRYFair Value 2.90 TRYBull 3.62 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.5320 TRY per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.60/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+88.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+81.8%
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+56.1%
’13
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TRY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TRY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+14.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.464% → 93%
Compare Hedef Girisim Sermayesi with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 655 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+20% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)19% · Top 25%
Return on assets20% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)58% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)65% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−48% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 2.90 TRY versus a price of 1.25 TRY, about +132% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HDFGS?
Our model-based fair value for Hedef Girisim Sermayesi is 2.90 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1.25 TRY.
What is the quality score of HDFGS?
Hedef Girisim Sermayesi has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 2.90 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario 2.18 TRY, optimistic scenario 3.62 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hedef Girisim Sermayesi stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 2.90 TRY, about +132% upside versus a price of 1.25 TRY (undervalued). Cautious scenario 2.18 TRY, optimistic scenario 3.62 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS)?
Hedef Girisim Sermayesi reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.2B TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Hedef Girisim Sermayesi pay a dividend?
Hedef Girisim Sermayesi currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.01% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hedef Girisim Sermayesi it is 2.90 TRY per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 1.25 TRY. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hedef Girisim Sermayesi stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, HDFGS trades below its calculated fair value: price 1.25 TRY, fair value 2.90 TRY, a gap of about +132% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HDFGS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1.25 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (2.90 TRY). For Hedef Girisim Sermayesi the two are 1.65 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hedef Girisim Sermayesi worth?
The market values Hedef Girisim Sermayesi at about 3.0B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 1.25 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 2.90 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HDFGS?
Our models span a range for Hedef Girisim Sermayesi: cautious scenario 2.18 TRY, base 2.90 TRY, optimistic 3.62 TRY per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 1.25 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HDFGS?
Hedef Girisim Sermayesi trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.6 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 2.90 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 2.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 19.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Hedef Girisim Sermayesi?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Investor AB, Brookfield Corporation, KKR & Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hedef Girisim Sermayesi stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 1.25 TRY, calculated fair value 2.90 TRY (+132%), Quality Score 43/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HDFGS calculated?
We run Hedef Girisim Sermayesi through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 2.90 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Hedef Girisim Sermayesi currently trades 132 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was 1.25 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 2.90 TRY, about +132% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hedef Girisim Sermayesi right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (43/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (2.18 TRY). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi
How large is the market capitalisation of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS)?
The market capitalisation of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi is 3.0B TRY (≈ $61.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi is 0.97 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS)?
Earnings per share at Hedef Girisim Sermayesi are 0.7300 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS)?
The dividend yield of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi is 0.0% (payout 0.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS)?
The net margin of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi is 26.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi is 19.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi is 24.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS)?
The operating margin of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi is 64.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS)?
Revenue at Hedef Girisim Sermayesi is growing −48.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +20.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS)?
Earnings per share at Hedef Girisim Sermayesi are growing +79.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Hedef Girisim Sermayesi (HDFGS) generate?
The free cash flow of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi is −47.4M TRY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
Free · no account needed
Watch Hedef Girisim Sermayesi in the live analysis
One click puts Hedef Girisim Sermayesi on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
