EN DE

Hedef Girisim Sermayesi Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. (HDFGS) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · TR · Market cap 3.0B TRY

HG Hedef Girisim Sermayesi Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. HDFGS · IS
Price2.64 TRY
Fair Value2.90 TRY
Upside+9.8%
Quality43/100
Watch Hedef Girisim Sermayesi Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free
Mixed Growth
Highly profitable · 58.3% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
Ranks above peers (10/12)
Wide moat 92/100
Evidence: High Range 2.18 TRY – 3.62 TRY Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 8, 2026

From 9 valuation models · updated yesterday

Share price +1.1% over the past month.

Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Share this valuation: 𝕏 WhatsApp

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

6.03 TRY 0.8485 TRY Fair Value 2.90 TRY May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 0.8485 TRY – 6.03 TRY · fair‑value band 2.18 TRY – 3.62 TRY · the 2.64 TRY price screens below the 2.90 TRY fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Analysis

Hedef Girisim Sermayesi Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. (HDFGS) currently trades at 2.64 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2.90 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 9.8% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Hedef Girisim Sermayesi Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. generated revenue of 1.2B TRY at a net margin of 58.3%. Revenue declined 48.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.2%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 3.6. Fundamentals as of Aug 8, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 2.18 TRY (bear case) to 3.62 TRY (bull case); at 2.64 TRY, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at 10%, HDFGS screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income 2.69 TRY 2.85 TRY 3.16 TRY 76
Gordon GGM 0.0100 TRY 0.0100 TRY 70
P/E Multiple 2.56 TRY 3.41 TRY 4.26 TRY 63
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings 3.93 TRY 8.70 TRY 18.36 TRY 31
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 1.78 TRY 12.43 TRY 17.45 TRY 54
Lynch FV 6.42 TRY 9.17 TRY 11.93 TRY 50
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 0.0100 TRY 0.0100 TRY 70
DDM Multi-Stage 0.0100 TRY 0.0100 TRY 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 2.56 TRY 3.41 TRY 4.26 TRY 63
P/B Multiple 3.34 TRY 4.46 TRY 5.57 TRY 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 1.66 TRY 2.22 TRY 3.31 TRY 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income 2.69 TRY 2.85 TRY 3.16 TRY 76

Widest divergence: Earnings-Based (9.17 TRY) versus Dividend Discount (0.0100 TRY). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 1.2B TRY
Revenue growth (YoY) -48.2%
Net margin 58.3%
Return on equity 19.2%
Free cash flow −47.4M TRY FY2025
P/E ratio 3.6
More key figures
Operating margin 64.9%
EPS (TTM) 0.7300 TRY
EPS growth (YoY) +79.6%

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32

Profitability 42
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 85
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 2
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 75
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 43
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 27
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 29
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Hedef Girisim Sermayesi Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. is a venture capital and private equity firm specializing in seed/startup, middle market in growth capital companies.

Full company description

Hedef Girisim Sermayesi Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. is a venture capital and private equity firm specializing in seed/startup, middle market in growth capital companies. It prefers to invest in materials, industrials, consumer discretionary, financials, capital markets, insurance, information technology, communication services, SaaS, real sector, fintech, software, gaming, real estate, agriculture and food, marketing, press and publishing, education, logistics, medical health products, polycarbonate, polymer, plastic, and plastic-like products, blockchain, crypto and SaaS. The firm prefers to invest in Africa/Middle East with a focus on Turkey. The firm purchases a maximum of 49 percent of the shares. Considering the demands of the applicant companies, investments are made up to an average of USD 250,000 ($0.25 million) for projects at the initial stage, at least USD 500, 000 ($0.5 million) for IT projects with established companies, at least USD 1 million and up to a maximum of USD 5 million for other sectors. The firm typically exits the investments within 5-6 years on average. Hedef Girisim Sermayesi Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. is based in Istanbul, Turkey.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Hedef Girisim Sermayesi Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. reported revenue of 1.1B TRY in FY2025 versus 19.0M TRY in FY2021, a compound +175.9%/yr. Reported net income was 296M TRY in FY2025, compounding +96.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 60/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
1.1B TRY
Latest YoY
+88.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+20.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+81.8%
Avg. growth/yr (13Y)
+56.1%
Revenue +175.9%/yr
FY21 19.0M TRY
FY22 627M TRY
FY23 633M TRY
FY24 584M TRY
FY25 1.1B TRY
Net income +96.9%/yr
FY21 19.7M TRY
FY22 623M TRY
FY23 −464M TRY
FY24 −386M TRY
FY25 296M TRY

Watch HDFGS: get an alert when its fair value changes →

Share or link this analysis
For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hedef Girisim Sermayesi Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HDFGS

Peer Group

Asset Management · 973 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 42 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +10% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 19% · Top 25%
Return on assets 20% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 58% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 65% · Above median
Revenue growth -48% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 3.6× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.80× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 2.58× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 2.7× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 46 · sector 36
FUTURE 0 · sector 6
PAST 77 · sector 26
HEALTH 100 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 70

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Asset Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 8, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Fondul Proprietatea SA FP $0.0420 $0.0800 +90%
BlackRock, Inc BLK $1,036 $504.81 -51%
Blackstone Inc BX $124.56 $16.35 -87%
Investor AB INVEB kr 394.40 kr 788.80 +100%
Brookfield Corporation BN C$62.45 C$10.12 -84%
KKR & Co KKR $100.94 $44.88 -56%
AB Industrivärden INDUA kr 532.50 kr 1,065 +100%
Jio Financial Services Limited JIOFIN ₹242.98 ₹40.19 -83%
Hedef Holding HEDEF 267.25 TRY 320.98 TRY +20%
Bajaj Holdings BAJAJHLDNG ₹10,398 ₹9,202 -12%

Compare Hedef Girisim Sermayesi Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

Free, no sign-up

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Financial Services stocks →

All undervalued stocks TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks

Frequently asked questions

Is Hedef Girisim Sermayesi Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. (HDFGS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 2.90 TRY versus a price of 2.64 TRY, about +10% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of HDFGS?
Our model-based fair value for Hedef Girisim Sermayesi Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. is 2.90 TRY (as of Aug 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 2.64 TRY.
What is the quality score of HDFGS?
Hedef Girisim Sermayesi Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. has a Quality Score of 43/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. (HDFGS)?
Hedef Girisim Sermayesi Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.2B TRY (latest available figure, as of Aug 8, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of HDFGS?
The net profit margin of Hedef Girisim Sermayesi Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. is about 58.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 58.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

14 days Pro free · no card

Track Hedef Girisim Sermayesi Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. and try Pro for 14 days

One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.