Mercury General Corporation (MCY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mercury General Corporation stock $72.25, price $82.61, that is 12.5% below the price, quality 65 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $25.62 – $110.77 · fair‑value band $57.02 – $111.10 · the $82.61 price screens above the $72.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Mercury General Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in writing personal automobile insurance in the United States. It also writes homeowners, commercial automobile, commercial property, mechanical protection, and umbrella insurance products.
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The company's automobile insurance products include collision, property damage, bodily injury, comprehensive, personal injury protection, underinsured and uninsured motorist, and other hazards; and homeowners insurance products comprise dwelling, liability, personal property, and other coverages.
It sells its policies through a network of independent agents and insurance agencies, as well as directly through internet sales portals in Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Texas, and Virginia.
Mercury General Corporation was incorporated in 1961 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.
Stock analysis
Mercury General Corporation (MCY) currently trades at $82.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $72.25, 13% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $88.88 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $82.61 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $20.01, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $57.02 (bear) to $111.10 (bull), the price of $82.61 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Mercury General Corporation reported revenue of $6.0B in FY2025 versus $4.0B in FY2021, a compound +10.7%/yr. Reported net income was $541M in FY2025, compounding +21.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $4.6B Mid · P/E ratio 7.3 · P/S ratio 0.75 · EPS (TTM) $11.61 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 10.5% · Return on equity 25.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −13%, MCY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$57.02Fair Value $72.25Bull$111.10
Price $82.61 · Downside -12.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($8.87 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
BuyGeorge Gwyer BrauneggDirector552 shares at $90.42$49,912Dec 10, 2025
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.1% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+13.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11.1% vs 21.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 11%
2025 sits 92% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−21.0%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −22.8% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Profitability metrics provide some support through an improved combined ratio and policy growth, yet the main weakness is the thin evidence base with insufficient sector-specific data for a clear moat assessment.
Main risk: Larger insurers such as Progressive and GEICO with advanced telematics, direct distribution and greater scale could capture customers or force Mercury General to lower prices and compress margins in its core personal lines.
Bull case: By strengthening relationships with independent agents and adopting data-driven underwriting tools Mercury General could defend its regional position and expand profitably beyond California.
Bear case: If national competitors gain further ground through technology and California regulators impose tighter constraints on pricing or risk selection the company might see sustained margin pressure and limited growth opportunities.
Mercury General improved its combined ratio to 89.9 percent in the second quarter as policy counts grew and rates rose. Net investment income also increased. Will tighter underwriting or stronger investment results matter more for the quarters ahead?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 100 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mercury General Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MCY
Frequently asked questions
Is Mercury General Corporation (MCY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $72.25 versus a price of $82.61, about 13% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MCY?
Our model-based fair value for Mercury General Corporation is $72.25 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $82.61.
What is the quality score of MCY?
Mercury General Corporation has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mercury General Corporation (MCY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $72.25 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $57.02, optimistic scenario $111.10. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mercury General Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $72.25, about 13% lower versus a price of $82.61 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $57.02, optimistic scenario $111.10. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mercury General Corporation (MCY)?
Mercury General Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $6.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Mercury General Corporation pay a dividend?
Mercury General Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 1.54% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Mercury General Corporation (MCY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Mercury General Corporation pays a dividend of $1.27 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.5%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 10, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1986. The payout ratio is 10.9% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 14.62 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Mercury General Corporation (MCY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mercury General Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by -21.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.6 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MCY use?
Our models discount Mercury General Corporation at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.94, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mercury General Corporation that is -21.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mercury General Corporation (MCY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mercury General Corporation grew +9.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -21.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mercury General Corporation (MCY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mercury General Corporation (-21.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mercury General Corporation (MCY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 22.48 %: that much free cash flow Mercury General Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mercury General Corporation (MCY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mercury General Corporation it is $72.25 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $82.61. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Mercury General Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, MCY trades above its calculated fair value: price $82.61, fair value $72.25, a gap of about −13% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MCY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($82.61); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($72.25). For Mercury General Corporation the two are $10.36 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mercury General Corporation worth?
The market values Mercury General Corporation at about $4.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $82.61; our models calculate a fair value of $72.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MCY?
Our models span a range for Mercury General Corporation: cautious scenario $57.02, base $72.25, optimistic $111.10 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $82.61). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MCY?
Mercury General Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.3 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $72.25 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 10.7. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 1.9, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 4.3.
What is the PEG ratio of MCY?
The PEG ratio of Mercury General Corporation is 1.11 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mercury General Corporation (MCY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mercury General Corporation (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 25.5%, debt of 0.24 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MCY from its 52-week high?
Mercury General Corporation trades at $82.61, about 25% below its 52-week high of $110.77 and 2% above the low of $80.91 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $72.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mercury General Corporation?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Chubb Limited, The Progressive Corporation, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mercury General Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $82.61, calculated fair value $72.25 (−13%), Quality Score 65/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MCY calculated?
We run Mercury General Corporation through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $72.25 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Mercury General Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mercury General Corporation (MCY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $82.61. Our model-based fair value is $72.25, about 13% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mercury General Corporation right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($57.02 to $111.10) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Mercury General Corporation (MCY) come from?
Earnings per share at Mercury General Corporation grew +14.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.3 %, EBIT margin +7.9 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Mercury General Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Mercury General Corporation (MCY)?
The market capitalisation of Mercury General Corporation is $4.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mercury General Corporation (MCY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mercury General Corporation is 0.75 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mercury General Corporation (MCY)?
Earnings per share at Mercury General Corporation are $11.61 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mercury General Corporation (MCY)?
The dividend yield of Mercury General Corporation is 1.5% (payout 10.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mercury General Corporation (MCY)?
The net margin of Mercury General Corporation is 10.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mercury General Corporation (MCY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mercury General Corporation is 25.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mercury General Corporation (MCY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mercury General Corporation is 1.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mercury General Corporation (MCY)?
The operating margin of Mercury General Corporation is −0.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mercury General Corporation (MCY)?
Revenue at Mercury General Corporation is growing −12.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mercury General Corporation (MCY)?
Earnings per share at Mercury General Corporation are growing +58.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Mercury General Corporation (MCY) hold?
Mercury General Corporation holds more cash than debt, $729M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026