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Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc (MDGL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc stock $294, price $433, that is 32.1% below the price, quality 37 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Healthcare US

MP Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc

MDGL · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 32% below what the stock costs today.

Upbeat coverage
Revenue last quarter +50% vs. a year ago.
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +747.9 %/yr in USD)
Moderate debt
Insiders bought $35.0M (6M) · sold $12.3M
Fair value $293.70 · Overvalued
Quality 37/100
Loss-making · -10.9% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (3/10)
Narrow moat 26/100 · thin data
Thin data
Estimate
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$602.83 $55.89 Fair Value $293.70 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $55.89 – $602.83 · fair‑value band $220.28 – $367.13 · the $432.60 price screens above the $293.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on delivering novel therapeutics for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) in the United States.

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It offers Rezdiffra, a liver-directed thyroid hormone receptor beta agonist for treating MASH. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in West Conshohocken, Pennsylvania.

Stock analysis

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc (MDGL) currently trades at $432.60, while our estimate is $293.70, 32% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $220.28 (bear) to $367.13 (bull), the price of $432.60 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc reported revenue of $958M in FY2025 versus $37.3K in FY2021, a compound +1,165.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$288M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $12.6B Large · P/S ratio 6.51 · EPS (TTM) $−5.85 · Net margin −10.9% · Return on equity −24.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −60.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin 13.0% · Revenue (TTM) $1.4B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 26 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at −32%, MDGL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $220.28 Fair Value $293.70 Bull $367.13
Price $432.60 · Downside -32.1%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 37/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 31
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 85
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 4
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 72
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 33
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 68
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 24
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 19
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $35.0M, on Nov 6, 2026. Over the same period, 4 people sold shares worth $12.3M.

  • BuyBAKER BROS. ADVISORS LPDirector91,806 shares at $381.49$35.0MNov 6, 2026
  • SaleShannon T KelleyGeneral Counsel4× since Jan 20, 2026: 2,793 shares, avg. $455.57$1.3MNov 6, 2026
  • SaleWilliam John SiboldPresident and CEO, Director5× since Dec 4, 2025: 19,723 shares, avg. $531.52$10.5MSep 11, 2026
  • SaleDavid SoergelChief Medical Officer2× since May 18, 2026: 1,886 shares, avg. $504.76$951,981Jun 1, 2026
  • SaleRichard S LevyDirector2× since Nov 13, 2025: 14,182 shares, avg. $518.75$7.4MMay 22, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleRebecca TaubDirector6× since Dec 10, 2025: 40,676 shares, avg. $532.89$21.7MMar 6, 2026
  • SaleCarole HuntsmanChief Commercial Officer3× since Nov 21, 2025: 3,287 shares, avg. $521.24$1.7MMar 6, 2026
  • SaleMardi DierEVP and CFO3× since Dec 2, 2025: 7,338 shares, avg. $514.15$3.8MMar 6, 2026
  • SalePaul A FriedmanDirector3× since Dec 10, 2025: 49,600 shares, avg. $537.45$26.7MJan 9, 202610b5-1 plan

Plus 8 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 10, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 32/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+432.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+747.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−945,266.2% (2020) → −31.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

MDGL screens overvalued: fair value 32% below the price. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (84 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

Compare Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 849 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 37 · Below median
Fair Value upside −32.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −22.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) −10.9% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 13.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 50.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.56× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 20.92× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 8.83× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)72 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 20

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $916.06 $1,275 +39% vs MDGL
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,468,000 KRW 1,661,000 KRW +13% vs MDGL
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $547.89 $601.80 +10% vs MDGL
Genmab A/S GMAB kr 3,581 kr 3,880 +8% vs MDGL
argenx SE ARGX $971.55 $908.40 −7% vs MDGL
CSL Limited CSL A$201.68 A$181.40 −10% vs MDGL
Moderna, Inc MRNA $250.83 $158.70 −37% vs MDGL
BeOne Medicines AG 6160 HK$252.20 HK$152.80 −39% vs MDGL
Celltrion, Inc 068270 203,000 KRW 74,945 KRW −63% vs MDGL
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $69.45 $19.01 −73% vs MDGL

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Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MDGL

Frequently asked questions

Is Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc (MDGL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $293.70 versus a price of $432.60, about 32% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MDGL?
Our estimate for Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc is $293.70 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $432.60.
What is the quality score of MDGL?
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc (MDGL)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $293.70 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario $220.28, optimistic scenario $367.13. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $293.70, about 32% lower versus a price of $432.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $220.28, optimistic scenario $367.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc (MDGL)?
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc (MDGL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc it is $293.70 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $432.60.
Is Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, MDGL trades above its calculated fair value: price $432.60, fair value $293.70, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MDGL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($432.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($293.70). For Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc the two are $138.90 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc worth?
The market values Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc at about $12.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $432.60; our models calculate a fair value of $293.70 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MDGL?
Our models span a range for Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc: cautious scenario $220.28, base $293.70, optimistic $367.13 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $432.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc (MDGL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −24.8%, debt of 0.56 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MDGL from its 52-week high?
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc trades at $432.60, about 28% below its 52-week high of $602.83 and 9% above the low of $396.32 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $293.70 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Moderna, Inc, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $432.60, calculated fair value $293.70 (−32%), Quality Score 37/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc (MDGL)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $432.60. Our estimate is $293.70, about 32% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($367.13). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc (MDGL)?
The market capitalisation of Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc is $12.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc (MDGL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc is 6.51 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc (MDGL)?
Earnings per share at Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc are $−5.85. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc (MDGL)?
The net margin of Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc is −10.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc (MDGL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc is −24.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc (MDGL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc is −60.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc (MDGL)?
The operating margin of Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc is 13.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc (MDGL)?
Revenue at Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc is growing +50.1% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc (MDGL) generate?
The free cash flow of Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc is −$190M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc (MDGL) carry?
The net debt of Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc is $156M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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