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MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of MoonLake Immunotherapeutics stock $3.02, price $11.53, that is 73.8% below the price, quality 27 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Healthcare US · Based in Switzerland · ISIN KY61559X1045

MI MoonLake Immunotherapeutics logo Thin data Nov 7, 2026

MoonLake Immunotherapeutics

MLTX · US
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 74% below what the stock costs today.

Insiders sold $9.6M (6M)
Fair value $3.02 · Strongly overvalued (−73.8%)
Quality 27/100
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/7)
Narrow moat 8/100 · thin data
Thin data
⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$63.86 $4.69 Fair Value $3.02 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $4.69 – $63.86 · fair‑value band $1.99 – $3.77 · the $11.53 price screens above the $3.02 fair value. As of Nov 7, 2026.

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Company profile

MoonLake Immunotherapeutics, a clinical-stage biotechnology company, focuses on developing therapies for inflammatory skin and joint diseases.

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It develops Sonelokimab, a novel tri-specific IL-17A and IL-17F inhibiting Nanobody for the treatment of inflammatory diseases in dermatology and rheumatology, as well as for hidradenitis suppurativa, psoriatic arthritis, axial spondyloarthritis, palmoplantar pustulosis, and psoriasis.

The company was founded in 2021 and is headquartered in Zug, Switzerland.

Stock analysis

MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) currently trades at $11.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.02, 74% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 92/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: $1.99 (bear) to $3.77 (bull), the price of $11.53 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

MoonLake Immunotherapeutics reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2022. Reported net income was −$227M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $852M Small · EPS (TTM) $−3.66 · Return on equity −67.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −46.0% (5-year average) · Free cash flow −$196M · Net cash $259M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 8 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −74%, MLTX screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.99 Fair Value $3.02 Bull $3.77
Price $11.53 · Downside -73.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) $2.34 $3.55 $4.43 52
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.34 $3.55 $4.43 52

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 27/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 25
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 24
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 90
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 0
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 26
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 14
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 30
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors sold shares worth $9.6M and none bought.

  • SaleKristian ReichChief Scientific Officer6× since Dec 8, 2025: 466,261 shares, avg. $17.45$8.1MJul 27, 2026
  • Saleda Silva Jorge SantosChief Executive Officer, Director4× since Dec 8, 2025: 500,000 shares, avg. $17.46$8.7MJul 10, 2026
  • SaleMatthias BodenstedtChief Financial Officer5× since Apr 9, 2026: 160,870 shares, avg. $19.88$3.2MJun 22, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleMark N LampertDirector, 10% owner3,750,000 shares at $16.79$63.0MMar 31, 2026

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

MLTX screens overvalued: fair value 74% below the price. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

Compare MoonLake Immunotherapeutics with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 557 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 27 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −73.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −53.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 0.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 0.0% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.80× · Pricier than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Incyte Corporation INCY $119.65 $199.23 +67% vs MLTX
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $904.35 $1,275 +41% vs MLTX
Genmab A/S GMAB kr 3,527 kr 3,999 +13% vs MLTX
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,516,000 KRW 1,667,600 KRW +10% vs MLTX
WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 HK$47.62 HK$52.38 +10% vs MLTX
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $547.09 $596.75 +9% vs MLTX
argenx SE ARGX $927.21 $908.40 −2% vs MLTX
CSL Limited CSL A$202.04 A$183.04 −9% vs MLTX
Celltrion, Inc 068270 211,000 KRW 74,945 KRW −64% vs MLTX
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $67.30 $19.01 −72% vs MLTX

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MoonLake Immunotherapeutics: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MoonLake Immunotherapeutics Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MLTX

Frequently asked questions

Is MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.02 versus a price of $11.53, about 74% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MLTX?
Our model-based fair value for MoonLake Immunotherapeutics is $3.02 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.53.
What is the quality score of MLTX?
MoonLake Immunotherapeutics has a Quality Score of 27/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.02 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.99, optimistic scenario $3.77. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MoonLake Immunotherapeutics stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.02, about 74% lower versus a price of $11.53 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.99, optimistic scenario $3.77. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MoonLake Immunotherapeutics it is $3.02 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $11.53. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is MoonLake Immunotherapeutics stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, MLTX trades above its calculated fair value: price $11.53, fair value $3.02, a gap of about −74% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MLTX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.53); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.02). For MoonLake Immunotherapeutics the two are $8.51 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MoonLake Immunotherapeutics worth?
The market values MoonLake Immunotherapeutics at about $852M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $11.53; our models calculate a fair value of $3.02 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MLTX?
Our models span a range for MoonLake Immunotherapeutics: cautious scenario $1.99, base $3.02, optimistic $3.77 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $11.53). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX)?
Balance-sheet figures for MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity −67.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 27/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MLTX from its 52-week high?
MoonLake Immunotherapeutics trades at $11.53, about 48% below its 52-week high of $22.16 and 21% above the low of $9.55 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.02 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MoonLake Immunotherapeutics?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, argenx SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MoonLake Immunotherapeutics stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $11.53, calculated fair value $3.02 (−74%), Quality Score 27/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MLTX calculated?
We run MoonLake Immunotherapeutics through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $3.02 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. MoonLake Immunotherapeutics itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $11.53. Our model-based fair value is $3.02, about 74% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MoonLake Immunotherapeutics right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.77). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (27/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($1.99 to $3.77) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of MoonLake Immunotherapeutics

How large is the market capitalisation of MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX)?
The market capitalisation of MoonLake Immunotherapeutics is $852M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX)?
Earnings per share at MoonLake Immunotherapeutics are $−3.66. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MoonLake Immunotherapeutics is −67.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MoonLake Immunotherapeutics is −46.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much free cash flow does MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) generate?
The free cash flow of MoonLake Immunotherapeutics is −$196M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) hold?
MoonLake Immunotherapeutics holds more cash than debt, $259M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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