Merck KGaA (MRK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Merck KGaA stock €109, price €149, that is 26.6% below the price, quality 63 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €100.78 – €212.35 · fair‑value band €60.18 – €149.72 · the €148.75 price screens above the €109.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Merck KGaA operates as a science and technology company in Europe, North America, Latin America, Middle East and Africa, and the Asia Pacific.
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The Life Science segment offers products, solutions, and services to academic, research and diagnostic labs, biotech, and pharmaceutical companies, as well as the industrial sector; reagents, consumables, devices, instruments, software, and services for research, production, and testing to lab water instruments, microbiology and biomonitoring products, test assays, analytical reagents, and flow cytometry kits and instruments.
This segment also provides traditional and novel therapies, such as ration devices, chromatography resins, single-use systems, process chemicals, and excipients for bioprocessing; contract development, manufacturing and testing services, which supports customers from preclinical phases to commercialization.
The Healthcare segment discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets prescription drugs and biopharmaceuticals to the therapeutic areas of oncology, rare diseases, neurology and immunology, fertility, cardiovascular, and metabolic and endocrinological disorders.
The Electronics segment offers advanced dielectric and metallic materials; photoresist, anti-reflective coating, and material lithography products; clean and selective etch chemistries; materials for chemical-mechanical planarization; high-purity gases for semiconductor manufacturing; and develops and installs delivery equipment for handling of specialty chemicals and gases for semiconductor manufacturing; develops modulating, creating, engineering, and guiding light; and material solutions in liquid crystals, OLED materials, and photoresists.
It has in-licensing agreement with Abbisko Therapeutics Co. Ltd., China on drug candidates for the treatment of tenosynovial giant cell tumor. The company was founded in 1668 and is headquartered in Darmstadt, Germany. Merck KGaA is a subsidiary of E. Merck KG.
Stock analysis
Merck KGaA (MRK) currently trades at €148.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €109.18, 27% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €116.97 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the €148.75 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €44.09, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €60.18 (bear) to €149.72 (bull), the price of €148.75 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Merck KGaA reported revenue of €21.1B in FY2025 versus €19.7B in FY2021, a compound +1.8%/yr. Reported net income was €2.6B in FY2025, compounding −3.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €64.7B Large · P/E ratio 26.9 · P/S ratio 3.06 · EPS (TTM) €5.45 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 11.2% · Return on equity 8.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −6% fair-value upside, at −27%, MRK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€60.18Fair Value €109.18Bull€149.72
Price €148.75 · Downside -26.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€2.78 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.65/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.1% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5.6% vs 8.5%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 19%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.9% a year for the price and +2.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Moderate business quality reflects thin evidence overall, with strength in electronics momentum from the new semiconductor R&D facility but weakness in unproven durable advantages amid acquisition-driven portfolio shifts.
Main risk: Biosimilars could erode revenues and margins in the Healthcare segment once exclusivity for drugs such as Mavenclad ends in key markets from 2026 onward.
Bull case: Growth in the Life Science and Electronics segments, supported by demand for advanced semiconductor materials, could more than offset any Healthcare revenue pressure from patent expiries.
Bear case: If biosimilar competition intensifies and Life Science rivals gain ground, the Healthcare segment could shrink meaningfully while overall group growth slows despite diversification.
Merck KGaA opened a new R&D facility in Wisconsin through EMD Electronics to accelerate work on advanced semiconductor materials. This adds to momentum in the electronics business at a time when the company is also preparing to close its large Bio-Techne acquisition in life sciences. Will the semiconductor investments create more durable growth than the integration and portfolio shifts ahead?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 548 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Above median
Fair Value upside−26.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.1% · Above median
Return on assets5.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)11.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)13.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)3.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.36× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)26.9× · Pricier than median
P/B2.26× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)3.06× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)27.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA12.9× · Cheaper than median
PEG2.15× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 15
FUTURE (revenue growth)17· sector 26
PAST (return on equity)33· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)82· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)30· sector 32
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Merck KGaA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MRK.XETRA
Frequently asked questions
Is Merck KGaA (MRK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €109.18 versus a price of €148.75, about 27% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MRK?
Our model-based fair value for Merck KGaA is €109.18 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €148.75.
What is the quality score of MRK?
Merck KGaA has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Merck KGaA (MRK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €109.18 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €60.18, optimistic scenario €149.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Merck KGaA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €109.18, about 27% lower versus a price of €148.75 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €60.18, optimistic scenario €149.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Merck KGaA (MRK)?
Merck KGaA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €21.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Merck KGaA pay a dividend?
Merck KGaA currently shows a dividend yield of 1.48% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Merck KGaA (MRK) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Merck KGaA pays a dividend of €2.20 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.5%. The last ex-dividend date was Apr 27, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1996. The payout ratio is 40.4% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 8.26 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Merck KGaA (MRK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Merck KGaA would have to grow free cash flow by +14.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.8 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MRK use?
Our models discount Merck KGaA at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.79, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Merck KGaA that is +14.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Merck KGaA (MRK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Merck KGaA grew +3.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +14.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Merck KGaA (MRK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Merck KGaA (+14.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Merck KGaA (MRK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.63 %: that much free cash flow Merck KGaA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Merck KGaA (MRK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Merck KGaA it is €109.18 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of €148.75. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Merck KGaA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, MRK trades above its calculated fair value: price €148.75, fair value €109.18, a gap of about −27% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MRK?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€148.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€109.18). For Merck KGaA the two are €39.57 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Merck KGaA worth?
The market values Merck KGaA at about €64.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is €148.75; our models calculate a fair value of €109.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MRK?
Our models span a range for Merck KGaA: cautious scenario €60.18, base €109.18, optimistic €149.72 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price €148.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MRK?
Merck KGaA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.9 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €109.18 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 25.0. Other multiples: PEG 2.1, P/B 2.3, P/S 3.1, EV/EBITDA 12.9.
What is the PEG ratio of MRK?
The PEG ratio of Merck KGaA is 2.15 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Merck KGaA (MRK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Merck KGaA (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 8.1%, debt of 0.36 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MRK from its 52-week high?
Merck KGaA trades at €148.75, about 2% below its 52-week high of €151.30 and 48% above the low of €100.78 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €109.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Merck KGaA?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Galderma Group, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Merck KGaA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price €148.75, calculated fair value €109.18 (−27%), Quality Score 63/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MRK calculated?
We run Merck KGaA through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €109.18 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Merck KGaA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Merck KGaA (MRK)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €148.75. Our model-based fair value is €109.18, about 27% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Merck KGaA right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€60.18 to €149.72) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Merck KGaA (MRK) come from?
Earnings per share at Merck KGaA grew +8.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.5 %, EBIT margin +2.3 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Merck KGaA
How large is the market capitalisation of Merck KGaA (MRK)?
The market capitalisation of Merck KGaA is €64.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Merck KGaA (MRK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Merck KGaA is 3.06 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Merck KGaA (MRK)?
Earnings per share at Merck KGaA are €5.45 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Merck KGaA (MRK)?
The dividend yield of Merck KGaA is 1.5% (payout 40.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Merck KGaA (MRK)?
The net margin of Merck KGaA is 11.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Merck KGaA (MRK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Merck KGaA is 8.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Merck KGaA (MRK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Merck KGaA is 8.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Merck KGaA (MRK)?
The operating margin of Merck KGaA is 13.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Merck KGaA (MRK)?
Revenue at Merck KGaA is growing +3.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Merck KGaA (MRK)?
Earnings per share at Merck KGaA are growing −24.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Merck KGaA (MRK) carry?
The net debt of Merck KGaA is €9.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026