Provident Agro Tbk (PALM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Provident Agro Tbk stock IDR 321, price IDR 214, upside +50.0%, quality 71 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 2 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 204.00 IDR – 1,163 IDR · fair‑value band 240.68 IDR – 401.14 IDR · the 214.00 IDR price screens below the 320.91 IDR fair value. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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PT Provident Investasi Bersama Tbk, a holding company, engages in direct or indirect investment through subsidiaries. It owns an investment portfolio in natural resources and logistics.
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It is also involved in the mining of gold, silver, copper, nickel, and other important minerals; nickel mining and other minerals, processing, and other related businesses; provides real estate development, warehousing, storage facilities.
The company was formerly known as PT Provident Agro Tbk and changed its name to PT Provident Investasi Bersama Tbk in September 2022. PT Provident Investasi Bersama Tbk was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Provident Agro Tbk (PALM) currently trades at 214.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 320.91 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 33% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: 240.68 IDR (bear) to 401.14 IDR (bull), the price of 214.00 IDR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Provident Agro Tbk reported revenue of 131B IDR in FY2025 versus 317B IDR in FY2021, a compound −19.8%/yr. Reported net income was 1.8T IDR in FY2025, compounding −2.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.4T IDR (≈ $187M) Micro · P/E ratio 6.0 · P/S ratio 3.30 · EPS (TTM) 35.47 IDR · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 54.6% · Return on equity 11.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 81 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 50%, PALM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear240.68 IDRFair Value 320.91 IDRBull401.14 IDR
Price 214.00 IDR · Upside +50.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (27.67 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.39/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−23.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −18.8% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−14.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−15.6% vs 15.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 1,691%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.6%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 587 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+50.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.7% · Above median
Return on assets20.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)54.6% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)100.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)296.3% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.54× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
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Is Provident Agro Tbk (PALM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 320.91 IDR versus a price of 214.00 IDR, about +50% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PALM?
Our model-based fair value for Provident Agro Tbk is 320.91 IDR (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 214.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of PALM?
Provident Agro Tbk has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Provident Agro Tbk (PALM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 320.91 IDR (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario 240.68 IDR, optimistic scenario 401.14 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Provident Agro Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 320.91 IDR, about +50% upside versus a price of 214.00 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 240.68 IDR, optimistic scenario 401.14 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Provident Agro Tbk pay a dividend?
Provident Agro Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of 1.50% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Provident Agro Tbk (PALM) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Provident Agro Tbk pays a dividend of 3.20 IDR per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.5%. The last ex-dividend date was Jun 26, 2026. The payout ratio is 9.0% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 16.63 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Provident Agro Tbk (PALM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Provident Agro Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by -1.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -11.3 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PALM use?
Our models discount Provident Agro Tbk at 13.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.44, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Provident Agro Tbk that is -1.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (13.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Provident Agro Tbk (PALM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Provident Agro Tbk grew -11.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -1.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Provident Agro Tbk (PALM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Provident Agro Tbk (-1.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Provident Agro Tbk (PALM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 24.87 %: that much free cash flow Provident Agro Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Provident Agro Tbk (PALM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Provident Agro Tbk it is 320.91 IDR per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of 214.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models in 2 families (Multiples, Asset-Based).
Is Provident Agro Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, PALM trades below its calculated fair value: price 214.00 IDR, fair value 320.91 IDR, a gap of about +50% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PALM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (214.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (320.91 IDR). For Provident Agro Tbk the two are 106.91 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Provident Agro Tbk worth?
The market values Provident Agro Tbk at about 3.4T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is 214.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 320.91 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PALM?
Our models span a range for Provident Agro Tbk: cautious scenario 240.68 IDR, base 320.91 IDR, optimistic 401.14 IDR per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price 214.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PALM?
Provident Agro Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.0 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 320.91 IDR is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 9.0. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 3.3, EV/EBITDA 6.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Provident Agro Tbk (PALM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Provident Agro Tbk (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 11.7%, debt of 0.54 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PALM from its 52-week high?
Provident Agro Tbk trades at 214.00 IDR, about 52% below its 52-week high of 443.38 IDR and 5% above the low of 204.00 IDR (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 320.91 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Provident Agro Tbk?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Asset Management Ltd, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Provident Agro Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price 214.00 IDR, calculated fair value 320.91 IDR (+50%), Quality Score 71/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PALM calculated?
We run Provident Agro Tbk through 2 models from 2 families: Multiples, Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 320.91 IDR builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Provident Agro Tbk currently trades 33% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Provident Agro Tbk (PALM)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was 214.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 320.91 IDR, about +50% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Provident Agro Tbk right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (240.68 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (71/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Provident Agro Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Provident Agro Tbk (PALM)?
The market capitalisation of Provident Agro Tbk is 3.4T IDR (≈ $187M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Provident Agro Tbk (PALM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Provident Agro Tbk is 3.30 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Provident Agro Tbk (PALM)?
Earnings per share at Provident Agro Tbk are 35.47 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Provident Agro Tbk (PALM)?
The dividend yield of Provident Agro Tbk is 1.5% (payout 9.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Provident Agro Tbk (PALM)?
The net margin of Provident Agro Tbk is 54.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Provident Agro Tbk (PALM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Provident Agro Tbk is 11.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Provident Agro Tbk (PALM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Provident Agro Tbk is 0.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Provident Agro Tbk (PALM)?
The operating margin of Provident Agro Tbk is 100% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Provident Agro Tbk (PALM)?
Revenue at Provident Agro Tbk is growing +296% versus a year earlier (3y avg −23.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Provident Agro Tbk (PALM)?
Earnings per share at Provident Agro Tbk are growing +260% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Provident Agro Tbk (PALM) carry?
The net debt of Provident Agro Tbk is 2.9T IDR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 6, 2026