Provident Agro Tbk (PALM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Provident Agro Tbk IDR 273, price IDR 288, upside -5.3%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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PT Provident Investasi Bersama Tbk, a holding company, engages in direct or indirect investment through subsidiaries. It owns an investment portfolio in natural resources and logistics.
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PT Provident Investasi Bersama Tbk, a holding company, engages in direct or indirect investment through subsidiaries. It owns an investment portfolio in natural resources and logistics. It is also involved in the mining of gold, silver, copper, nickel, and other important minerals; nickel mining and other minerals, processing, and other related businesses; provides real estate development, warehousing, storage facilities. The company was formerly known as PT Provident Agro Tbk and changed its name to PT Provident Investasi Bersama Tbk in September 2022. PT Provident Investasi Bersama Tbk was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Provident Agro Tbk (PALM) currently trades at 288.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 272.77 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 5.6% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 21 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: 204.58 IDR (bear) to 340.97 IDR (bull), the price of 288.00 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Provident Agro Tbk reported revenue of 131B IDR in FY2025 versus 317B IDR in FY2021, a compound −19.8%/yr. Reported net income was 1.8T IDR in FY2025, compounding −2.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 4.5T IDR (≈ $253M) · P/E ratio 0.8 · P/S ratio 11.4 · EPS (TTM) 355.60 IDR · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 92.8% · Return on equity 102% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at −5%, PALM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 204.58 IDRFair Value 272.77 IDRBull 340.97 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (258.75 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−23.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −18.8% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−14.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−16% vs 16%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 1,691%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 656 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Above median
Fair Value upside−5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)102% · Top 25%
Return on assets40% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)93% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)100% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth296% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.54× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
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Is Provident Agro Tbk (PALM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 272.77 IDR versus a price of 288.00 IDR, about −5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of PALM?
Our model-based fair value for Provident Agro Tbk is 272.77 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 288.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of PALM?
Provident Agro Tbk has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Provident Agro Tbk (PALM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 272.77 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario 204.58 IDR, optimistic scenario 340.97 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Provident Agro Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 272.77 IDR, about −5% upside versus a price of 288.00 IDR (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 204.58 IDR, optimistic scenario 340.97 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Provident Agro Tbk pay a dividend?
Provident Agro Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.11% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Provident Agro Tbk (PALM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Provident Agro Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by +1.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -11.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PALM use?
Our models discount Provident Agro Tbk at 13.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.35, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Provident Agro Tbk that is +1.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Provident Agro Tbk (PALM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Provident Agro Tbk grew -11.3 % a year. The price currently implies +1.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Provident Agro Tbk (PALM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Provident Agro Tbk (+1.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Provident Agro Tbk (PALM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 18.48 %: that much free cash flow Provident Agro Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Provident Agro Tbk (PALM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Provident Agro Tbk it is 272.77 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 288.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Provident Agro Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, PALM trades above its calculated fair value: price 288.00 IDR, fair value 272.77 IDR, a gap of about −5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PALM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (288.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (272.77 IDR). For Provident Agro Tbk the two are 15.23 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Provident Agro Tbk worth?
The market values Provident Agro Tbk at about 4.5T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 288.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 272.77 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PALM?
Our models span a range for Provident Agro Tbk: cautious scenario 204.58 IDR, base 272.77 IDR, optimistic 340.97 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 288.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PALM?
Provident Agro Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 272.77 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 1.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Provident Agro Tbk (PALM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Provident Agro Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 102.3%, debt of 0.54 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PALM from its 52-week high?
Provident Agro Tbk trades at 288.00 IDR, about 35% below its 52-week high of 443.38 IDR and 11% above the low of 259.30 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 272.77 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Provident Agro Tbk?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Corporation, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Provident Agro Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 288.00 IDR, calculated fair value 272.77 IDR (−5%), Quality Score 64/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PALM calculated?
We run Provident Agro Tbk through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 272.77 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Provident Agro Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Provident Agro Tbk (PALM)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 288.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 272.77 IDR, about −5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Provident Agro Tbk right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Provident Agro Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Provident Agro Tbk (PALM)?
The market capitalisation of Provident Agro Tbk is 4.5T IDR (≈ $253M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Provident Agro Tbk (PALM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Provident Agro Tbk is 11.4 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Provident Agro Tbk (PALM)?
Earnings per share at Provident Agro Tbk are 355.60 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Provident Agro Tbk (PALM)?
The dividend yield of Provident Agro Tbk is 1.1% (payout 0.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Provident Agro Tbk (PALM)?
The net margin of Provident Agro Tbk is 92.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Provident Agro Tbk (PALM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Provident Agro Tbk is 102% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Provident Agro Tbk (PALM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Provident Agro Tbk is 0.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Provident Agro Tbk (PALM)?
The operating margin of Provident Agro Tbk is 99.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Provident Agro Tbk (PALM)?
Revenue at Provident Agro Tbk is growing +296% versus a year earlier (3y avg −23.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Provident Agro Tbk (PALM)?
Earnings per share at Provident Agro Tbk are growing +260% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Provident Agro Tbk (PALM) carry?
The net debt of Provident Agro Tbk is 2.9T IDR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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