Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Toronto Dominion Bank stock $77.66, price $125, that is 37.6% below the price, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $47.77 – $127.22 · fair‑value band $59.39 – $112.35 · the $124.50 price screens above the $77.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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The Toronto-Dominion Bank, together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in Canada, the United States, and internationally.
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It operates through four segments: Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking; U.S. Retail; Wealth Management and Insurance; and Wholesale Banking.
The company offers personal deposits, such as chequing, savings, and investment products; financing, investment, cash management, international trade, and banking services to businesses; and financing options to customers at point of sale for automotive and recreational vehicle purchases.
It also provides credit cards and payments; real estate secured lending, auto finance, and consumer lending services; point-of-sale payment solutions for large and small businesses; wealth and asset management products, and advice to retail and institutional clients through direct investing, advice-based, and asset management businesses; and property and casualty insurance, as well as life and health insurance products.
The company also provides capital markets, and corporate and investment banking products and services, including underwriting and distribution of new debt and equity issues; advice on strategic acquisitions and divestitures; and trading, funding, and investment services to corporations, governments, and institutions.
The Toronto-Dominion Bank was founded in 1855 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
Stock analysis
Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) currently trades at $124.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $77.66, 37.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $77.65 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $124.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $30.95, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $59.39 (bear) to $112.35 (bull), the price of $124.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Toronto Dominion Bank reported revenue of $116B in FY2025 versus $47.7B in FY2021, a compound +24.8%/yr. Reported net income was $20.5B in FY2025, compounding +9.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $196B Large · P/E ratio 18.5 · P/S ratio 3.27 · EPS (TTM) $6.74 · Dividend yield 3.5% · Net margin 17.7% · Return on equity 12.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 69 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 59% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −38%, TD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$59.39Fair Value $77.66Bull$112.35
Price $124.50 · Downside -37.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.41 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.0% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+17.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12.7% vs 10.8%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 21%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Moderate moat from organization capital and governance provides stability, yet limited innovation and thin alignment signals constrain broader advantages.
Main risk: Persistent AML compliance failures could trigger further penalties, an asset cap on US retail operations and ongoing growth restrictions.
Bull case: TD could complete AML remediation successfully, lift the asset cap and leverage improved controls to support steadier US expansion alongside its AI initiatives.
Bear case: Prolonged regulatory constraints and remediation expenses could continue limiting US retail growth and pressure margins in core banking activities.
TD is deploying multi-agent AI to draft commercial credit memos in under thirty minutes instead of days. Credit teams can shift from document handling to deeper client analysis and risk evaluation. Will this scale precise decision-making across thousands of deals each year or create blind spots where automated summaries miss key context?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Diversified · 46 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside−37.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.8% · Above median
Return on assets1.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)26.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)38.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)11.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.37× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)18.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.53× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)3.22× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA4.8× · Cheapest 25%
PEG1.01× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)58· sector 36
PAST (return on equity)51· sector 47
HEALTH (low debt)82· sector 40
DIVIDEND (yield)70· sector 67
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Toronto Dominion Bank Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TD
Frequently asked questions
Is Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $77.66 versus a price of $124.50, about 38% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TD?
Our model-based fair value for Toronto Dominion Bank is $77.66 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $124.50.
What is the quality score of TD?
Toronto Dominion Bank has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Toronto Dominion Bank (TD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $77.66 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $59.39, optimistic scenario $112.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Toronto Dominion Bank stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $77.66, about 38% lower versus a price of $124.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $59.39, optimistic scenario $112.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Toronto Dominion Bank (TD)?
Toronto Dominion Bank reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $60.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Toronto Dominion Bank pay a dividend?
Toronto Dominion Bank currently shows a dividend yield of 3.48% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Toronto Dominion Bank (TD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Toronto Dominion Bank it is $77.66 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of $124.50. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Toronto Dominion Bank stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, TD trades above its calculated fair value: price $124.50, fair value $77.66, a gap of about −38% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($124.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($77.66). For Toronto Dominion Bank the two are $46.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Toronto Dominion Bank worth?
The market values Toronto Dominion Bank at about $196B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is $124.50; our models calculate a fair value of $77.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TD?
Our models span a range for Toronto Dominion Bank: cautious scenario $59.39, base $77.66, optimistic $112.35 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price $124.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TD?
Toronto Dominion Bank trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.5 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $77.66 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 1.5, P/S 3.2, EV/EBITDA 4.8.
What is the PEG ratio of TD?
The PEG ratio of Toronto Dominion Bank is 1.01 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Toronto Dominion Bank (TD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Toronto Dominion Bank (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 12.8%, debt of 0.37 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TD from its 52-week high?
Toronto Dominion Bank trades at $124.50, about 2% below its 52-week high of $127.22 and 59% above the low of $78.08 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $77.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Toronto Dominion Bank?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, China Construction Bank Corporation, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, Agricultural Bank of China Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Toronto Dominion Bank stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price $124.50, calculated fair value $77.66 (−38%), Quality Score 52/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TD calculated?
We run Toronto Dominion Bank through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $77.66, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Toronto Dominion Bank itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Toronto Dominion Bank (TD)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was $124.50. Our model-based fair value is $77.66, about 38% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Toronto Dominion Bank right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($112.35). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($59.39 to $112.35) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) come from?
Earnings per share at Toronto Dominion Bank grew +6.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.4 %, EBIT margin −6.0 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Toronto Dominion Bank
How large is the market capitalisation of Toronto Dominion Bank (TD)?
The market capitalisation of Toronto Dominion Bank is $196B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Toronto Dominion Bank (TD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Toronto Dominion Bank is 3.27 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Toronto Dominion Bank (TD)?
Earnings per share at Toronto Dominion Bank are $6.74 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Toronto Dominion Bank (TD)?
The dividend yield of Toronto Dominion Bank is 3.5% (payout 64.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Toronto Dominion Bank (TD)?
The net margin of Toronto Dominion Bank is 17.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Toronto Dominion Bank (TD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Toronto Dominion Bank is 12.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Toronto Dominion Bank (TD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Toronto Dominion Bank is 0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Toronto Dominion Bank (TD)?
The operating margin of Toronto Dominion Bank is 38.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Toronto Dominion Bank (TD)?
Revenue at Toronto Dominion Bank is growing +11.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +24.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Toronto Dominion Bank (TD)?
Earnings per share at Toronto Dominion Bank are growing +45.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) generate?
The free cash flow of Toronto Dominion Bank is −$71.8B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) carry?
The net debt of Toronto Dominion Bank is $547B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 1, 2026