Trilogy Metals Inc (TMQ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Trilogy Metals Inc stock $1.70, price $2.15, that is 20.9% below the price, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.
Trilogy Metals Inc. engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties in the United States. It primarily explores copper, cobalt, lead, zinc, gold, and silver properties.
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The company principally holds interests in the Upper Kobuk mineral projects that include the Arctic, which contains polymetallic volcanogenic massive sulfide deposits; and Bornite that contains carbonate-hosted copper-cobalt deposits covering an area of approximately 448,217 acres located in the Ambler mining district in Northwest Alaska.
The company was formerly known as NovaCopper Inc. and changed its name to Trilogy Metals Inc. in September 2016. Trilogy Metals Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock analysis
Trilogy Metals Inc (TMQ) currently trades at $2.15, while our estimate is $1.70, 21% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.
Scenario range: $1.27 (bear) to $2.12 (bull), the price of $2.15 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Trilogy Metals Inc reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$42.2M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $371M Small · EPS (TTM) $−0.2900 · Return on equity −39.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −5.2% (5-year average) · Free cash flow −$3.2M · Net cash $51.5M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 11 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 69% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −21%, TMQ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value
Bear$1.27Fair Value $1.70Bull$2.12
Price $2.15 · Downside -20.9%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality50/100
It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.
Profitability0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth25
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow50
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength100
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment94
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility9
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum2
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
SaleSouth32 International Investment Holdings Proprietary Ltd10% owner8,215,570 shares at $2.17$17.8MAug 28, 2026
SaleWilliam L. Iggiagruk HensleyDirector2× since Feb 26, 2026: 75,107 shares, avg. $4.43$332,471May 8, 2026
SaleGregory A. LangDirector70,000 shares at $4.76$333,100Dec 5, 2025
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.31/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+56.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+50.2%
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−384.0% (2014) → −143.6% (2019)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 577 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/6 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−20.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−26.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)0.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)0.0% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
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Is Trilogy Metals Inc (TMQ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $1.70 versus a price of $2.15, about 21% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TMQ?
Our estimate for Trilogy Metals Inc is $1.70 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.15.
What is the quality score of TMQ?
Trilogy Metals Inc has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Trilogy Metals Inc (TMQ)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $1.70 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario $1.27, optimistic scenario $2.12. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Trilogy Metals Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $1.70, about 21% lower versus a price of $2.15 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.27, optimistic scenario $2.12. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Trilogy Metals Inc (TMQ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Trilogy Metals Inc it is $1.70 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $2.15.
Is Trilogy Metals Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, TMQ trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.15, fair value $1.70, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TMQ?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.70). For Trilogy Metals Inc the two are $0.4500 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Trilogy Metals Inc worth?
The market values Trilogy Metals Inc at about $371M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $2.15; our models calculate a fair value of $1.70 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TMQ?
Our models span a range for Trilogy Metals Inc: cautious scenario $1.27, base $1.70, optimistic $2.12 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $2.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Trilogy Metals Inc (TMQ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Trilogy Metals Inc (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −39.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TMQ from its 52-week high?
Trilogy Metals Inc trades at $2.15, about 69% below its 52-week high of $6.89 and 6% above the low of $2.02 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.70 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Trilogy Metals Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BHP Group, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Trilogy Metals Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $2.15, calculated fair value $1.70 (−21%), Quality Score 50/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Trilogy Metals Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Trilogy Metals Inc (TMQ)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $2.15. Our estimate is $1.70, about 21% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Trilogy Metals Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Trilogy Metals Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Trilogy Metals Inc (TMQ)?
The market capitalisation of Trilogy Metals Inc is $371M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Trilogy Metals Inc (TMQ)?
Earnings per share at Trilogy Metals Inc are $−0.2900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Trilogy Metals Inc (TMQ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Trilogy Metals Inc is −39.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Trilogy Metals Inc (TMQ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Trilogy Metals Inc is −5.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much free cash flow does Trilogy Metals Inc (TMQ) generate?
The free cash flow of Trilogy Metals Inc is −$3.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Trilogy Metals Inc (TMQ) hold?
Trilogy Metals Inc holds more cash than debt, $51.5M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 10, 2026
