Vericel Corp Ord (VCEL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Vericel Corp Ord stock $6.16, price $54.62, that is 88.7% below the price, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.65 – $61.80 · fair‑value band $4.63 – $7.69 · the $54.62 price screens above the $6.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Vericel Corporation, a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, engages in the research, development, manufacture, and distribution of cellular therapies and specialty biologic products for sports medicine and severe burn care markets in North America.
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The company markets autologous cell therapy products comprising MACI, an autologous cultured chondrocytes on porcine collagen membrane for the repair of symptomatic, and single or multiple full-thickness cartilage defects of the knee; Epicel, a permanent skin replacement humanitarian use device for the treatment of adult and pediatric patients with deep-dermal or full-thickness burns; and NexoBrid, a biological orphan product for eschar removal in adults and pediatric patients with deep partial-thickness and/or full-thickness thermal burns.
Vericel Corporation was formerly known as Aastrom Biosciences, Inc. and changed its name to Vericel Corporation in November 2014. The company was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Burlington, Massachusetts.
Stock analysis
Vericel Corp Ord (VCEL) currently trades at $54.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.16, 89% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $8.92 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the $54.62 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.23, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $4.63 (bear) to $7.69 (bull), the price of $54.62 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Vericel Corp Ord reported revenue of $276M in FY2025 versus $156M in FY2021, a compound +15.3%/yr. Reported net income was $16.5M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.8B Mid · P/E ratio 85.3 · P/S ratio 8.58 · EPS (TTM) $0.6400 · Net margin 10.3% · Return on equity 9.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin 14.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 86% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −89%, VCEL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($2.23 to $30.67). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$4.63Fair Value $6.16Bull$7.69
Price $54.62 · Downside -88.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5488 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 8 officers or directors sold shares worth $5.3M and none bought.
SaleRobert L Zerbe MdDirector5,500 shares at $49.12$270,175Nov 5, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJonathan SiegalPrincipal Accounting Officer4× since May 6, 2026: 13,587 shares, avg. $44.90$610,112Nov 5, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleSean C. FlynnChief Legal Officer4× since Mar 2, 2026: 66,421 shares, avg. $42.46$2.8MNov 5, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleKevin F McLaughlinDirector4× since Nov 10, 2025: 28,000 shares, avg. $37.65$1.1MAug 12, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMichael HalpinChief Operating Officer5× since Nov 11, 2025: 42,947 shares, avg. $40.66$1.7MAug 3, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJonathan Mark HopperChief Medical Officer4× since Dec 2, 2025: 19,499 shares, avg. $40.48$789,304Jun 26, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJoseph Anthony Mara JrChief Financial Officer2× since May 7, 2026: 10,000 shares, avg. $42.63$426,250Jun 26, 202610b5-1 plan
SalePaul K WottonDirector2× since Dec 2, 2025: 15,000 shares, avg. $34.46$516,925May 11, 2026
SaleHeidi HagenDirector15,000 shares at $32.41$486,150Mar 23, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 13 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +18.4% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+36.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+36.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 4%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+43.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+15.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +39.8% a year for the price and +12.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (88 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 558 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−88.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.4% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)10.3% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)14.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)26.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.05× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vericel Corp Ord Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VCEL
Frequently asked questions
Is Vericel Corp Ord (VCEL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.16 versus a price of $54.62, about 89% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VCEL?
Our model-based fair value for Vericel Corp Ord is $6.16 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $54.62.
What is the quality score of VCEL?
Vericel Corp Ord has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vericel Corp Ord (VCEL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.16 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.63, optimistic scenario $7.69. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vericel Corp Ord stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.16, about 89% lower versus a price of $54.62 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.63, optimistic scenario $7.69. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vericel Corp Ord (VCEL)?
Vericel Corp Ord reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $324M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Vericel Corp Ord (VCEL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Vericel Corp Ord would have to grow free cash flow by +43.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.3 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VCEL use?
Our models discount Vericel Corp Ord at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.06, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Vericel Corp Ord that is +43.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Vericel Corp Ord (VCEL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Vericel Corp Ord grew +17.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +43.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Vericel Corp Ord (VCEL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Vericel Corp Ord (+43.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Vericel Corp Ord (VCEL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.89 %: that much free cash flow Vericel Corp Ord produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Vericel Corp Ord (VCEL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vericel Corp Ord it is $6.16 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $54.62. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Vericel Corp Ord stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, VCEL trades above its calculated fair value: price $54.62, fair value $6.16, a gap of about −89% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VCEL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($54.62); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.16). For Vericel Corp Ord the two are $48.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vericel Corp Ord worth?
The market values Vericel Corp Ord at about $2.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $54.62; our models calculate a fair value of $6.16 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VCEL?
Our models span a range for Vericel Corp Ord: cautious scenario $4.63, base $6.16, optimistic $7.69 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $54.62). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VCEL?
Vericel Corp Ord trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 85.3 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $6.16 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 7.8, P/S 8.6, EV/EBITDA 66.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vericel Corp Ord (VCEL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vericel Corp Ord (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 9.4%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VCEL from its 52-week high?
Vericel Corp Ord trades at $54.62, at its 52-week high of $54.62 and 86% above the low of $29.34 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.16 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vericel Corp Ord?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, argenx SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vericel Corp Ord stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $54.62, calculated fair value $6.16 (−89%), Quality Score 61/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VCEL calculated?
We run Vericel Corp Ord through 23 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $6.16 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Vericel Corp Ord itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vericel Corp Ord (VCEL)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $54.62. Our model-based fair value is $6.16, about 89% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vericel Corp Ord right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($7.69). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Vericel Corp Ord
How large is the market capitalisation of Vericel Corp Ord (VCEL)?
The market capitalisation of Vericel Corp Ord is $2.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vericel Corp Ord (VCEL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vericel Corp Ord is 8.58 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vericel Corp Ord (VCEL)?
Earnings per share at Vericel Corp Ord are $0.6400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 85.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Vericel Corp Ord (VCEL)?
The net margin of Vericel Corp Ord is 10.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vericel Corp Ord (VCEL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vericel Corp Ord is 9.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vericel Corp Ord (VCEL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vericel Corp Ord is −1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vericel Corp Ord (VCEL)?
The operating margin of Vericel Corp Ord is 14.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vericel Corp Ord (VCEL)?
Revenue at Vericel Corp Ord is growing +26.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vericel Corp Ord (VCEL)?
Earnings per share at Vericel Corp Ord are growing +170% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Vericel Corp Ord (VCEL) hold?
Vericel Corp Ord holds more cash than debt, $1.8M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 8, 2026