Vericel Corporation (VCEL) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $2.1B
Vericel Corporation
VCEL · US
Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 22, 2026, revised from $6.18 to $5.50 (−11.0%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −4.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 88% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.87). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.65 – $67.81 · fair‑value band $5.14 – $6.87 · the $45.09 price screens above the $5.50 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
Analysis
Vericel Corporation (VCEL) currently trades at $45.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.50, implying the stock looks roughly 87.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Vericel Corporation generated revenue of $292M at a net margin of 7.4%. Revenue grew 30.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $1.8M. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $5.14 (bear case) to $6.87 (bull case); at $45.09, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -43% fair-value upside, at -88%, VCEL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($15.03) versus Economic Profit ($3.68). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Vericel Corporation, a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, engages in the research, development, manufacture, and distribution of cellular therapies and specialty biologic products for sports medicine and severe burn care markets in North America.
Full company description
Vericel Corporation, a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, engages in the research, development, manufacture, and distribution of cellular therapies and specialty biologic products for sports medicine and severe burn care markets in North America. The company markets autologous cell therapy products comprising MACI, an autologous cultured chondrocytes on porcine collagen membrane for the repair of symptomatic, and single or multiple full-thickness cartilage defects of the knee; Epicel, a permanent skin replacement humanitarian use device for the treatment of adult and pediatric patients with deep-dermal or full-thickness burns; and NexoBrid, a biological orphan product for eschar removal in adults and pediatric patients with deep partial-thickness and/or full-thickness thermal burns. Vericel Corporation was formerly known as Aastrom Biosciences, Inc. and changed its name to Vericel Corporation in November 2014. The company was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Burlington, Massachusetts.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Vericel Corporation reported revenue of $276M in FY2025 versus $156M in FY2021, a compound +15.3%/yr. Reported net income was $16.5M in FY2025.
VCEL screens 88% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 603 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $486.03 | $278.78 | -43% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $664.45 | $594.40 | -11% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,368,000 KRW | 1,091,384 KRW | -20% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 175,800 KRW | 76,325 KRW | -57% |
| WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 | HK$39.54 | HK$30.42 | -23% |
| Innovent Biologics, Inc 1801 | HK$86.70 | HK$19.66 | -77% |
| Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited 1177 | HK$5.26 | HK$3.36 | -36% |
| ALTEOGEN Inc 196170 | 276,500 KRW | 44,444 KRW | -84% |
| RemeGen Co 688331 | ¥134.02 | ¥26.99 | -80% |
| Biocon Limited BIOCON | ₹440.70 | ₹57.36 | -87% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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