X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc (XFOR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc stock $1.31, price $3.18, that is 58.8% below the price, quality 32 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
X4 Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the research, development, and commercialization of novel therapeutics for the treatment of rare diseases of the immune system.
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It offers XOLREMDI, an orally small-molecule selective antagonist of chemokine receptor CXCR4, which is in phase 3 clinical trial for the treatment of patients with warts, hypogammaglobulinemia, infections, and myelokathexis syndrome.
It has a license agreement with Abbisko Therapeutics Co Ltd. to manufacture and distribute XOLREMDI in mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau; Norgine to develop, manufacture, and commercialize mavorixafor in Europe, Australia, and New Zealand; and Genzyme Corporation for CXCR4 receptor to develop and commercialize products containing licensed compounds for all therapeutic, prophylactic and diagnostic uses.
The company is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.
Stock analysis
X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc (XFOR) currently trades at $3.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.31, 59% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: $0.8670 (bear) to $1.64 (bull), the price of $3.18 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc reported revenue of $35.1M in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$79.2M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $402M Small · P/E ratio 5.6 · P/S ratio 20.5 · EPS (TTM) $0.5700 · Return on equity −113% · Return on assets (EBIT) −49.7% (5-year average) · Operating margin −186% · Revenue (TTM) $15.8M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 9 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −59%, XFOR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$0.8670Fair Value $1.31Bull$1.64
Price $3.18 · Downside -58.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4888 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham)$1.02$1.54$1.9354
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$1.02$1.54$1.9354
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $11,884, on Oct 16, 2026. Over the same period, 3 people sold shares worth $462,547.
BuyAdam R CraigExecutive Chairman, Director4,600 shares at $2.58$11,884Oct 16, 2026
SaleDavid KirskeChief Financial Officer3× since May 12, 2026: 37,271 shares, avg. $3.83$142,814Oct 1, 2026
SaleAdam R CraigExecutive Chairman, Director47,436 shares at $4.44$210,616Aug 12, 2026
SaleJohn VolponePresident24,576 shares at $4.44$109,117Aug 12, 2026
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.30/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1,273.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+63.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+39.0%
’18
’19
’20
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1,995.8% (2020) → −247.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 558 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−58.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−27.3% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)−186.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)346.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.41× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)5.6× · Cheapest 25%
P/B2.16× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)25.35× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)80· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 22
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc (XFOR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.31 versus a price of $3.18, about 59% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of XFOR?
Our model-based fair value for X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc is $1.31 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.18.
What is the quality score of XFOR?
X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc (XFOR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.31 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.8670, optimistic scenario $1.64. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.31, about 59% lower versus a price of $3.18 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.8670, optimistic scenario $1.64. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc (XFOR)?
X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $15.8M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc (XFOR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc it is $1.31 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $3.18. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, XFOR trades above its calculated fair value: price $3.18, fair value $1.31, a gap of about −59% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of XFOR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.18); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.31). For X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc the two are $1.87 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc worth?
The market values X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc at about $402M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $3.18; our models calculate a fair value of $1.31 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about XFOR?
Our models span a range for X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc: cautious scenario $0.8670, base $1.31, optimistic $1.64 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $3.18). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of XFOR?
X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.6 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.31 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.2, P/S 25.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc (XFOR)?
Balance-sheet figures for X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity −113.1%, debt of 0.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is XFOR from its 52-week high?
X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc trades at $3.18, about 32% below its 52-week high of $4.67 and 30% above the low of $2.45 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.31 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, argenx SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $3.18, calculated fair value $1.31 (−59%), Quality Score 32/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of XFOR calculated?
We run X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $1.31 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc (XFOR)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $3.18. Our model-based fair value is $1.31, about 59% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.64). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.8670 to $1.64) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc (XFOR)?
The market capitalisation of X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc is $402M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc (XFOR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc is 20.5 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc (XFOR)?
Earnings per share at X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc are $0.5700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc (XFOR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc is −113% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc (XFOR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc is −49.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc (XFOR)?
The operating margin of X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc is −186% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc (XFOR)?
Revenue at X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc is growing +346% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc (XFOR) generate?
The free cash flow of X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc is −$88.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc (XFOR) hold?
X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc holds more cash than debt, $140M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 7, 2026
