X4 Pharmaceuticals, Inc (XFOR) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $386M
X4 Pharmaceuticals, Inc
XFOR · US
Fair value as of: Jul 25, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price +17.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 69% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.78). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (27/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($0.9350 to $1.78) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.42 – $285.00 · fair‑value band $0.9350 – $1.78 · the $4.64 price screens above the $1.42 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
Analysis
X4 Pharmaceuticals, Inc (XFOR) currently trades at $4.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.42, implying the stock looks roughly 69.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $9.0M. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $140M. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.9350 (bear case) to $1.78 (bull case); at $4.64, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 244% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -43% fair-value upside, at -69%, XFOR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 32 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
X4 Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the research, development, and commercialization of novel therapeutics for the treatment of rare diseases of the immune system.
Full company description
X4 Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the research, development, and commercialization of novel therapeutics for the treatment of rare diseases of the immune system. It offers XOLREMDI, an orally small-molecule selective antagonist of chemokine receptor CXCR4, which is in phase 3 clinical trial for the treatment of patients with warts, hypogammaglobulinemia, infections, and myelokathexis syndrome. It has a license agreement with Abbisko Therapeutics Co Ltd. to manufacture and distribute XOLREMDI in mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau; Norgine to develop, manufacture, and commercialize mavorixafor in Europe, Australia, and New Zealand; and Genzyme Corporation for CXCR4 receptor to develop and commercialize products containing licensed compounds for all therapeutic, prophylactic and diagnostic uses. The company is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
X4 Pharmaceuticals, Inc reported revenue of $35.1M in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$79.2M in FY2025.
XFOR screens 69% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 601 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 25, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $486.03 | $278.78 | -43% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $664.45 | $594.40 | -11% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,368,000 KRW | 1,091,384 KRW | -20% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 175,800 KRW | 76,325 KRW | -57% |
| WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 | HK$39.54 | HK$30.42 | -23% |
| Innovent Biologics, Inc 1801 | HK$86.70 | HK$19.66 | -77% |
| Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited 1177 | HK$5.26 | HK$3.36 | -36% |
| ALTEOGEN Inc 196170 | 276,500 KRW | 44,444 KRW | -84% |
| RemeGen Co 688331 | ¥134.02 | ¥26.99 | -80% |
| Biocon Limited BIOCON | ₹440.70 | ₹57.36 | -87% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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