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Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd (000638) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Jun 3, 2026: fair value of Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd ¥0.13, price ¥0.89, upside -85.4%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Healthcare · CN · ISIN CNE0000008Y5

VU Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd

000638 · SHE

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value ¥0.1300 · Strongly overvalued (−85.4%)
!Quality 40/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +17.3 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -34.7% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/11)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on dividend: 11 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

¥11.55 ¥0.8900 Fair Value ¥0.1300 Dec 2020 Jun 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥0.8900 – ¥11.55 · fair‑value band ¥0.1000 – ¥0.2000 · the ¥0.8900 price screens above the ¥0.1300 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Vanfund Urban Investment and Development Co., Ltd. engages in business related to military and agricultural industry in China.

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Vanfund Urban Investment and Development Co., Ltd. engages in business related to military and agricultural industry in China. The company offers integrated circuits and modules for use in advanced radar, high-power semiconductor integrated circuits, aerospace, satellite communications, lasers, and other aerospace and military industries; and rice under the Chongmi brand. In addition, it is involved in the research and development, and production of vaccines; post-vaccination immune effect evaluation activities; real estate development; sales of agricultural and sideline products; provision of Leasing and business services; and grain processing and sales business. The company was formerly known as Vanfund Real Estate Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Vanfund Urban Investment and Development Co., Ltd. in April 2013. Vanfund Urban Investment and Development Co., Ltd. was founded in 1996 and is based in Beijing, China.

Stock analysis

Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd (000638) currently trades at ¥0.8900, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.1300, 85.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 89/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: ¥0.1000 (bear) to ¥0.2000 (bull), the price of ¥0.8900 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd reported revenue of 247M CNY in FY2025 versus 322M CNY in FY2021, a compound −6.5%/yr. Reported net income was −50.8M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 277M CNY (≈ $41.4M) · P/S ratio 1.83 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.1700 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin −20.6% · Return on equity −56.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.2% · Operating margin −84.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 89% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at −85%, 000638 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥0.1000 Fair Value ¥0.1300 Bull ¥0.2000
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) ¥0.1400 ¥0.1900 ¥0.2900 53
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥0.1400 ¥0.1900 ¥0.2900 53

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15

Profitability 16
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 25
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 38
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 89
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 0
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 30/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−37.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.3% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−19.6% (2020) → −8.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

000638 screens overvalued: fair value 85% below the price. Compare with Veeva Systems Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Health Information Services · 128 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −85.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −5.6% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −34.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −84.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −94.1% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.08× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Health Information Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.46× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.27× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 41
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 8
HEALTH (low debt)96 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)11 · sector 44

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Health Information Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Veeva Systems Inc VEEV $278.57 $306.43 +10%
Pro Medicus Limited PME A$161.00 A$84.62 −47%
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc BTSG $56.54 $25.86 −54%
Hinge Health, Inc HNGE $95.57 $51.25 −46%
HealthEquity, Inc HQY $88.44 $97.28 +10%
Waystar Holding WAY $24.70 $27.17 +10%
Doximity, Inc DOCS $26.35 $31.41 +19%
XtalPi Holdings 2228 HK$7.75 HK$1.50 −81%
Inventurus Knowledge Solutions Limited IKS ₹1,779 ₹1,883 +6%
Privia Health Group PRVA $19.62 $5.02 −74%

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Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd · Fair Value
¥0.1300 −85%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000638

Frequently asked questions

Is Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd (000638) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥0.1300 versus the last price from Jun 3, 2026 of ¥0.8900, about −85% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 000638?
Our model-based fair value for Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd is ¥0.1300 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jun 3, 2026): ¥0.8900.
What is the quality score of 000638?
Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd (000638)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥0.1300 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥0.1000, optimistic scenario ¥0.2000. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥0.1300, about −85% upside versus the last price from Jun 3, 2026 of ¥0.8900 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥0.1000, optimistic scenario ¥0.2000. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd (000638)?
Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 151M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.57% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd (000638)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd it is ¥0.1300 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥0.8900. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 000638 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥0.8900, fair value ¥0.1300, a gap of about −85% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000638?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥0.8900); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥0.1300). For Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd the two are ¥0.7600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd worth?
The market values Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd at about 277M CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥0.8900; our models calculate a fair value of ¥0.1300 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000638?
Our models span a range for Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥0.1000, base ¥0.1300, optimistic ¥0.2000 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥0.8900). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd (000638)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −56.5%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000638 from its 52-week high?
Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd trades at ¥0.8900, about 89% below its 52-week high of ¥7.90 and at the low of ¥0.8900 (as of Jun 3, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥0.1300 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Veeva Systems Inc, Pro Medicus Limited, BrightSpring Health Services, Inc, Hinge Health, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥0.8900, calculated fair value ¥0.1300 (−85%), Quality Score 40/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000638 calculated?
We run Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥0.1300, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd (000638)?
The latest price we hold is from Jun 3, 2026 and stands at ¥0.8900. Our model-based fair value is ¥0.1300, about −85% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥0.2000). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (¥0.1000 to ¥0.2000) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd (000638)?
The market capitalisation of Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd is 277M CNY (≈ $41.4M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd (000638)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd is 1.83 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd (000638)?
Earnings per share at Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd are ¥−0.1700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd (000638)?
The dividend yield of Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd is 0.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd (000638)?
The net margin of Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd is −20.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd (000638)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd is −56.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd (000638)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd is −0.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd (000638)?
The operating margin of Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd is −84.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd (000638)?
Revenue at Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd is growing −94.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd (000638) generate?
The free cash flow of Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd is −44.4M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd (000638) carry?
The net debt of Vanfund Urban Investment & Development Co Ltd is 25.1M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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