Hysan Development Co Ltd (0014) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$17.0B
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 21, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −4.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 17% overvalued on our models.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$10.27 to HK$25.05) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$9.08 – HK$22.78 · fair‑value band HK$10.27 – HK$25.05 · the HK$16.84 price screens above the HK$13.90 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.
Analysis
Hysan Development Co Ltd (0014) currently trades at HK$16.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$13.90, implying the stock looks roughly 17.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Hysan Development Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$2.9B at a net margin of 29.1%. Revenue declined 39.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.4%. Net debt stands at HK$34.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$10.27 (bear case) to HK$25.05 (bull case); at HK$16.84, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 15% fair-value upside, at -17%, 0014 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$42.70) versus Growth DCF (HK$5.16). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hysan Development Company Limited investment portfolio is set predominantly in Lee Gardens, a unique part of Hong Kong's renowned commercial heart in Causeway Bay. Within our approximately 5.5 million square feet of retail, office and residential tenant space, we strive to become partners with our tenants and create a sustainable ecosystem.
Full company description
Hysan Development Company Limited investment portfolio is set predominantly in Lee Gardens, a unique part of Hong Kong's renowned commercial heart in Causeway Bay. Within our approximately 5.5 million square feet of retail, office and residential tenant space, we strive to become partners with our tenants and create a sustainable ecosystem. Our medium-to-long term strategy involves the continued refinement and expansion of our Core in Lee Gardens, as well as investment in growth which will deliver a more balanced and diversified portfolio for Hysan. Hysan Development Company Limited was incorporated in 1923 in Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hysan Development Co Ltd reported revenue of HK$3.6B in FY2025 versus HK$3.7B in FY2021, a compound −0.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$840M in FY2025, compounding −11.7%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +0.3 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.3 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
0014 screens 17% overvalued. Compare with Plaza S.A →
Peer Group
Real Estate Services · 541 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plaza S.A MALLPLAZA | 3,989 CLP | 4,571 CLP | +15% |
| PT Solusi Tunas Pratama Tbk SUPR | 43,850 IDR | 15,049 IDR | -66% |
| Cencosud Shopping S.A CENCOMALLS | 2,412 CLP | 2,976 CLP | +23% |
| PT Sarana Menara Nusantara Tbk. owns and TOWR | 422.00 IDR | 1,012 IDR | +140% |
| PT Metropolitan Kentjana Tbk MKPI | 22,000 IDR | 19,160 IDR | -13% |
| PT Bangun Kosambi Sukses Tbk, CBDK | 3,610 IDR | 3,464 IDR | -4% |
| IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones Sociedad Anónima, IRSA | 2,495 ARS | 2,990 ARS | +20% |
| PT Plaza Indonesia Realty Tbk PLIN | 2,510 IDR | 2,698 IDR | +7% |
| PT MNC Tourism Indonesia Tbk, KPIG | 74.00 IDR | 122.12 IDR | +65% |
| PT Indonesian Paradise Property Tbk INPP | 770.00 IDR | 291.52 IDR | -62% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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