Hysan Development Co Ltd (0014) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 5, 2026: fair value of Hysan Development Co Ltd HK$15.30, price HK$15.32, upside -0.1%, quality 70 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$9.08 – HK$22.78 · fair‑value band HK$9.24 – HK$27.74 · the HK$15.32 price screens above the HK$15.30 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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Hysan Development Company Limited investment portfolio is set predominantly in Lee Gardens, a unique part of Hong Kong's renowned commercial heart in Causeway Bay. Within our approximately 5.5 million square feet of retail, office and residential tenant space, we strive to become partners with our tenants and create a sustainable ecosystem.
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Hysan Development Company Limited investment portfolio is set predominantly in Lee Gardens, a unique part of Hong Kong's renowned commercial heart in Causeway Bay. Within our approximately 5.5 million square feet of retail, office and residential tenant space, we strive to become partners with our tenants and create a sustainable ecosystem. Our medium-to-long term strategy involves the continued refinement and expansion of our Core in Lee Gardens, as well as investment in growth which will deliver a more balanced and diversified portfolio for Hysan. Hysan Development Company Limited was incorporated in 1923 in Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Hysan Development Co Ltd (0014) currently trades at HK$15.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$15.30, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 0.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$42.70 per share, and 9 of the 16 models we run sit above the HK$15.32 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at HK$5.46, and 7 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$9.24 (bear) to HK$27.74 (bull), the price of HK$15.32 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Hysan Development Co Ltd reported revenue of HK$3.6B in FY2025 versus HK$3.7B in FY2021, a compound −0.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$840M in FY2025, compounding −11.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$15.7B (≈ $2.0B) · P/E ratio 50.0 · P/S ratio 11.6 · Dividend yield 7.0% · Net margin 23.2% · Return on equity 0.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3% · Operating margin 76.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 0%, 0014 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$9.24Fair Value HK$15.30Bull HK$27.74
Price HK$15.32 · Upside -0.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.4% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−15.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−22.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−22.8% vs −11.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2017 to 2022 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.86% → 76%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.2% a year for the price and +0.9% for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 534 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−0.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)0.6% · Below median
Return on assets1.1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)29.0% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)76.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)7.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.41× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hysan Development Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0014
Frequently asked questions
Is Hysan Development Co Ltd (0014) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$15.30 versus a price of HK$15.32, about −0% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 0014?
Our model-based fair value for Hysan Development Co Ltd is HK$15.30 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$15.32.
What is the quality score of 0014?
Hysan Development Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hysan Development Co Ltd (0014)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$15.30 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$9.24, optimistic scenario HK$27.74. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hysan Development Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$15.30, about −0% upside versus a price of HK$15.32 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario HK$9.24, optimistic scenario HK$27.74. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hysan Development Co Ltd (0014)?
Hysan Development Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$2.9B (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Hysan Development Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Hysan Development Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.05% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hysan Development Co Ltd (0014)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hysan Development Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +7.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.9 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0014 use?
Our models discount Hysan Development Co Ltd at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.82, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hysan Development Co Ltd that is +7.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hysan Development Co Ltd (0014) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hysan Development Co Ltd grew -1.9 % a year. The price currently implies +7.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hysan Development Co Ltd (0014) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hysan Development Co Ltd (+7.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hysan Development Co Ltd (0014)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.44 %: that much free cash flow Hysan Development Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hysan Development Co Ltd (0014)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hysan Development Co Ltd it is HK$15.30 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of HK$15.32. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hysan Development Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, 0014 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$15.32, fair value HK$15.30, a gap of about −0% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0014?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$15.32); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$15.30). For Hysan Development Co Ltd the two are HK$0.0200 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hysan Development Co Ltd worth?
The market values Hysan Development Co Ltd at about HK$15.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is HK$15.32; our models calculate a fair value of HK$15.30 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0014?
Our models span a range for Hysan Development Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$9.24, base HK$15.30, optimistic HK$27.74 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price HK$15.32). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0014?
Hysan Development Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 50.0 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$15.30 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 8.2 (reported for FY2025: 18.7). Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 0.2, P/S 5.4, EV/EBITDA 19.6.
What is the PEG ratio of 0014?
The PEG ratio of Hysan Development Co Ltd is 0.51 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 2, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hysan Development Co Ltd (0014)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hysan Development Co Ltd (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 0.6%, debt of 0.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0014 from its 52-week high?
Hysan Development Co Ltd trades at HK$15.32, about 31% below its 52-week high of HK$22.21 and 2% above the low of HK$14.98 (as of Oct 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$15.30 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hysan Development Co Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Vingroup Joint Stock Company, CBRE Group, KE Holdings, Swire Properties Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hysan Development Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price HK$15.32, calculated fair value HK$15.30 (−0%), Quality Score 70/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0014 calculated?
We run Hysan Development Co Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$15.30, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Hysan Development Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hysan Development Co Ltd (0014)?
The closing price on Oct 5, 2026 was HK$15.32. Our model-based fair value is HK$15.30, about −0% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hysan Development Co Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (HK$9.24 to HK$27.74). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Hysan Development Co Ltd (0014) come from?
Earnings per share at Hysan Development Co Ltd grew −18.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.6 %, EBIT margin −2.0 %, tax rate −4.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −13.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hysan Development Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Hysan Development Co Ltd (0014)?
The market capitalisation of Hysan Development Co Ltd is HK$15.7B (≈ $2.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hysan Development Co Ltd (0014)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hysan Development Co Ltd is 11.6 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Hysan Development Co Ltd (0014)?
The dividend yield of Hysan Development Co Ltd is 7.0% (payout 57.8%, on adjusted earnings, reported 132%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hysan Development Co Ltd (0014)?
The net margin of Hysan Development Co Ltd is 23.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hysan Development Co Ltd (0014)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hysan Development Co Ltd is 0.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hysan Development Co Ltd (0014)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hysan Development Co Ltd is 2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hysan Development Co Ltd (0014)?
The operating margin of Hysan Development Co Ltd is 76.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hysan Development Co Ltd (0014)?
Revenue at Hysan Development Co Ltd is growing +1.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Hysan Development Co Ltd (0014) carry?
The net debt of Hysan Development Co Ltd is HK$34.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 15.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 2, 2026