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Ke Holdings Inc (2423) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Ke Holdings Inc HK$17.18, price HK$43.26, upside -60.3%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Real Estate · HK · ISIN KYG5223Y1089

KH Ke Holdings Inc logo Broad data Sep 24, 2026

Ke Holdings Inc

2423 · HK

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value HK$17.18 · Strongly overvalued (−60%)
!Quality 58/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +5.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.8% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·4.46% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
!Narrow moat 28/100
!Weak on past: 20 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$67.24 HK$23.84 Fair Value HK$17.18 May 2022 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

52‑month range HK$23.84 – HK$67.24 · fair‑value band HK$12.51 – HK$20.85 · the HK$43.26 price screens above the HK$17.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

KE Holdings Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in operating an integrated online and offline platform for housing transactions and services in the People's Republic of China.

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KE Holdings Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in operating an integrated online and offline platform for housing transactions and services in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through five segments: Existing Home Transaction Services, New Home Transaction Services, Home Renovation and Furnishing, Home rental services, and Emerging and Other Services. It operates Beike, an integrated online and offline platform for housing transactions and services; Lianjia, a real estate brokerage brand; Agent Cooperation Network, an operating system that fosters reciprocity and bonding among various service providers. The company also owns the Deyou brand for connected brokerage stores; and other brands. In addition, it offers rental property management and operation services; and contract, secure payment, escrow, and other services. KE Holdings Inc. was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

Stock analysis

Ke Holdings Inc (2423) currently trades at HK$43.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$17.18, implying the stock looks roughly 151.8% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of HK$16.04 per share, and 0 of the 9 models we run sit above the HK$43.26 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$13.94, and 9 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: HK$12.51 (bear) to HK$20.85 (bull), the price of HK$43.26 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Ke Holdings Inc reported revenue of 92.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 80.8B CNY in FY2021, a compound +3.4%/yr. Reported net income was 2.9B CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$150B (≈ $19.2B) · P/E ratio 34.1 · P/S ratio 1.08 · EPS (TTM) HK$1.33 · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin 3.2% · Return on equity 5.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −60%, 2423 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$12.51 Fair Value HK$17.18 Bull HK$20.85
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$15.85 HK$16.04 HK$15.05 76
EV/EBITDA HK$17.68 HK$21.96 HK$26.23 67
Gordon GGM HK$8.07 HK$16.77 HK$26.61 66
All 9 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$8.07 HK$16.77 HK$26.61 66
DDM Multi-Stage HK$8.07 HK$14.14 HK$17.60 66
Multiples
P/S Multiple HK$11.64 HK$15.52 HK$19.40 58
P/B Multiple HK$11.64 HK$15.52 HK$19.40 55
EV/EBIT HK$16.06 HK$19.79 HK$23.53 66
EV/EBITDA HK$17.68 HK$21.96 HK$26.23 67
EV/Revenue HK$11.03 HK$13.68 HK$16.33 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$10.40 HK$13.94 HK$20.81 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$15.85 HK$16.04 HK$15.05 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 58/100

Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54

Profitability 34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 40
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 13
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 83
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 52
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 32
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 96
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 32/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.8%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+5.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.5%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 2%

2423 screens 152% overvalued. Compare with Vingroup Joint Stock Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 547 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 58 · Above median
Fair Value upside −60% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −19% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.01× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 34.1× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.93× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 1.42× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 28.4× · Priciest 25%
PEG 0.44× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 38
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 12
PAST (return on equity)20 · sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)89 · sector 65

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vingroup Joint Stock Company VIC 236,000 VND 25,731 VND −89%
CBRE Group CBRE $141.05 $89.43 −37%
Vonovia SE VNA €17.09 €36.67 +115%
Cellnex Telecom, S.A CLNX €25.33 €23.78 −6%
Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated JLL $324.06 $530.17 +64%
Swire Properties Limited 1972 HK$24.40 HK$13.50 −45%
CoStar Group CSGP $28.77 $6.17 −79%
China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services Limited 1209 HK$37.44 HK$56.43 +51%
CapitaLand Investment Limited 9CI 2.62 SGD 0.5000 SGD −81%
Compass, Inc COMP $9.16 $5.20 −43%

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Ke Holdings Inc · Fair Value
HK$17.18 −152%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ke Holdings Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2423

Frequently asked questions

Is Ke Holdings Inc (2423) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$17.18 versus a price of HK$43.26, about −60% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2423?
Our model-based fair value for Ke Holdings Inc is HK$17.18 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$43.26.
What is the quality score of 2423?
Ke Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ke Holdings Inc (2423)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$17.18 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$12.51, optimistic scenario HK$20.85. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ke Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$17.18, about −60% upside versus a price of HK$43.26 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$12.51, optimistic scenario HK$20.85. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ke Holdings Inc (2423)?
Ke Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 90.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Ke Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
Ke Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.46% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ke Holdings Inc (2423)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ke Holdings Inc it is HK$17.18 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$43.26. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ke Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 2423 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$43.26, fair value HK$17.18, a gap of about −60% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2423?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$43.26); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$17.18). For Ke Holdings Inc the two are HK$26.08 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ke Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Ke Holdings Inc at about HK$150B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$43.26; our models calculate a fair value of HK$17.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2423?
Our models span a range for Ke Holdings Inc: cautious scenario HK$12.51, base HK$17.18, optimistic HK$20.85 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$43.26). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2423?
Ke Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 34.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$17.18 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.4, P/B 1.9, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 28.4.
What is the PEG ratio of 2423?
The PEG ratio of Ke Holdings Inc is 0.44 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ke Holdings Inc (2423)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ke Holdings Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.1%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2423 from its 52-week high?
Ke Holdings Inc trades at HK$43.26, about 16% below its 52-week high of HK$51.67 and 20% above the low of HK$35.94 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$17.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ke Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Vingroup Joint Stock Company, CBRE Group, Vonovia SE, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ke Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$43.26, calculated fair value HK$17.18 (−60%), Quality Score 58/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2423 calculated?
We run Ke Holdings Inc through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$17.18, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Ke Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ke Holdings Inc (2423)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$43.26. Our model-based fair value is HK$17.18, about −60% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ke Holdings Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$20.85). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Key figures of Ke Holdings Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Ke Holdings Inc (2423)?
The market capitalisation of Ke Holdings Inc is HK$150B (≈ $19.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ke Holdings Inc (2423)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ke Holdings Inc is 1.08 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ke Holdings Inc (2423)?
Earnings per share at Ke Holdings Inc are HK$1.33 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 34.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ke Holdings Inc (2423)?
The dividend yield of Ke Holdings Inc is 4.5% (payout 145%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ke Holdings Inc (2423)?
The net margin of Ke Holdings Inc is 3.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ke Holdings Inc (2423)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ke Holdings Inc is 5.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ke Holdings Inc (2423)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ke Holdings Inc is 1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ke Holdings Inc (2423)?
The operating margin of Ke Holdings Inc is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ke Holdings Inc (2423)?
Revenue at Ke Holdings Inc is growing −19.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ke Holdings Inc (2423)?
Earnings per share at Ke Holdings Inc are growing +54.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Ke Holdings Inc (2423) generate?
The free cash flow of Ke Holdings Inc is −958M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Ke Holdings Inc (2423) carry?
The net debt of Ke Holdings Inc is 2.8B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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