KE Holdings (2423) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$124B
Fair value as of: Aug 6, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 6, 2026, revised from HK$17.91 to HK$18.03 (+0.7%) since Jul 2, 2026. Share price +12.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 60% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$22.54). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (4 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
51‑month range HK$23.84 – HK$67.24 · fair‑value band HK$13.52 – HK$22.54 · the HK$45.52 price screens above the HK$18.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.
Analysis
KE Holdings (2423) currently trades at HK$45.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$18.03, implying the stock looks roughly 60.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, KE Holdings generated revenue of HK$90.1B at a net margin of 3.8%. Revenue declined 19.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.1%. Net debt stands at HK$2.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 6, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$13.52 (bear case) to HK$22.54 (bull case); at HK$45.52, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 22% fair-value upside, at -60%, 2423 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit (HK$16.04) versus Asset-Based (HK$13.94). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
KE Holdings Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in operating an integrated online and offline platform for housing transactions and services in the People's Republic of China.
Full company description
KE Holdings Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in operating an integrated online and offline platform for housing transactions and services in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through five segments: Existing Home Transaction Services, New Home Transaction Services, Home Renovation and Furnishing, Home rental services, and Emerging and Other Services. It operates Beike, an integrated online and offline platform for housing transactions and services; Lianjia, a real estate brokerage brand; Agent Cooperation Network, an operating system that fosters reciprocity and bonding among various service providers. The company also owns the Deyou brand for connected brokerage stores; and other brands. In addition, it offers rental property management and operation services; and contract, secure payment, escrow, and other services. KE Holdings Inc. was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
KE Holdings reported revenue of HK$92.1B in FY2025 versus HK$80.8B in FY2021, a compound +3.4%/yr. Reported net income was HK$2.9B in FY2025.
2423 screens 60% overvalued. Compare with Vingroup Joint Stock Company →
Peer Group
Real Estate Services · 520 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 6, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vingroup Joint Stock Company VIC | 223,000 VND | 25,731 VND | -88% |
| Swire Properties Limited 1972 | HK$23.90 | HK$18.75 | -22% |
| Plaza S.A MALLPLAZA | 3,725 CLP | 5,571 CLP | +50% |
| SAGAA SAGAA | kr 170.00 | kr 75.55 | -56% |
| Cencosud Shopping S.A CENCOMALLS | 2,324 CLP | 2,976 CLP | +28% |
| PT Sarana Menara Nusantara Tbk. owns and TOWR | 372.00 IDR | 1,208 IDR | +225% |
| PT Metropolitan Kentjana Tbk MKPI | 20,975 IDR | 19,160 IDR | -9% |
| PT Bangun Kosambi Sukses Tbk, CBDK | 3,530 IDR | 3,464 IDR | -2% |
| IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones Sociedad Anónima, IRSA | 2,495 ARS | 3,998 ARS | +60% |
| PT Plaza Indonesia Realty Tbk PLIN | 2,510 IDR | 3,074 IDR | +22% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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