EN DE

KE Holdings (2423) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$124B

KH KE Holdings 2423 · HK
PriceHK$45.52
Fair ValueHK$18.03
Upside-60.4%
Quality58/100
Watch KE Holdings for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free
Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 3.8% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
5.14% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
Narrow moat 28/100
Evidence: High Range HK$13.52 – HK$22.54 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 6, 2026

From 9 valuation models · updated 5 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 6, 2026, revised from HK$17.91 to HK$18.03 (+0.7%) since Jul 2, 2026. Share price +12.1% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 60% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$22.54). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Share this valuation: 𝕏 WhatsApp

Price vs Fair Value (4 years)

HK$67.24 HK$23.84 Fair Value HK$18.03 May 2022 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

51‑month range HK$23.84 – HK$67.24 · fair‑value band HK$13.52 – HK$22.54 · the HK$45.52 price screens above the HK$18.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Analysis

KE Holdings (2423) currently trades at HK$45.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$18.03, implying the stock looks roughly 60.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, KE Holdings generated revenue of HK$90.1B at a net margin of 3.8%. Revenue declined 19.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.1%. Net debt stands at HK$2.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 6, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$13.52 (bear case) to HK$22.54 (bull case); at HK$45.52, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 22% fair-value upside, at -60%, 2423 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$15.85 HK$16.04 HK$15.05 76
Gordon GGM HK$8.07 HK$16.77 HK$26.61 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$8.07 HK$14.14 HK$17.60 61
All 9 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$8.07 HK$16.77 HK$26.61 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$8.07 HK$14.14 HK$17.60 61
Multiples
P/S Multiple HK$11.64 HK$15.52 HK$19.40 58
P/B Multiple HK$11.64 HK$15.52 HK$19.40 55
EV/EBIT HK$16.06 HK$19.79 HK$23.53 53
EV/EBITDA HK$17.68 HK$21.96 HK$26.23 54
EV/Revenue HK$11.03 HK$13.68 HK$16.33 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$10.40 HK$13.94 HK$20.81 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$15.85 HK$16.04 HK$15.05 76

Widest divergence: Economic Profit (HK$16.04) versus Asset-Based (HK$13.94). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Notify me when 2423 reaches fair value

Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$90.1B
Revenue growth (YoY) -19.0%
Net margin 3.8%
Return on equity 5.1%
Free cash flow −HK$958M FY2025
P/E ratio 34.1
More key figures
Operating margin 6.7%
EPS (TTM) HK$1.33
Dividend yield 5.1%
EPS growth (YoY) +54.2%
Net debt HK$2.8B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 58/100

Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45

Profitability 34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 40
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 13
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 83
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 74
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 29
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 39
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 96
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

KE Holdings Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in operating an integrated online and offline platform for housing transactions and services in the People's Republic of China.

Full company description

KE Holdings Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in operating an integrated online and offline platform for housing transactions and services in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through five segments: Existing Home Transaction Services, New Home Transaction Services, Home Renovation and Furnishing, Home rental services, and Emerging and Other Services. It operates Beike, an integrated online and offline platform for housing transactions and services; Lianjia, a real estate brokerage brand; Agent Cooperation Network, an operating system that fosters reciprocity and bonding among various service providers. The company also owns the Deyou brand for connected brokerage stores; and other brands. In addition, it offers rental property management and operation services; and contract, secure payment, escrow, and other services. KE Holdings Inc. was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

KE Holdings reported revenue of HK$92.1B in FY2025 versus HK$80.8B in FY2021, a compound +3.4%/yr. Reported net income was HK$2.9B in FY2025.

Growth Quality 32/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$92.1B
Latest YoY
−1.4%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.5%
Avg. growth/yr (8Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+17.8%
Revenue +3.4%/yr
FY21 HK$80.8B
FY22 HK$60.7B
FY23 HK$77.8B
FY24 HK$93.5B
FY25 HK$92.1B
Net income
FY21 −HK$524M
FY22 −HK$1.4B
FY23 HK$5.9B
FY24 HK$4.1B
FY25 HK$2.9B

2423 screens 60% overvalued. Compare with Vingroup Joint Stock Company →

Share or link this analysis
For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "KE Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2423

Peer Group

Real Estate Services · 520 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 58 · Above median
Fair Value upside −60% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Below median
Revenue growth -19% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.1% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.01× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 34.1× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 1.87× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.38× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 27.4× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 0.44× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 37
FUTURE 0 · sector 10
PAST 20 · sector 16
HEALTH 100 · sector 85
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 49

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 6, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vingroup Joint Stock Company VIC 223,000 VND 25,731 VND -88%
Swire Properties Limited 1972 HK$23.90 HK$18.75 -22%
Plaza S.A MALLPLAZA 3,725 CLP 5,571 CLP +50%
SAGAA SAGAA kr 170.00 kr 75.55 -56%
Cencosud Shopping S.A CENCOMALLS 2,324 CLP 2,976 CLP +28%
PT Sarana Menara Nusantara Tbk. owns and TOWR 372.00 IDR 1,208 IDR +225%
PT Metropolitan Kentjana Tbk MKPI 20,975 IDR 19,160 IDR -9%
PT Bangun Kosambi Sukses Tbk, CBDK 3,530 IDR 3,464 IDR -2%
IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones Sociedad Anónima, IRSA 2,495 ARS 3,998 ARS +60%
PT Plaza Indonesia Realty Tbk PLIN 2,510 IDR 3,074 IDR +22%

Compare KE Holdings with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

Free, no sign-up

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Real Estate stocks →

All undervalued stocks TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks

Frequently asked questions

Is KE Holdings (2423) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$18.03 versus a price of HK$45.52, about −60% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2423?
Our model-based fair value for KE Holdings is HK$18.03 (as of Aug 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$45.52.
What is the quality score of 2423?
KE Holdings has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of KE Holdings (2423)?
KE Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$90.1B (latest available figure, as of Aug 6, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2423?
The net profit margin of KE Holdings is about 3.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does KE Holdings pay a dividend?
KE Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.14% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 6, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

14 days Pro free · no card

Track KE Holdings and try Pro for 14 days

One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.