Swire Properties Close Only (1972) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Swire Properties Close Only HK$13.39, price HK$24.36, upside -45.0%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$10.76 – HK$26.09 · fair‑value band HK$8.98 – HK$13.39 · the HK$24.36 price screens above the HK$13.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Swire Properties Limited, together with its subsidiaries, develops, owns, and operates mixed-use, primarily commercial properties in Hong Kong, Mainland China, and the United States. The company operates through Property Investment, Property Trading, and Hotels segments.
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Swire Properties Limited, together with its subsidiaries, develops, owns, and operates mixed-use, primarily commercial properties in Hong Kong, Mainland China, and the United States. The company operates through Property Investment, Property Trading, and Hotels segments. It engages in the development, leasing, and management of commercial, retail, and residential properties; development and sale of residential apartments; and investment in and operation of hotels. The company also provides financial and real estate agency services. Swire Properties Limited was incorporated in 1972 and is based in Hong Kong, Hong Kong. The company operates as a subsidiary of Swire Pacific Limited.
Stock analysis
Swire Properties Close Only (1972) currently trades at HK$24.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$13.39, 45.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$31.36 per share, and 1 of the 12 models we run sit above the HK$24.36 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$1.34, and 11 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$8.98 (bear) to HK$13.39 (bull), the price of HK$24.36 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Swire Properties Close Only reported revenue of HK$16.0B in FY2025 versus HK$16.4B in FY2021, a compound −0.5%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$1.5B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$140B (≈ $17.9B) · P/E ratio 42.7 · P/S ratio 7.93 · Dividend yield 4.8% · Net margin −9.6% · Return on equity 1.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8% · Operating margin 46.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at −45%, 1972 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (HK$1.34 to HK$31.36). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear HK$8.98Fair Value HK$13.39Bull HK$13.39
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.54/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.5% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
58.6% (2019) → 11.8% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.1% a year for the price and +1.8% for the forecasts.
Compare Swire Properties Close Only with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 538 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−45.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1.2% · Below median
Return on assets1.6% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)18.7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)46.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth13.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.15× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)42.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.52× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)7.94× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF19.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA17.9× · Pricier than median
PEG0.45× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 46
FUTURE (revenue growth)65· sector 12
PAST (return on equity)5· sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)93· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)96· sector 62
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Swire Properties Close Only Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1972
Frequently asked questions
Is Swire Properties Close Only (1972) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$13.39 versus a price of HK$24.36, about −45% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1972?
Our model-based fair value for Swire Properties Close Only is HK$13.39 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$24.36.
What is the quality score of 1972?
Swire Properties Close Only has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Swire Properties Close Only (1972)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$13.39 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$8.98, optimistic scenario HK$13.39. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Swire Properties Close Only stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$13.39, about −45% upside versus a price of HK$24.36 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$8.98, optimistic scenario HK$13.39. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Swire Properties Close Only (1972)?
Swire Properties Close Only reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$17.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Swire Properties Close Only pay a dividend?
Swire Properties Close Only currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.80% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Swire Properties Close Only (1972)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Swire Properties Close Only would have to grow free cash flow by +12.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.7 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1972 use?
Our models discount Swire Properties Close Only at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.82, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Swire Properties Close Only that is +12.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Swire Properties Close Only (1972) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Swire Properties Close Only grew +3.7 % a year. The price currently implies +12.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Swire Properties Close Only (1972) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Swire Properties Close Only (+12.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Swire Properties Close Only (1972)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.20 %: that much free cash flow Swire Properties Close Only produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Swire Properties Close Only (1972)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Swire Properties Close Only it is HK$13.39 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$24.36. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Swire Properties Close Only stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1972 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$24.36, fair value HK$13.39, a gap of about −45% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1972?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$24.36); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$13.39). For Swire Properties Close Only the two are HK$10.97 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Swire Properties Close Only worth?
The market values Swire Properties Close Only at about HK$140B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$24.36; our models calculate a fair value of HK$13.39 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1972?
Our models span a range for Swire Properties Close Only: cautious scenario HK$8.98, base HK$13.39, optimistic HK$13.39 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$24.36). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1972?
Swire Properties Close Only trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 42.7 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$13.39 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 22.4 (the reported result was a loss). Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 0.5, P/S 7.9, EV/EBITDA 17.9.
What is the PEG ratio of 1972?
The PEG ratio of Swire Properties Close Only is 0.45 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Swire Properties Close Only (1972)?
Balance-sheet figures for Swire Properties Close Only (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 1.2%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1972 from its 52-week high?
Swire Properties Close Only trades at HK$24.36, about 7% below its 52-week high of HK$26.09 and 21% above the low of HK$20.15 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$13.39 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Swire Properties Close Only?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value CBRE Group, KE Holdings, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, Vonovia SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Swire Properties Close Only stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$24.36, calculated fair value HK$13.39 (−45%), Quality Score 64/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1972 calculated?
We run Swire Properties Close Only through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$13.39, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Swire Properties Close Only itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Swire Properties Close Only (1972)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$24.36. Our model-based fair value is HK$13.39, about −45% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Swire Properties Close Only right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$13.39). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Swire Properties Close Only
How large is the market capitalisation of Swire Properties Close Only (1972)?
The market capitalisation of Swire Properties Close Only is HK$140B (≈ $17.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Swire Properties Close Only (1972)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Swire Properties Close Only is 7.93 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Swire Properties Close Only (1972)?
The dividend yield of Swire Properties Close Only is 4.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Swire Properties Close Only (1972)?
The net margin of Swire Properties Close Only is −9.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Swire Properties Close Only (1972)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Swire Properties Close Only is 1.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Swire Properties Close Only (1972)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Swire Properties Close Only is 1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Swire Properties Close Only (1972)?
The operating margin of Swire Properties Close Only is 46.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Swire Properties Close Only (1972)?
Revenue at Swire Properties Close Only is growing +13.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Swire Properties Close Only (1972)?
Earnings per share at Swire Properties Close Only are growing −19.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Swire Properties Close Only (1972) carry?
The net debt of Swire Properties Close Only is HK$39.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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