Swire Properties Close Only (1972) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Swire Properties Close Only is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
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Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$143B (≈ $18.3B) · ISIN HK0000063609
At a glance
SPSwire Properties Close Only1972 · HK
PriceHK$24.84
Fair ValueHK$5.12
Upside−79.4%
Quality63/100
A solid business, but trading 385% above our fair value of HK$5.12.
As of Aug 27, 2026, the fair value of Swire Properties Close Only is HK$5.12 per share against a price of HK$24.84, so the fair value sits 79% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +3.7 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -9.2% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·4.71% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (9/14)
!Narrow moat 36/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 21 out of 100
Evidence: MediumRange HK$3.46 to HK$7.41
Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 27, 2026, revised from HK$18.75 to HK$5.12 (−72.7%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +3.3% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$7.41). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
A fairly wide model range (HK$3.46 to HK$7.41) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$10.76 – HK$26.09 · fair‑value band HK$3.46 – HK$7.41 · the HK$24.84 price screens above the HK$5.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
Swire Properties Close Only (1972) currently trades at HK$24.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$5.12, implying the stock looks roughly 385.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$31.36 per share, and 1 of the 12 models we run sit above the HK$24.84 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$1.34, and 11 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Swire Properties Close Only generated revenue of HK$16.6B at a net margin of −9.2%. Revenue grew 4.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −0.6%. Net debt stands at HK$39.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026
Scenario range: HK$3.46 (bear) to HK$7.41 (bull), the price of HK$24.84 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −79%, 1972 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (HK$1.34 to HK$31.36). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/S ratio7.08TTM
EPS (TTM)HK$−0.2100
Dividend yield4.7%
Net margin−9.6%FY2025
Return on equity−0.6%TTM
Return on assets (EBIT)1.8%avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin57.7%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)HK$16.6BTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+4.2%3y avg +4.9%
EPS growth (YoY)−19.2%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flowHK$7.3BFY2025
Net debtHK$39.5BFY2025 · ≈ 5.4 yrs of FCF
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality63/100
Of which business quality 62
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Profitability8
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth31
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength61
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment97
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility78
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum55
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum71
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance91
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Swire Properties Limited, together with its subsidiaries, develops, owns, and operates mixed-use, primarily commercial properties in Hong Kong, Mainland China, and the United States. The company operates through Property Investment, Property Trading, and Hotels segments.
Full company description
Swire Properties Limited, together with its subsidiaries, develops, owns, and operates mixed-use, primarily commercial properties in Hong Kong, Mainland China, and the United States. The company operates through Property Investment, Property Trading, and Hotels segments. It engages in the development, leasing, and management of commercial, retail, and residential properties; development and sale of residential apartments; and investment in and operation of hotels. The company also provides financial and real estate agency services. Swire Properties Limited was incorporated in 1972 and is based in Hong Kong, Hong Kong. The company operates as a subsidiary of Swire Pacific Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Swire Properties Close Only reported revenue of HK$16.0B in FY2025 versus HK$16.4B in FY2021, a compound −0.5%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$1.5B in FY2025.
Growth Quality 35/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$16.0B
Latest YoY
+11.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (18Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−2.6%
EBIT margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
58.6% (2019) → 11.8% (2024)
Value creation/yr ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Swire Properties Close Only Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1972
Peer Group
Real Estate Services · 529 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−79% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)58% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.15× · Below median
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.06× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.90× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF2.1× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA5.0× · Cheapest 25%
PEG0.45× · Cheapest 25%
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Swire Properties Close Only deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Implied FCF growth, 10 years+9.8 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+3.7 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+1.5 %
FCF yield on price5.09 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models9.3 %
The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE0· sector 31
FUTURE21· sector 10
PAST0· sector 17
HEALTH93· sector 84
DIVIDEND94· sector 64
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).
Is Swire Properties Close Only (1972) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$5.12 versus a price of HK$24.84, about −79% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1972?
Our model-based fair value for Swire Properties Close Only is HK$5.12 (as of Aug 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$24.84.
What is the quality score of 1972?
Swire Properties Close Only has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Swire Properties Close Only (1972)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$5.12 (as of Aug 27, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$3.46, optimistic scenario HK$7.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Swire Properties Close Only stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$5.12, about −79% upside versus a price of HK$24.84 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$3.46, optimistic scenario HK$7.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Swire Properties Close Only (1972)?
Swire Properties Close Only reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$16.6B (latest available figure, as of Aug 27, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1972?
The net profit margin of Swire Properties Close Only is about −9.2%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Swire Properties Close Only pay a dividend?
Swire Properties Close Only currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.71% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Swire Properties Close Only (1972)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Swire Properties Close Only would have to grow free cash flow by +9.8 % per year for ten years (discount rate 9.3 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.7 % per year. As of Aug 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1972 use?
Our models discount Swire Properties Close Only at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.80, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Swire Properties Close Only (1972)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Swire Properties Close Only it is HK$5.12 per share (as of Aug 27, 2026), against a price of HK$24.84. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Swire Properties Close Only stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Aug 27, 2026, 1972 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$24.84, fair value HK$5.12, a gap of about −79% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1972?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$24.84); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$5.12). For Swire Properties Close Only the two are HK$19.72 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Swire Properties Close Only worth?
The market values Swire Properties Close Only at about HK$143B (market capitalisation, as of Aug 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$24.84; our models calculate a fair value of HK$5.12 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1972?
Our models span a range for Swire Properties Close Only: cautious scenario HK$3.46, base HK$5.12, optimistic HK$7.41 per share (as of Aug 27, 2026, price HK$24.84). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 1972?
The PEG ratio of Swire Properties Close Only is 0.45 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Aug 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Swire Properties Close Only (1972)?
Balance-sheet figures for Swire Properties Close Only (as of Aug 27, 2026): return on equity −0.6%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1972 from its 52-week high?
Swire Properties Close Only trades at HK$24.84, about 5% below its 52-week high of HK$26.26 and 38% above the low of HK$17.96 (as of Aug 27, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$5.12 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Swire Properties Close Only?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value CBRE Group, Vonovia SE, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, KE Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Swire Properties Close Only stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Aug 27, 2026: price HK$24.84, calculated fair value HK$5.12 (−79%), Quality Score 63/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1972 calculated?
We run Swire Properties Close Only through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$5.12, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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