S.F. Holding Co. Ltd (002352) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what S.F. Holding Co. Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of ¥31.13.
As of Aug 13, 2026, the fair value of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd is ¥31.13 per share against a price of ¥31.84, so the fair value sits 2% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +14.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.7% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·2.80% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (10/15)
!Narrow moat 34/100
Evidence: HighRange ¥23.35 to ¥38.92
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from ¥48.64 to ¥31.13 (−36.0%) since Jul 9, 2026. Share price −4.4% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥30.82 – ¥75.81 · fair‑value band ¥23.35 – ¥38.92 · the ¥31.84 price screens above the ¥31.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
S.F. Holding Co. Ltd (002352) currently trades at ¥31.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥31.13, implying the stock looks roughly 2.3% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥106.04 per share, and 21 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥31.84 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥13.86, and 5 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, S.F. Holding Co. Ltd generated revenue of 313B CNY at a net margin of 3.7%. Revenue grew 6.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.1%. Net debt stands at 3.6B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Scenario range: ¥23.35 (bear) to ¥38.92 (bull), the price of ¥31.84 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −2%, 002352 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.9528 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio14.2as of Jul 9, 2026
P/S ratio0.51P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)¥2.27price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.2
Dividend yield2.8%payout 39.2%
Net margin3.6%FY2025
Return on equity11.1%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)5.3%avg 5y
Operating margin5.1%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)313B CNYTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+6.1%3y avg +4.8%
EPS growth (YoY)+11.1%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow18.0B CNYFY2025
Net debt3.6B CNYFY2025 · ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality61/100
Of which business quality 61
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Profitability50
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth59
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow57
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength66
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment90
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility93
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum23
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum5
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance53
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
S.F. Holding Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides integrated logistics services in China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Express and Large Items, Same-City Instant Delivery, and Supply Chain and International.
Full company description
S.F. Holding Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides integrated logistics services in China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Express and Large Items, Same-City Instant Delivery, and Supply Chain and International. It offers time-sensitive and economy express deliveries, as well as international, bulk, cold chain, and pharmaceutical shipping; same-city instant and last-mile delivery services; international express delivery, international freight forwarding, agency, and supply chain services, as well as warehousing and distribution services. The company also provides technology services, including smart express delivery, smart life, smart business, and smart supply chain software, as well as smart hardware; and supply chain solutions for automotive, technology, industrial equipment, consumer goods, retail food and catering, life sciences and pharmaceuticals, finance and insurance, and government and enterprise services sectors. In addition, it is involved in air cargo and mail transportation; technical maintenance and development services; business information and enterprise management consulting; value-added telecommunications services; management of e-commerce industrial parks; driving services; factoring business; financing and wealth management; retail; leasing; property management; scientific research and technical services; postal services; and asset, capital, and investment management. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
S.F. Holding Co. Ltd reported revenue of 308B CNY in FY2025 versus 207B CNY in FY2021, a compound +10.4%/yr. Reported net income was 11.1B CNY in FY2025, compounding +27.0%/yr from FY2021.
Growth Quality 85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
308B CNY
Latest YoY
+8.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (19Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+51.6%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+13.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+11.0%
Dividend yield2.8%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 11.0% vs 10Y 7.6%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6.6% (2020) → 5.0% (2025) · falling
Worst earnings drop97% (2015) · in CNY
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 6.1%/yr over ~11Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Revenue+10.4%/yr
FY21207B CNY
FY22267B CNY
FY23258B CNY
FY24284B CNY
FY25308B CNY
Net income+27.0%/yr
FY214.3B CNY
FY226.2B CNY
FY238.2B CNY
FY2410.2B CNY
FY2511.1B CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2013-2024)−10.8 % p.a.
Revenue per share−9.5 %
of which total revenue +24.7 % · buybacks/dilution −27.4 %
EBIT margin+0.7 %
Tax rate−0.6 %
Residual (interest, one-offs)−1.6 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.18× · Above median
Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)14.2× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.71× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)0.54× · Pricier than median
P/FCF1.4× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA7.1× · Cheaper than median
PEG1.26× · Cheaper than median
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must S.F. Holding Co. Ltd deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Implied FCF growth, 10 years-7.3 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+14.9 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+4.6 %
FCF yield on price11.25 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.7 %
The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE30· sector 44
FUTURE31· sector 8
PAST44· sector 26
HEALTH91· sector 94
DIVIDEND56· sector 56
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
Is S.F. Holding Co. Ltd (002352) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥31.13 versus a price of ¥31.84, about −2% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 002352?
Our model-based fair value for S.F. Holding Co. Ltd is ¥31.13 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥31.84.
What is the quality score of 002352?
S.F. Holding Co. Ltd has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for S.F. Holding Co. Ltd (002352)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥31.13 (as of Aug 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥23.35, optimistic scenario ¥38.92. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the S.F. Holding Co. Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥31.13, about −2% upside versus a price of ¥31.84 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario ¥23.35, optimistic scenario ¥38.92. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd (002352)?
S.F. Holding Co. Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 313B CNY (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 002352?
The net profit margin of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd is about 3.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does S.F. Holding Co. Ltd pay a dividend?
S.F. Holding Co. Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.80% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into S.F. Holding Co. Ltd (002352)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, S.F. Holding Co. Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -7.3 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.7 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.9 % per year. As of Aug 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 002352 use?
Our models discount S.F. Holding Co. Ltd at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.42, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd (002352)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For S.F. Holding Co. Ltd it is ¥31.13 per share (as of Aug 13, 2026), against a price of ¥31.84. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is S.F. Holding Co. Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Aug 13, 2026, 002352 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥31.84, fair value ¥31.13, a gap of about −2% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002352?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥31.84); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥31.13). For S.F. Holding Co. Ltd the two are ¥0.7057 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is S.F. Holding Co. Ltd worth?
The market values S.F. Holding Co. Ltd at about 169B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Aug 13, 2026). Per share that is ¥31.84; our models calculate a fair value of ¥31.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002352?
Our models span a range for S.F. Holding Co. Ltd: cautious scenario ¥23.35, base ¥31.13, optimistic ¥38.92 per share (as of Aug 13, 2026, price ¥31.84). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 002352?
S.F. Holding Co. Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.2 (as of Aug 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥31.13 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 1.7, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 7.1.
What is the PEG ratio of 002352?
The PEG ratio of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd is 1.26 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Aug 13, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd (002352)?
Balance-sheet figures for S.F. Holding Co. Ltd (as of Aug 13, 2026): return on equity 11.1%, debt of 0.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002352 from its 52-week high?
S.F. Holding Co. Ltd trades at ¥31.84, about 34% below its 52-week high of ¥48.46 and 6% above the low of ¥30.13 (as of Aug 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥31.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to S.F. Holding Co. Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is S.F. Holding Co. Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Aug 13, 2026: price ¥31.84, calculated fair value ¥31.13 (−2%), Quality Score 61/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002352 calculated?
We run S.F. Holding Co. Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥31.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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