S.F. Holding Co. Ltd (002352) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd ¥58.90, price ¥30.67, upside +92.0%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥30.44 – ¥69.32 · fair‑value band ¥30.67 – ¥76.57 · the ¥30.67 price screens below the ¥58.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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S.F. Holding Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides integrated logistics services in China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Express and Large Items, Same-City Instant Delivery, and Supply Chain and International.
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S.F. Holding Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides integrated logistics services in China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Express and Large Items, Same-City Instant Delivery, and Supply Chain and International. It offers time-sensitive and economy express deliveries, as well as international, bulk, cold chain, and pharmaceutical shipping; same-city instant and last-mile delivery services; international express delivery, international freight forwarding, agency, and supply chain services, as well as warehousing and distribution services. The company also provides technology services, including smart express delivery, smart life, smart business, and smart supply chain software, as well as smart hardware; and supply chain solutions for automotive, technology, industrial equipment, consumer goods, retail food and catering, life sciences and pharmaceuticals, finance and insurance, and government and enterprise services sectors. In addition, it is involved in air cargo and mail transportation; technical maintenance and development services; business information and enterprise management consulting; value-added telecommunications services; management of e-commerce industrial parks; driving services; factoring business; financing and wealth management; retail; leasing; property management; scientific research and technical services; postal services; and asset, capital, and investment management. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.
Stock analysis
S.F. Holding Co. Ltd (002352) currently trades at ¥30.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥58.90, implying the stock looks roughly 47.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥111.57 per share, and 21 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥30.67 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥14.34, and 5 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥30.67 (bear) to ¥76.57 (bull), the price of ¥30.67 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
S.F. Holding Co. Ltd reported revenue of 308B CNY in FY2025 versus 207B CNY in FY2021, a compound +10.4%/yr. Reported net income was 11.1B CNY in FY2025, compounding +27.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 155B CNY (≈ $23.1B) · P/E ratio 14.1 · P/S ratio 0.51 · EPS (TTM) ¥2.16 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 3.6% · Return on equity 10.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at 92%, 002352 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥30.67Fair Value ¥58.90Bull ¥76.57
Price ¥30.67 · Upside +92.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.9546 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV¥25.22¥29.30¥32.8774
Residual Income¥19.47¥22.31¥29.7274
FCF DCF¥71.17¥111.57¥240.2073
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF¥71.17¥111.57¥240.2073
Owner Earnings¥66.21¥149.73¥325.0568
5Y Revenue Exit¥44.33¥72.61¥131.5168
5Y EBITDA Exit¥70.31¥125.16¥232.7669
5Y P/E Exit¥48.52¥100.35¥169.7566
10Y Revenue Exit¥51.54¥103.97¥134.7164
10Y EBITDA Exit¥71.87¥159.93¥313.7162
10Y P/E Exit¥55.97¥113.01¥203.9359
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd¥16.30¥113.64¥159.4861
Lynch FV¥58.71¥83.87¥109.0359
PEG = 1.0¥58.71¥83.87¥109.0355
EPV¥25.22¥29.30¥32.8774
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM¥11.23¥23.35¥37.0464
DDM Multi-Stage¥11.23¥19.69¥24.5064
Multiples
P/E Multiple¥37.74¥50.32¥62.9063
P/S Multiple¥30.55¥40.74¥50.9258
P/B Multiple¥30.55¥40.74¥50.9255
EV/EBIT¥42.83¥56.86¥70.8966
EV/EBITDA¥67.33¥89.53¥111.7367
EV/Revenue¥30.78¥43.65¥56.5354
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥10.70¥14.34¥21.4154
Growth DCF
Growth DCF¥66.99¥132.23¥239.1472
Rev-Margin DCF¥48.65¥83.01¥155.2067
Economic Profit
Residual Income¥19.47¥22.31¥29.7274
ROIC Compounder¥30.18¥42.10¥53.5270
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E¥76.79¥109.70¥142.6265
P/S and P/B multiple show the same value here: both are capped by the same earnings anchor (earnings per share times 17), because margin and return on equity do not support the sector multiple.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +20.4% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+51.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+14.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11.0% vs 7.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 5%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 6.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−10.6%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −12.1% a year for the price and +5.2% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 209 stocks
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Is S.F. Holding Co. Ltd (002352) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥58.90 versus the last price from Sep 30, 2026 of ¥30.67, about +92% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 002352?
Our model-based fair value for S.F. Holding Co. Ltd is ¥58.90 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 30, 2026): ¥30.67.
What is the quality score of 002352?
S.F. Holding Co. Ltd has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for S.F. Holding Co. Ltd (002352)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥58.90 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥30.67, optimistic scenario ¥76.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the S.F. Holding Co. Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥58.90, about +92% upside versus the last price from Sep 30, 2026 of ¥30.67 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥30.67, optimistic scenario ¥76.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd (002352)?
S.F. Holding Co. Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 317B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does S.F. Holding Co. Ltd pay a dividend?
S.F. Holding Co. Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.00% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into S.F. Holding Co. Ltd (002352)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, S.F. Holding Co. Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -10.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.9 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 002352 use?
Our models discount S.F. Holding Co. Ltd at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.33, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For S.F. Holding Co. Ltd that is -10.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has S.F. Holding Co. Ltd (002352) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at S.F. Holding Co. Ltd grew +14.9 % a year. The price currently implies -10.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd (002352) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into S.F. Holding Co. Ltd (-10.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd (002352)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.68 %: that much free cash flow S.F. Holding Co. Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd (002352)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For S.F. Holding Co. Ltd it is ¥58.90 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of ¥30.67. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is S.F. Holding Co. Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 002352 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥30.67, fair value ¥58.90, a gap of about +92% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002352?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥30.67); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥58.90). For S.F. Holding Co. Ltd the two are ¥28.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is S.F. Holding Co. Ltd worth?
The market values S.F. Holding Co. Ltd at about 155B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is ¥30.67; our models calculate a fair value of ¥58.90 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002352?
Our models span a range for S.F. Holding Co. Ltd: cautious scenario ¥30.67, base ¥58.90, optimistic ¥76.57 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price ¥30.67). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 002352?
S.F. Holding Co. Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.1 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥58.90 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.1, P/B 1.6, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 6.4.
What is the PEG ratio of 002352?
The PEG ratio of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd is 2.11 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd (002352)?
Balance-sheet figures for S.F. Holding Co. Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 10.6%, debt of 0.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002352 from its 52-week high?
S.F. Holding Co. Ltd trades at ¥30.67, about 25% below its 52-week high of ¥40.67 and 1% above the low of ¥30.44 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥58.90 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to S.F. Holding Co. Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, Deutsche Post AG, FedEx Corporation, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is S.F. Holding Co. Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price ¥30.67, calculated fair value ¥58.90 (+92%), Quality Score 60/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002352 calculated?
We run S.F. Holding Co. Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥58.90, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.3 % above its aggregate fair value. S.F. Holding Co. Ltd currently trades 48 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd (002352)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 30, 2026 and stands at ¥30.67. Our model-based fair value is ¥58.90, about +92% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with S.F. Holding Co. Ltd right now?
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (¥30.67 to ¥76.57) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd (002352) come from?
Earnings per share at S.F. Holding Co. Ltd grew +9.0 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.8 %, EBIT margin +2.2 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd (002352)?
The market capitalisation of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd is 155B CNY (≈ $23.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd (002352)?
The price-to-sales ratio of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd is 0.51 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd (002352)?
Earnings per share at S.F. Holding Co. Ltd are ¥2.16 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd (002352)?
The dividend yield of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd is 3.0% (payout 42.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd (002352)?
The net margin of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd is 3.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd (002352)?
The return on equity (ROE) of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd is 10.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd (002352)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd (002352)?
The operating margin of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd is 5.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at S.F. Holding Co. Ltd (002352)?
Revenue at S.F. Holding Co. Ltd is growing +5.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at S.F. Holding Co. Ltd (002352)?
Earnings per share at S.F. Holding Co. Ltd are growing −17.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does S.F. Holding Co. Ltd (002352) carry?
The net debt of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd is 3.6B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 27, 2026