Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. stock $117, price $198, that is 41.0% below the price, quality 83 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $82.79 – $204.31 · fair‑value band $88.93 – $144.60 · the $197.69 price screens above the $116.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Expeditors International of Washington, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics services in the Americas, North Asia, South Asia, Europe, and Middle East, Africa, and India.
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The company offers airfreight services, such as air freight consolidation and forwarding; ocean freight and ocean services, including ocean freight consolidation, direct ocean forwarding, and order management; customs brokerage and other services, import, intra-continental ground transportation and delivery, and warehousing and distribution services; and customs clearance, purchase order management, vendor consolidation, time-definite transportation services, temperature-controlled transit, cargo insurance, specialized cargo monitoring and tracking, and other logistics solutions.
It also provides optimization, trade compliance consulting, cargo insurance, cargo security, and solutions. In addition, it acts as a freight consolidator or as an agent for the airline that carries the shipment.
Further, the company provides ancillary services that include preparation of shipping and customs documentation, packing, crating, insurance services, and the preparation of documentation to comply with local export and import laws.
The company was incorporated in 1979 and is headquartered in Bellevue, Washington.
Stock analysis
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) currently trades at $197.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $116.66, 41% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $146.10 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $197.69 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $24.47, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $88.93 (bear) to $144.60 (bull), the price of $197.69 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 83/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. reported revenue of $11.1B in FY2025 versus $16.5B in FY2021, a compound −9.5%/yr. Reported net income was $814M in FY2025, compounding −12.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $26.2B Large · P/E ratio 28.2 · P/S ratio 2.18 · EPS (TTM) $7.00 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 7.6% · Return on equity 42.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 24.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 70 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −41%, EXPD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$88.93Fair Value $116.66Bull$144.60
Price $197.69 · Downside -41.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($4.59 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
SaleDaniel R WallPresident and CEO6,100 shares at $145.07$884,927Feb 27, 2026
SaleBlake R BellPresident Global Business Dev10,351 shares at $144.08$1.5MFeb 27, 2026
SaleMark A EmmertDirector5,400 shares at $135.25$730,350Nov 7, 2025
Plus 8 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.3% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+8.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.0% vs 9.7%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 10%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.0% a year for the price and +1.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Moderate moat from operations supports strength in customs brokerage amid shifting trade rules, while thin evidence and cyclical freight exposure remain the main weak point.
Main risk: Digital freight brokers such as Flexport and Uber Freight could capture spot-market customers from Expeditors with platform-based booking and force lower prices or margins in simpler shipments.
Bull case: Expeditors could leverage its in-house technology platform and licensed-broker expertise to integrate digital tools faster than pure-play platforms and retain complex compliance work amid ongoing trade complexity.
Bear case: If digital platforms erode spot volumes and trade tensions sharply cut China-related flows, Expeditors could face sustained pressure on utilization, pricing power and growth in its core forwarding and brokerage services.
Expeditors has strengthened its customs brokerage and compliance offerings, which perform well amid shifting trade rules and supply chain complexity. A recent leadership shift dedicates focus to professional services to support further growth there, while airfreight gains from technology shipments. Our models see the stock as overvalued, so does the business benefit more from ongoing regulatory demands than it stands to lose if freight markets normalize?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 210 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EXPD
Frequently asked questions
Is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $116.66 versus a price of $197.69, about 41% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EXPD?
Our model-based fair value for Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. is $116.66 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $197.69.
What is the quality score of EXPD?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. has a Quality Score of 83/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $116.66 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $88.93, optimistic scenario $144.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $116.66, about 41% lower versus a price of $197.69 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $88.93, optimistic scenario $144.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD)?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $12.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. pay a dividend?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 0.80% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +13.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.9 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EXPD use?
Our models discount Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.07, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. that is +13.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. grew +2.9 % a year. The price currently implies +13.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (+13.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.63 %: that much free cash flow Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. it is $116.66 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $197.69. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, EXPD trades above its calculated fair value: price $197.69, fair value $116.66, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EXPD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($197.69); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($116.66). For Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. the two are $81.03 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. worth?
The market values Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. at about $26.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $197.69; our models calculate a fair value of $116.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EXPD?
Our models span a range for Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.: cautious scenario $88.93, base $116.66, optimistic $144.60 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $197.69). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EXPD?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.2 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $116.66 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 22.7. Other multiples: PEG 3.2, P/B 11.1, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 19.7.
What is the PEG ratio of EXPD?
The PEG ratio of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. is 3.18 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 42.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 83/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EXPD from its 52-week high?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. trades at $197.69, about 3% below its 52-week high of $204.31 and 48% above the low of $133.15 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $116.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, Deutsche Post AG, FedEx Corporation, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $197.69, calculated fair value $116.66 (−41%), Quality Score 83/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EXPD calculated?
We run Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $116.66, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $197.69. Our model-based fair value is $116.66, about 41% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. right now?
A high-quality business (quality 83/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($144.60). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Where does the earnings growth of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) come from?
Earnings per share at Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. grew +10.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.8 %, EBIT margin −0.6 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD)?
The market capitalisation of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. is $26.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. is 2.18 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD)?
Earnings per share at Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. are $7.00 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD)?
The dividend yield of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. is 0.8% (payout 22.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD)?
The net margin of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. is 7.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. is 42.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. is 24.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD)?
The operating margin of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD)?
Revenue at Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. is growing +32.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD)?
Earnings per share at Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. are growing +51.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) hold?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. holds more cash than debt, $744M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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